#US$: Elliott Wave

Spun in log scale, the Gann grid is based on the initial 'A' wave in time and distance. Note the subsequent adherence to minor degree grid lines down to the blue dashed 25%. Pretty cool over all them years. Note also, the symmetry in the grid sqaure widths for waves A-C. I have marked out 'D' & 'E' with their own squares too, for timing. The world's markets seem to be playing out in diagonals, so no wonder the US$ appears to be playing the same formation. So, I got this as playing out the 'b' in 'c' of wave 'D', with that 'b' leg looking like a flat inside a zigzag, respectively. The momentum study suggests the count is valid, but maybe too early for the turn up - see previous (light blue) momentum study position at 'b' wave turns. Also, the MMA wave at this degree is still bearish, so anticipate lots of chopping over D-E to sort it out to the upside, but this could take years! If the 'a' wave rise in 'D' corresponded with the 2008/2009 crash, then the 'c' of 'D' is going to hurt too, but then the 'E' leg down would correspond with a possible rise again in the markets until its conclusion. What if the 'E leg is a thrusting ending diagonal. Good hobby this!!

On the daily chart, the large blue legends reflect the monthly chart. I am counting this as either red 'c' of blue 'b' done and we are already on our way up, or there is an expanding diagonal still to play out its 3rd, 4th and 5th waves. This latter count gives room for that monthly momentum study to mature to the downside, although I have to say the same study in this daily chart does look like it has already nested. Maybe a very deep wave 2 would achieve the same result in the top chart. In addition, the drop thus far in red 'c' of 'b' hit the 100% extension of red 'a' already and it was a very neat hit too. So don't know, but expect softening in the dollar whilst the MMA wave is bearish, until the top perimeter line of that possible ending diagonal is taken out. I also like the idea that red a-b took 2 grid squares of last year's high to low, and if the diagonal did play out, it would also likely be 2 squares for red b-c.

Readers will know that I am playing the same ending diagonal in reverse in the EURUSD, so I am obviously biased in interpretation. Makes for pretty pictures though.

EURUSD

Looks like my triangle, just turned into the 'b' leg of a contracting diagonal (unless the drop has started and hoodwinked me again!). Not much difference in strategy though. Just holding on till price gets to 1.3682. That move took me flat, but I am banking some of those shorts for a small gain, to take me net long into the weekend.

EURUSD

Just like this pair to leave it till late on a Friday with the weekend upon us. But, my count is still holding and with only 5 waves up in 'c' of the 5th in the 5th (or C, if that is how it ends up being counted) to go, anywhere around that 1.3650-1.3680 area could be a good place to be edged short for the weekend. It might make it close tonight in the run in, so I'll be keeping my eyes peeled for that perfect diagonal but banking some regardless before the broker shuts shop.

EURUSD: 'b' wave triangle?

It has been messy, but looks like a triangle in the 'b' position in the 5th. Still 5 waves up to go? I think I am going to be trying to hang in there for 1.3682 being the larger of the targets and all this getting ready. Shorts are banked from this morning and now sat under the daily pivot.

EURUSD

Battle going on at yesterday's high. Given the lack of any spike yet, I am pulling back the count to 1 & 2 done in 'c' of this 5th leg up in the ending diagonal. Given I had all the best of intentions to count this in to the close, it is really messy and I am hoping for something cleaner into the top.

EURUSD

Is this 'c' leg taking an expanding diagonal as well - is it me or are they everywhere?

EURUSD

Have covered my longs here. Progress is tortuously slow, but at least in the right direction. Targets seem to be 20-60 pips from here but may need a retracement to get there. I am trying to hang on for a thrust up to reach the parts that seem to need reaching but flat from here in case of something nasty.

EURUSD: last count for the day

Bit of a tidy of the coiling structure. I make it up in an extension from here, so will know quite quickly in Asia if right or wrong me thinks. I have been looking at all my studies and I am still finding it difficult to find any medium term bearish pictures to print. I expect a retracement after this high is in and as a reaction to the whole move from 1.3294, it will probably be emotive, but I wonder how many traders have hung on short from there and might be caught short if the retracement is not as deep as expected. Just musing.....

~#elliot EURUSD

Need to wait for Asia to open, I think. This is where I have got to with two consecutive running flats in a far from pretty, nesting 1-2s. Would set up a nice thrust up into the 1.3650-1.3700 area as discussed this morning. The nesting fits with the ending diagonal thesis at the end of this, so hope it all pans out.

#Elliott EURUSD

Given all this coiling (assumption!), here is an attempt at trying to micromanage the count in advance. Destined to fail at every turn of course, but always interesting to play.

EURUSD

Looks like we are off in this last leg up. Won't be writing during this as need to concentrate. Will post on the other side. Good luck everyone.

EURUSD: volume drop

Could be the Thanksgiving of course, but the move up into the ending diagonal is being accompanied by a drop in volume and MACD divergence here on the 24 pip range bar chart. If my short term count is correct, we should have another leg up. If volume stays under water, I'll be banking those longs before they get wet too.

EURUSD

So, I think we got 'A' done this morning and now an expanding flat in 'B'. I'll be looking for the move up to end in a diagonal of some sort, but usually get whipsawed by wave iii, so may be out earlier than need to be if the market plays hardball.

#eurusd

The expanding diagonal in the 5th of the 5th is looking okay this morning with a useful zip up. We still need 5 waves in the 'c' of the 'abc' movement and there seems to be too many legends to fit the space, but they should be there somewhere. The monthly pivot stands at 1.3629, the weekly R1 at 1.36223, the 61.8% retracement of the drop from the top at 1.3623, but the a=c equivalencies range from 1.3650 to 1.3680 ish with various grid lines just above. So, plenty of stops to be taken on US thanksgiving and maybe I'll just hang on in there long till the end of the day or there is some exhaustion move that overthrows the diagonal on both degrees.

EURUSD

Looks like an expander. Have moved net long on this pull back with possible 100 pips available here. Leg 5 in an expanding diagonal should be greater than leg 3. Equivalency gets to 1.3650 and the 'a-c'='c-e' of the bigger diagonal up from 1.3294 comes in at 1.3682. So, 1.3650 to 1.3682 is my goal to loose shorts again.

EURUSD

Not particularly thrusty - can count as a retracment with an expanded flat in the middle. 5th up to come inside a bigger diagonal, up to Monthly Pivot? Have covered shorts again (getting tiring) and will let loose nearer pivot if get chance. Probably over-managing but don't want to be on the wrong side of a 5th in 5th in 5th spiker, but being on the right side would be fantastic!

US$

Price back at the 45 degree line. A punch up, and out of the expanding diagonal should seal EURUSD fate to downside and vice vercer. Worth keeping an eye on.

US$

Price back at the 45 degree line. A punch up, and out of the expanding diagonal should seal EURUSD fate to downside and vice vercer. Worth keeping an eye on.

EURUSD

Diagonal hanging in there for now. Have drawn in the 61.8%s for the last leg up and for the whole move from 1.3294. I'll take either today if there is a quick move downhill. Given I am looking for a reaction to a 5 wave count, anything less than thrusty would negate the count quite quickly me thinks.

EURUSD: Speedline study

This is a speedline study of the move down from the top at 1.3831 and the response up from 1.3294. The red arrows point out the 85.4% lines and the remainder are grid lines of the 'A' wave depth as discussed many many times. So, we have 5 waves in an expanding diagonal (well it looks like 5) approaching the 85.4% down from the top and the one up from the bottom has not managed to create an actionable base to date. Break the one under price and we should see something worthwhile, but leach to the right and build out that triangle and range trading will likely be the order of the day, as if this price action was not boring enough!

EURUSD

Another day and another lens to look through. Price is pushing on up to that monthly pivot that I have been going on about all month, seemingly. As far as I can tell, we are in the 5th leg in the 5th wave and either in the 3rd or 5th wave inside the ending diagonal. So, somewhere around here or nearer the monthly pivot, anticipate a pop which would likely trigger a fall of equal magnitude in scale to the expanding diagonal formation from its origin or the prior drop from the top. I have marked up a 'b' count for the expanding diagonal this morning as an alternative to the leading formation yesterday. Either way, a test of the low would be a great end to the month or beginning of the new!

EURUSD

Looks like that was all we got in a retracement, but it is looking very tired and possibly in a diagonal to finish matters off (given that is where they occur). Staying short and looking to increase position on confirmation of breakdown.

EURUSD

Is that the 'b' wave on short term chart done? Looking for 'c' wave down to see what impact it has on the bigger timeframes and whether to close shorts.

EURUSD

Price has made it back to the blue dashed line as suggested this morning, in a retracement formation on this 4 pip range bar chart. The question is however, whether this is the first part in a bigger pull back, which I believe it is. I am staying net short and see how this afternoon goes.

This second chart shows the momentum study only just getting going after that 5 waves up on the 12pip range bar chart.

That 5waves up above, is the last strike up in this 24  pip range bar chart, which looks like the 5th wave up in what I am calling 'a', with that retracement angle just below price now.

So overall, I am looking for a 'b' wave down of which this bit so far today, looks like 'a' with 'b' & 'c' to go. We shall see.

EURUSD: big picture

Overall on the monthly time frame, I am counting this move up from 1.2041 as a 'b' wave in wave 'C' down. As such, the 'b' wave is full of complexity and even at a daily level, not close enough to the action for me. The wretching is undoubtedly the pull of the eventual 'C' leg down vs 'b' up is likely not complete, but I think we have a new high to come above 1.3831, after a test of that 1.3294 low or a new one - I don't mind which one really.

The weekly is a retracement study of the assumed initial ABC drop off the all time high - price action rolling under that last gold angle line but dragging itself up the green inverse ladder but with negative divergence into that 1.3831 high.







On the daily, I am working an expanding diagonal pattern into the top of that wave 'b' from the first chart, which helps to explain the price action (for me that is!).

EURUSD

Following on then from this morning's action plan. After what looked like 5 waves up from yesterday's low, we have a first strike down, which I am calling 'a'. Look out for a new high in an expanded flat 'b' wave to set up a quicker 'c' wave down. If there is no new high, then could turn into a flat or zigzag, or triangle of course. At the moment, it does look like a retracement to the prior 5 waves there in the chart and the blue trend line would be a neat target to look at dropping shorts, but I expect that line to break as this '5' up is the 5th wave up in a bigger wave. So, watch out for acceleration below that blue line. If that happens, then this 'a' wave down is likely only 'a' of 'A'. Catch up later when nearing the end of the retracement or there is better clarity as to what degree this retracement is in.

EURUSD

Quick update on my FLD study (Hurst). Some may recall my previous two charts from the low at 1.3294, noting that the green 20 day (1month) FLD would act as a magnet to price action. It has been a drawn out affair which may or may not be finished, but price just got there this morning. In doing so, the thick purple, 40 day, FLD has maneuvered itself above the 20 day and may be the next target, but first, maybe a drop again into the weekly and 2 weekly FLD's sat below. I have a 'b' wave approach to this particular chart as can be seen, although with this market, very tentatively!

EURUSD: KISS

Time for a zoom out at the daily MMA wave. We got some mixed messages. Firstly, the wave is bullish in formation and price is above the 50 period orange FLD. However, the MACD is still bearish and the momentum study has not nested a low, suggesting unfinished business. Given the 'abc' formation prior to the drop and the symmetry of the wave action into that top, another drop into 'C' down has got to be kept in mind. From where that drop occurs is another matter, but best keep this chart in mind if a bearish wind gets a blowin.

EURUSD

One thing is for sure: this market is not trying to make it easy for anyone! This count on the 24 pip range bar study is courtesy of Aerocom at Daily FX. The blue 'B' wave is made up of a running flat, which makes sense of the 5 legs down into 'B', which I warned last week was a fractal of an earlier run. I do not like the length of green 'b' in this count and prefer a more straightforward 'abc' up for 'A' and a 'B' down, but then, that does not work if it was a 5 down into 'B'. Either way, we end up with this leg up now being a 'C', if we make a new high in due course. However, as we seem to have 5 legs up already and negative divergence, I am calling that 'a' in 'C' and expect a move down into lower 1.3400s now for another 'b' leg. If it catches fire and turns into the downtrend that nearly everyone wants to count, then fine by me as I am net short anyways, but expect resistance between that monthly S1 again at 1.3425 and weekly S1 at 1.3443.

EURUSD

Price now approaching yesterday's high. I am releasing 1/3rd of longs here and edging short. If we get a new high in this leg up from the 1.3398, that would be 5 legs on the 12 pip chart. Busy morning already!

EURUSD

Following on from this morning's post, here is the 4 pip range bar study (as opposed to the 12 pip in the last). I can see 5 waves up here now since yesterday's low, so looking for a retracement pattern, instead of a triangle. EURUSD does love an expanded flat, so look out for that fake out to the upside if it occurs. With that 5 up, I am just going to sit on my hands, until I can see 3 waves back that looks in proportion; the next wave up should be worth the patience.

EURUSD

I'll do a full analysis after the school run, as I did not do a weekend report due to other work commitments. In the interim, I am flat at the moment, having covered my longs again last night at 1.3532, and thus far relatively happy that I did. Given the momentum going on since yesterday, I thought this might be a 'b' wave and maybe it will triangle here for a bit. I can see the 3 waves up from 1.3398, so maybe a triangle to separate out the next leg up to the monthly pivot (my goal for the week!) is on the cards. Alternatively, it is just a slow start uphill in what maybe a 5th. Either way, I'll be trying to release those shorts as close to yesterday's low as I can, with cover placed under today's low when it happens; the idea being to leave the longs naked for any breakout to the upside but secure if I am wrong.

EURUSD

A long day for those pips but I am covering the longs here and will look again tomorrow. Just seems a bit anemic and maybe a 'b' wave up. Rather sleep than watch this. Back in morning.

EURUSD

Seems to have turned up here. Bit of a boring day, but some acceleration into US close would be useful before Asia kicks in. Monthly Pivot is the initial goal and reassess wave action from there, as long as Weekly Pivot and daily pivot hold to upside. Just under WP (Red line -P) will be stop when it looks safe.

EURUSD

Still looks corrective and either done or 'a' down done on short term chart. Either way, hoping to catch ongoing ride uphill, if it is coming. Price at support provided by retracement angles off the 1.27541 low with MMA wave still bullish.

EURUSD

Just back from lecture. 12pip range bar study shows MMA wave in bullish mode after a pull back. The momentum study is oversold in short term. Price is at daily and weekly pivot. Keep it simple this morning: following a slightly higher high on short term chart at 1.35196, I am dropping shorts with stop below that 1.3506 low. If price breaks above the daily pivot, I'd like to see that weekly R1 and monthly pivot hit above.

EURUSD

Well, my net shorts did not last long! Price right at the door to a vertical spiker as discussed yesterday at that low. I am flat now, so no hassle over the weekend and will just wait for another bottom or top to make a decision as to whether to drop longs or shorts.

EURUSD: 3.43pm

My net short stop, hung in there with 1 pip to go, so feeling a bit more comfortable down here. Just noticed the 100% extension of that first draft down is exactly 1.3294 - how cool would that be for a long position if it held?? Back next week.