Currency Trading has been difficult......apparantly

This article in Bloomberg caught my eye. I have had my best ever start to the year, as the work over the past 6 years has bedded in. It has been tough with the tight ranges, but my  'Lines in the Sky'  methodology continues to provide measurable storyboards and directional cues. May it long continue, although I accept everything has its day in the sun.

EURUSD

I suggested yesterday that consolidation under the 80day FLD might occur, and it seems that we have a triangle ready to feed the next drop down. If this is a 'b' wave then a measured 162% extension from the top, takes price to the Monthly Pivot at 1.3580. Not a bad place to bank the shorts and sit out the weekend and my lecture day on Monday. Catch up later.

EURUSD

Not a lot of upside created in price overnight, although momentum has reset enough for me to be interested again in being short. Price has held under the 80day & 5day FLDs, which brings the 10day, 40day & 160day FLDs into the 'ladder', sequentially. I am looking for the 20day to be hit somewhere on its route and to do that, price will have to get through the rest first, along with the 20/50 & 100day SMAs. A tall order if that lot wants to be support, but a lot of stops in a tight space if that is what the market wants as fuel. For now, the 5/10 & 10/20 day trends are downhill, so I'll keep following them down until they turn up - the momentum study on the 12hr chart (last) suggests there is some room to go, albeit price is fighting that new 80/160day bullish trend, quite fitting given I am looking for an end of month low in the cyclic phasing work.

EURUSD

Frustrating but profitable! Have banked the added shorts from earlier and gone flat again. Same reason as earlier with no progression downhill and 1hr+2hr momentum studies oversold. These may or may not bounce price at this key support but if this is a retracement downhill, they are usually strong enough to be worth backing. If the price pushes on down, well, I'll have to wait until they rest themselves higher, regardless. Will post again when moms are overbought.

EURUSD

Have banked the longs and re-building short positions again. Price sat below yesterday's low and may consolidate here to burn up oversold momentum. I have the 10/20day trend now turning negative and any thrust down, could catch lower, so I am short only and will cover on a new high.

EURUSD

Price has stalled at the 160day FLD (gold line), which is also the regression channel perimeter of the move up from 1.3476 and above the 20,50 & 100day SMAs. Although the longer term momentum studies have only just got going to the downside, I have both the 1hr & 2hr studies oversold with price action stalled at this bus stop. I have taken the opportunity to bank all the shorts taken out above this point and covered the rest, whilst I wait for these two shorter term studies to reset themselves in a retracement or otherwise. Whether I have been too cautious or not is not an issue with Claims out this afternoon. Flat and content for now and hoping for another stab downhill from a higher vantage point or similar, but with any uphill momentum worked through by the market. With price under the daily pivot and the 1/5/10day trend bands all facing downhill, and with longer term momentum studies up to the daily, all teetering in overbought, there is no option for me to buy this. Catch up later.

EURUSD

With the ongoing saga developing in Ukraine, it is interesting to watch this EURUSD price action coming into a cyclic high, before my 80day Cycle low is due at month end (see yesterday's phasing report). The momentum study here obviously needs to rest at some point, and it is this downward storyboard that I have been interested in since Friday. I have overlaid the 20,50,100 & 200day SMAs, for a sense of purpose, and if price is to reach the FLD trough in the 1.3500 zone, it would need to clear all of these SMAs and the 160day FLD too. The point being, there is stiff support in that 1.3600-1.3650 zone, but clear that and the 200day SMA at 1.3400 must be the initial target. Given that this is below the annual pivot at 1.3471, I'd expect any impulsive move to be a little more dynamic than of late. We shall see, but no room up here for me to think long but that 1.3600-1.3650 area will be key in assessing any progress in either direction.

EURUSD

Not a lot has changed since Friday, accept for my underlying trend indicators showing negative divergence in the lower time frames and overbought conditions up to a daily chart. As far as my 80day cycle is progressing, I am going to assume that the end of the month is on target and that last week's low was the 7th 10day low come early. As such, this is likely the 8th 10day high and the next drop should be into the 10,20,40 & 80 day lows combined.

I have marked the 20day fld trough with green arrows and I am targeting that zone for my shorts to be banked. To get there, price will have to pass through the 5day, 10day and 160 day FLDs, the latter providing firm support last week. If it does break this time, the 20day should be an easy target but the upward slope of the 160day, suggests more upside in due course to at least retest it. So, long from the 20day trough at the end of the month is my goal, although possibly catching the bottom of a wave 2.

I am running two EW counts, both looking for a move down to fit the Cyclic Phasing. The first calls for this to be the 5th leg of a 'b' wave expanding diagonal, and the second as a 'b' wave in a zig zag. I think the second count fits better with the phasing but that assumes to the 20day FLD holds in the second chart. So, I remain bullish longer term, but bearish until my shorts are banked - now is that biased??

EURUSD

Price has made it back to the bottom of the diagonal, where the Monthly & Weekly Pivots R1 sit alongside the 1.3672 square root progression line, but wasting precious time on a Friday afternoon looking at it. If it breaks and makes it to 1.3585 area, I'll bank shorts and come back Tuesday after lectures. I just hope it does not sit here all evening!

EURUSD

It is the waiting that makes this job so tiring sometimes. Regardless, price continues to sip at the 80day FLD, hopefully for some energy! The 20day FLD is beckoning nearer the bottom of the 80day price envelope and I am sure the market would prefer to buy down there than up here. So, notwithstanding the grind higher, I only have eyes for something cheaper. Looking like an expanding diagonal on the 15 min chart, so a breach of that and a turn down in the trend band and I'll be happier.

EURUSD

If my Hurst Cyclic Phasing continues to hold this 80day cycle together, the 80 day low is due at the end of February. That low Wednesday, could have been the 7th 10day low, but it would be very early and I'll work on the basis, it is not. As such, I am looking for that low to come in next week, but the rise out of that, then likely to be a 'b' wave, providing room for the final drop into the 80day low to unfold. These ends of cycles are a little fraught with emotion, not least of all, mine, with the possibility that the cycle is already over and it is my bones being picked clean. I do not think it is over and the next drop should be part of a final move down, and as such, there should be a persistent impulsive move to prove it. For sure, if all goes well, catching the thrust out of that low in early March should be very rewarding indeed.

EURUSD

Little expanding diagonal there on the 3min chart, having broken out of yesterdays consolidation. A break below yesterday's high, would move price in the bearish direction.

EURUSD

Just waiting for the drop.

EURUSD

Well, the direct route down to the 10day FLD has not been taken, but the drawn out price action yesterday suggests a different larger prize. A decline now to retest the Annual Pivot would push through the 10day, on the way to reach the 20day FLD, now in trough territory below - see orange line and green arrows. Looking for a move down towards the pink trend line that joins the last two 20day FLD troughs near 1.3500. I'll bank there and reassess the momentum study (hope!!) as again, the next 10day low is due 17th/18th next week.

EURUSD

Bigger picture count.

EURUSD

EW Count updated - have tidied up the 'Blue' waves to make the overall pattern more symmetrical. The count still looks for a commitment southbound to get the 'C' wave on the map.

EURUSD - just a little room to breathe

Here is what I am looking at on a 48pip range bar chart. May or may not hold, but giving just enough room to breathe.

EURUSD

Without retracing to the 10day FLD, and with the trend band still in sell mode, I have to assume this is a deep 'b' wave back up here. It has snagged my short cover, but I have just banked that and shifted it above the 1.3682 high from yesterday. This may in fact be another 'c' wave up instead, but that would still mean a decline afterwards, so looking to catch any downdraft to retest that annual pivot. Anything more exciting than probing around the 80day FLD and I'll sit with the longs until the low is in and try and lose the shorts instead next week.

Euro's fate is now in Germany's Hands

From Market watch

EURUSD

Price has made it back to the weekly FLD (purple) that was cut yesterday, having bounced off the 160 day FLD. The 5/10day trend band is still bearish and I am counting this as a 'B' wave correction for now as the 10day cyclic low is not due until early next week. The momentum study is not overbought yet, but I am starting to short again with cover above the 'b' wave high there at 1.36515. Target is the red 10day FLD or lower.