EURUSD: 3.41pm

Shorts banked on way down and longs banked on spike up. Tidy end to the year. Now just a little net long but mostly neutral here. Price could not hold below D3 and is sat on top of D2 now. A move to D1 or T4 would have me out completely and back after New Year.

Triangle formation if price now returns to T4 for 'd'?

EURUSD: 9.52am

In Pitchfork land, price seems to be adhering to the formations here. So, question: are we in a double top or an 'abc' B wave? May have to wait to the New Year to find out! Maybe have a look at the Bigger picture posts and see what a break of D8 would mean!

EURUSD:8.40am

Price has now fallen to D3 and is being held there for now. If D3 breaks to the downside then D4 will be next. For now though, possible T4 is an upside target as it has not yet started rolling downhill.

The monthly My-Wave has more to do to turn over and the price action is doing a good job of calling these moves of late, corrective. The 30min SMI has bottomed out after what looks like a 5th move down into an expanding diagonal. Whether this is an ending or leading diagonal matters not today, as the drop provided an opportunity to bank some shorts and edge long. A break above the top perimeter may see acceleration but watching what happens in the next SMI cycle uphill is key here in conjunction with the 'D' lines.

EURUSD Big Picture

D10 was 'cut' conclusively in Sept 2011. The sequential targets for D10 are D9 & D11. Price has been aggressively flirting with D9 ever since but the latest flurry since Sept 2012 has been as D9 was calling a 'top'. The inability to 'cut' D9 here may signal a last gasp for now, as D8 has been tagged at the same time, after calling the bottom in July very accurately. With both D9 and D8 holding out to the downside, the D11 target mentioned above, may turn out to be the real goal or at least appear to be (note double bottom possibility!). D8 was 'cut' to the downside in Dec 2011 and has not been beaten back to date. If it holds here, breaking down D6 should provide added momentum for D7, as D7 is both a sequential target for D8 & D6. This is far enough of a target for me for now.

This is the same chart as above but squeezed to emphasise the bottoming cycle of D10. Having been 'cut' in 2011, price is reacting to the failure by testing it. The red slash above D10 shows the distance to travel to see the retracement momentum out the other side. I prefer the double bottom at D7, then a fast thrust back to D9 before dropping to D11 during the latter part of 2013. It looks quite possible that D11 provides a diagonal backbone right into late 2014 although D9 may shepherd price over before D10. Thought it would be interesting to highlight how displaced averages provide a series of long term possibilities. Although the actual route to come is for the market to decide and not me, it is absolutely guaranteed that these 'D' lines will be the gateways to that eventual journey. The goal for me in 2013 is to follow the market as it decides whether to rebuff the gates or pass through them, knowing that the next sequential number will be the outcome of that decision. the higher the number, the bigger the reward!

EURUSD: 3.08pm

Looks like we may be close to another drive down. Overlap city this, all the way! Joining up the turning points suggests an expanding diagonal in the 'C' wave. Would like to get down to 1.3020 ish with next drive down where a number of important points collide. As long as price stays under the daily pivot and T4, I'll keep shorting.

This is a more conservative count but looks possible as 'iv' is meant to overlap 'i'. Looks compressed but 5 waves down in a 'v' the and I'll take shorts off higher if need be.

EURUSD: 7.31am

Price action seems to be following the EW count as proposed. We got a drop yesterday and now what looks like a retest of the diagonal formation, I have counted as 'B'.

My-wave is still stoically formed to the upside and resisting these downside forays thus far. I am keeping my 'A-B, 1-5' count as corrective until such time as the wave turns down. This would require a persistent drop which has not occurred yet. Like the rest of the market I am sure, I keep banking the spikes down and reloading when the momentum indicator goes overbought but this will only work until it does not.

EURUSD 11.24am

Quick update - seems to me that we are thereabouts on 'b' now and 'c' down should be upon us. D2 has been peppered on a backtest and there are plenty of targets below in D3 & D4 for starters.

EURUSD: 5.55pm

Last post till after Christmas me thinks.

D2 has been broken and bar the face ripper downhill, everything else seems to be going according to plan. Initial touch of the Pitchfork off the assumed 'A-B' gives us 1.3099 ish - this is the 1.62x extension of A-B and a Gann line, so will take that if offered in a last minute thrust tonight. Don't want to leave trades open but no reason to close as yet. D3 & co is where we should end up but unlikely tonight!

EURUSD: 11.58am

Just been sat here hoping to close out and forget about charts for a couple of weeks but this grind just continues. Given the '3's, I am going with this count and looking for 5 down from here in 'c' of 'C' for possibly 'A' or '1'. About 1.3020-1.3000 would be great. Any chance Mr Market??

D1 safely passed and now price massing at T4 - my trend line. D2 should be a straightforward target, but of more interest of course is if D2 can be passed. The cluster of D3,D4 & D6 below, could happen quite quickly, albeit that would require a 262% extension of the 1st wave down.

My-Wave has started to turn now and price sits at the monthly median line. As I said at the end of last week and earlier this week, the wave was 'fat' and ready for plucking. A retracement alone was worth up to 300 pips and we are well on our way. Merry Christmas everyone and look forward to continuing this journey next year.

EURUSD: 5.35pm

D1 providing resistance again here. Obvious triangle building if it can not be beat. Looks like back-test of regression channel median line and now the perimeter, but we shall see.

EURUSD:11.49 am

Wave 2 stands at 67.5% retracement of wave 1 at the moment but internally 'c' is at 162% extension of wave 'a'.

Looks like an ending diagonal on the 1min chart. Wave 3 or C to come next I hope. The little pink arrow highlights how deep this retracement has been as the 'bullish' stack has opened up again - this being on top of the monthly wave in the first chart. Next wave down needs to slice right through this area and with some venom to pull this wave downhill or something else is up me thinks.

EURUSD: 8.01am

Fib fan off the first move up from 1.2659 has been providing the bounce points in the wave up. See higher of the 2 green dashed lines. A test of that stands around 1.3020 at present, which is also where that T6/T7 confluence sits. As I noted yesterday, notwithstanding the wave up, T6 has recently slipped under T7 - shorter term trend is falling behind the scenes! Strong test point me thinks. The second, lower, green dashed line uses the more legitimate wave A or 1 up from 1.2659 and sits lower at present and untouched as yet. This is why I have put my limit order to close my shorts around here, just in case price darts through. If not, well good place to bank and reassess at line above.

EURUSD:6.54am

The rejection of the D8/D9 confluence yesterday was a perfect salve for me. Not only is it another confirmation of my work but also started repaying the lost time in missing the 2nd half of the wave up! Lessons learned for this self-tutored trader!

Closer up, we seem to have been back testing the regression channel up from 1.2875 and D1, D2 & T4 are all between here and the Gann line 1.3091. If the former breaks, then D3 should be the target, so I have moved my limit order to 1.2960, being just above two more 'Gann steps' down and approx in the area of the fibfan (off 1.2875), D3 & D4 confluence. Catch up later.

EURUSD 10.02am

In all the excitement of this drive uphill, T6 has slipped under T7, suggesting a downward stack could be in the offing here if T4 & T5 fall with price. A retest of that zone would seem likely given the switch but some confirmation is still awaited.

EURUSD: 9.30am

When price crossed D7 a few weeks back, the D8/D9 confluence or D6 were the natural targets in the sequence. Given D7 only got a cursory tick back and D6, no look in at all, I am looking for rewards to the downside. We are pretty much there at D8/D9 now, so shorting here with an eye on holding that confluence.

Price is also pushing the yearly rolling regression channel and nearing the topping zone for the displaced cycle indicator too.

Negative Divergence towards the top of the diagonal - good enough place to try out for me.

EURUSD: 5.05pm

It does not matter how much I 'tut', I have missed out on half this wave and what annoys me more, is that at each stage up from 1.3050 (where I closed my longs), I could have joined again. Something to muse on that, but for now, there is that spike out for the triangle and I am looking for the SMI cycle to cull some higher lows.

EURUSD: 2.30pm

I have even been able to get some Christmas shopping in! Oh my, scratch my eyeballs with a pin why don't you!

So, My-wave is big and fat - Christmas Turkey style. This wave covers the trends on various time frames up to just over a month in duration. I have marked the higher lows within the wave and at 300 pips thick; a minimum retracement within this wave is the play I am after. If the wave turns too, then fantastic. This pre-Christmas muddling on the top of the wave for the tiddlers is not worth the mental effort as the surprise gifts should be to the downside not upside. Well that is what I have been trying to convince myself anyways!

Of interest to me is that an 'in-wave' retracement to 2900, would pick up all the straggling 'D' lines as covered previously, up to D6. A move to D7 would involve My-Wave rolling to the downside, so anticipating some tension in that zone before capitulation or otherwise.

EURUSD: 9.36am

If it is a triangle and it does look like one, it is meant to be the penultimate move under EW rules. SMI seems to suggest it is one, so a little more up before down perhaps. Either way, still looking to short this.

EURUSd: 6.37pm

So, it might just be me, but I am somewhat excited at what might happen when that ledge gives way. Just a tickle, maybe a trickle or bulls in a pickle?? Don't know but keen to find out!

EURUSD: Elliot Wave count

Too much time on my hands today and been reviewing the EW count. Given the slight new high, there is a very real possibility we have an big Expanded Flat going on here. All this chop chop since 1.3171 in September gets me to thinking that my 'b' wave up before 'c' down thesis, in big 'B' before big 'C' to complete the 'E' leg of the triangle since 2008, is on.

I have been playing with this over the last week a bit too much, but the SMI cluster is intriguing me. The blue 'weekly' SMI is in a high relative position to prior highs and the 'in-between' SMI's are all in a waterfall position, if the market so chose to take advantage. Those in-betweeners may just fall, leaving the weekly in position, but any strong rise would surely benefit from a reset, at the very least. As I have been stating for a few days now, I just can not go long with this thesis perfectly possible.

EURUSD: 4.26pm

Waiting......

James Arthur

Love it or loathe it, XFactor 2012 has fuelled a future world phenonmenon in my humble opinion. James Arthur's renditions of Shontelles' Impossible, Frankie Goes to Hollywood's Power of Love and Nina Simone's Feeling Good were outstanding.

EURUSD: 1.45pm

Well, this is rubbish on the surface, but with a squint and bearish bias on my part, I am at least imagining an 'a' & 'b' just about complete. If we get a 'C' at 262% extension of 'ab' then I get to the bottom of the expanding diagonal, D1, D3 & T4. I'll probably unhitch there if it happens and see what the reaction looks like.

At the moment, the weekly wave looks strong and I need to see this retracement take root somehow to stay shorting.

Automated butchery

My first job was in a butchers shop - 5am starts to 5pm for £1 per hour - hard graft and very 'bloke-y' if you know what I mean! Good grounding for various life themes I think. So, when I saw this video on Mish Shedlock's blog, it struck at a few chords, past and present. I will admit to being a little technophobic, especially around the subject of who the recipients of the perceived benefits of efficiencies actually are, but this video has a certain 'coldness' to it, me thinks. Ponder on.

EURUSD: 8.02am

Muse at the BBC

For any Muse fans out there in my reader base: recent recordings at the BBC. Will only stream for a while before not being available so if you are reading this in time to come, the link may not work.

Photograph: Tree in Rock

Another curiosity to admire in nature. The Malvern Hills are renowned for their rock - damned hard stuff it is. My son and I were somewhat bemused to come across this clump of trees growing right out of the rock mound. Seeds in cracks and all that but no saplings here; these are all grown up and thriving - roots must have made a run for it at some point of course but interesting to see. Photograph: Tree in Rock.

Weekend Summary

Not quite the end to the week I was planning on but I think the bull run is on borrowed time.

This is how I am counting that last leg up. They may be more squiggles at the top, but looks okay to me. I had been long up to D5 earlier in the week but reckoned (guessed!) on a 'b' wave up, not this 5th. I am short at the top of the spike up there and hope to make up for lost time trying to short into that expanding diagonal on Thursday/Friday.

This was my second option from my bigger picture work (albeit not my favourite) and we made it in a lunge to the 1.3163 Gann line. I was going to bank my longs here earlier in the week but got lost in that messy consolidation and missed out. Hey ho. I am also counting 5 waves up from 1.2041 here, possibly for 'A' but or maybe '1'. In this latter count, the 4th wave (abc) is in fact 'B' and we are in 'C' up. Won't worry about that now. A slide down that parallel of the 'abc' should held clarify by the size of the retracement.

The My-Grid off the 1.6037 all time high, got another poke on Friday but is still not broken in my opinion yet. Nor the red trend line off the 2010 low. The monthly My-wave is still positive however, and after this week, I am even more cautious of any upside explosion. If we get a limited retracement next week into that My-Wave rather than a runaway train that turns it down, I would have to lean towards a 3rd up in the 'C' wave to come. I'd prefer to see a pull back to the blue perimeter wall to set up the strike upwards.

I do feel like a broken record, but these 'D' lines are all out of quilter and the push past D5 without backtesting D4, D6 or D7 leaves a trail of magnetic power unclaimed. There are higher order 'D' lines (D8 & D9) 200 pips higher (see lines in the sky report) but I don't think so yet. I have drawn in the proposed retracement route and would love to go long with everything down there.

This would also get T8 tagged which has been left out of the party since T7 made its drive for T11. A pull back would also tidy up the regression channel exit from the main drive down. Combined with the 'D' line work and the EW counts, I am holding out for this and although I hate to have wasted time over the last couple of days trading, hope to make up for it with a deep driving retracement starting into Christmas and over the New Year.

EURUSD: 2.16pm

Nothing ever straightforward with this currency! I 'll go with this count for now. Have added in the parallel's of the fib fan of blue 'a'. Now come on.

EURUSD: 1.28pm

Daily My-Wave shuffling closer......

If the count is right, watch out for a lighting strike soon

D'lines tell me that we will have a slight hold up at 1.3054 area but then down to 1.2920-1.2960 area for 'a' down in what I am counting a 'c' leg. See earlier post for bigger picture count.

Hello Italy

Just been looking at the viewing stats for the blog, given I am a couple of months in now. Other than the US & UK (thank you by the way) I can see Italy is coming in strong in recent times. Hello Italy. Given I am completely in love with our own sex cat (no kitten!) Nigella Lawson, I can only hope I catching some bella's eye over there. If it is Mr Burlesconi, no need to reply! Otherwise, do let me know what you think of the blog.

EURUSD: 12.53pm

Well, I posted a Youtube video of a rejected marriage proposal two days ago and he is still asking over and over. Some time soon, he going to get the message! Look out below, he is going to blow!

EURUSD: Big Picture Count

I recall yesterday having to say 'if...' alot but here we are again. Still more work to do to get things shifting downwards. Big picture Elliot Wave count that I feel is worth monitoring. Seems to fit the wave action, looks harmonic and I like it!! As I say, lots of 'ifs'.

EURUSD: 6.34am

With all the choppy climb, price action has offered as much opportunity down hill as it has up, so far. The 'D' lines however are set up for a strike downhill in my opinion. The distance travelled from the left hand side of D5 to the right is now about equal. D1 topping trough was completely ignored, although it may have slowed things down a touch. D2 is now in a troughing 'top'. As I said yesterday and last week, D2, D4 & D6 are the next sequential brothers of D3 & D5 and they don't sit up here. I am also looking at the confluence areas down there and wonder how we might get there so quickly. Still shorting the spikes up!

EURUSD 3.42pm

Looking very Ending diagonal to me now - fading this short.

Location perfect for a drop.