EURUSD

Diagonal of some sort looking like it may help the bullish case.

EURUSD

Annual pivot is pips away. Going to be a reaction, one way or the other.

EURUSD

Last possible entry did not take. Annual pivot is at 1.3471. This looks like an contracting triangle into that zone. I already got my count which I'll stick by unless the annual pivot folds without a fight. End of month, end of week. Still looking for up.

EURUSD - potential long entry

EURUSD

Slight tweak to count and now have to count this as a 'b' wave in an expanded flat, or not as the case may be. I am looking for a return to the 10day FLD above - a strong spike to the upside should confirm or a continued decline will scrap my thesis. Interestingly, that annual pivot at 1.3471 has still not been clipped - yet?

EURUSD

Possible count from the top - might be premature of course and I accept I am squeezing in my 'B' wave down thesis on this, but posting for a rock in the stream to stand on and see what is happening.

EURUSD

The red vertical line is my estimate for the next 10 day low, but can be off by a day or two, so with the weekend in between, one needs to be careful. The red 'straight' channel is the 10 day regression channel which is facing clearly uphill, being anchored for the moment by the strong basing achieved at the 1.3526 square root progression step. The red wiggly price envelope is the 10day volatility range and the blue straight channel is the 5day regression channel. Price is coming into the 10day low at the bottom of both the 5day regression channel and 10day price envelope and the bottom of the 10 day regression channel. The 4hr momentum study at the bottom of the screen is oversold. The green/blue bands under the price are the daily bollinger bands, and are pinching, suggesting a break out move is coming. Given my last post and the placement of the 10day FLD and given that this move down has not taken out the 1.3506 low and can be counted as a corrective 'b' wave, there is an awful lot in the bullish pot for me. If that low is taken out, then the trend is down and I'll not be fighting it. But I still prefer northbound but need to see the daily pivot captured at 1.3586 to get excited. We shall see.

EURUSD

So, the 1.3506 low remains in tact and price appears to be trying to mount a bounce from the 80 day FLD. Given the 10dayFLD has been left behind again at 1.3680, I am looking for a recovery and an opportunity to either hang on to my longs or re-short from there. I am still looking for this to have been a 'b' wave down but as discussed during the week, if it was a leading structure instead, the end result will be lower than 1.3506, but not an issue for me at the moment.

EURUSD

Round trip, from 80day FLD to 40Day FLD back to 80Day. Will it hold? This drop took my stops on break of 10day FLD so looking to re-enter around here for move back up again.

EURUSD

That is a direct hit on the 10day FLD, a weekend and a day early for the 10 day low. Even if the FLD gives way, it has a peak now back at 1.3680, so expect price to make for that. Been a bit too deep for my liking and has kept tracking down, but until that 1.3506 goes, I am looking to stay long in case this still turns out to be a 'b' wave down as per last count.

EURUSD: Bogeyman in the room part 2

Earlier in the week, I suggested the move from the 80day to the 40day FLD, whilst sequential, had left the 10day FLD lurking at the bottom of the chart. I could not say whether price would meander over or take a more direct route to reach back and it looks like it did a bit of both. Regardless, the price pull back to the 61.8% retracement of the move off 1.3506, has pretty much made it back to the 10day FLD, and if it now moves back up through the 20day and 5day FLDs immediately above, then the 40day FLD at 1.3745 maybe vulnerable. Ac such, the 1.3818 target at the top of the 80day price envelope looks in reach!

EURUSD

I have re-jigged the count that I am running with for now in the near term. I like the a=c target of 'B' at 1.3817 as it is also a square root progression step at the top of my 80day cycle price envelope. Now that would be a neat trip if this 'b' wave (hope) could gets some wings.

EURUSD

Price is back at the 61.8% retracement of the move up from 1.3506. Will it hold to confirm a 'b' wave or not?

EURUSD

This is the MMA wave for the weekly trend on the 15min chart. Note the impulsive wave up on the left and then compare that to the mess that followed. This sums up in one quick picture the conundrum, these spikes down are causing in the market. It is a fractured and without cohesion. When the resolution comes, it is likely to be significant and that December 2004 high at 1.3666 is likely the line in the sand for the uphill storyboard, if it has not already been decided.

EURUSD

This is getting a little frustrating, not breaking one way or another. In theory, the choppy chop chop is usually a signature of a correction and the obvious target is the rolling 20day sma, centre to the daily bollinger on standard settings (see green/blue bands and median). However, the contrary stance is that the grind down is in fact a leading diagonal, starting to look more like the pattern in play, due to the lack of a break up and the ongoing test of that 1.3600 line. But, the momentum study continues to diverge, suggesting this will get a spike up. The main issue for me is that there is less and less room in the study for this spike to occur without resetting itself, so my plan stays the same. Any spike up into the 1.3720+ zone will be banked and then the fall into next week's low watched for clarification on the ongoing pattern in play.

EURUSD - and in range bar world.....

Looks like a head and shoulders about to break up - still looking for that 1.3745 zone to close up for the month. Could have been done and dusted already if I had kept range trading but a spike up will make up for that.

EURUSD

Simple study to show how the 85.4% speedlines off the first 'A' waves in each larger degree move, creates accurate support and resistance lines. The blue boxes mark out how early (with hindsight) one can mark those lines in. 1.3666 is the Dec 2004 monthly high. Breakout likely to have some zip with combined efficacy, but I am out for 1.3720-1.3735 and waiting for next week's low in cycle to reassess entry.

EURUSD

Could be a downtrend but I'll give benefit of the doubt to the cyclic phasing that is not calling for a low till 3rd/4th and the possibility the contracting diagonal was in fact an expanding diagonal. As such, there should still be a punch out of the top given the positive divergence on the momentum studies.

EURUSD: 1.3666

Looks like a very key line in the sand to me: the December 2004 high

EURUSD

Glad I went to bed last night! Any enthusiasm for a major strike up is waning on my part with that next 10 day low due early next week. My plan for the day is to bank any 50+ pip move in towards 1.3745 today and be grateful, to end a great January, and take a few days off. The pathway remains the same, although whether this move down is a leading (A wave of expanded flat?) or contracting diagonal (wave 4 or 'b') I am undecided and thus keen to bank and sit on my hands. Catch up later.

EURUSD - getting used to being lucky

I don't mean to be too cocky, but my Lines in the Sky do seem to be picking up on what is happening under the skin of this market, or should I say, what I am allowed to see! Now, I have a conundrum: a move to 1.3745 would be great and I should bank in leiu of the next 10 day low due next week. But, as readers may recall from the Pitchfork analysis, a break of that high last week, might set off a larger spike to test that 1.3892 xmas high. Decisions, decisions! Firstly though, that 1.3672 square root line needs taming again.......

EURUSD - short term EW count

Not too shabby at all from yesterday's count, me thinks! I have however, changed the internal count for the B wave to an 'abc' instead of i,ii,ii. This could be a wave 4 instead of a B wave, so will be counting 5 waves up as best I can and out of longs probably prematurely as usual.

EURUSD

Got positive divergence going into the LTL of that diagonal, the median of the 10 day regression channel and the LTL of the 5 day regression channel. It is also the bottom of the 10 day price envelope, has hit the 20day FLD and 5day FLD as well as the LTL of the regression channel up from 1.3506. All in all, not a bad place to attemp to lose shorts here and ride a bump up to 1.3745.

EURUSD

This range trading has been quite rewarding but I think that needs to be put on hold now. I have edged long into the 5 day FLD here, looking for a move up to the 40day FLD again, before coming down in a larger retracement or something bigger perhaps. Anything near 1.3745 with a trend line break is going to see me reducing longs or getting out completely. See how the 4hr (blue) 8hr (red) and daily (green/blue) bollys are consolidating on the first chart. Something big is coming! Catch up later.

EURUSD

 These Pitchforks seem to be telling the story very well. Price is right at the border of the fork coming off the 1.3892 high. If it breaks, then the larger diagonal pattern is likely on. Until then, I am looking for further downside.

 My next 80day low is the end of February. If this cyclic phasing holds, then this move up is likely to be a 'b' wave overall, and I am looking for a move down to confirm. If this is a trend change instead, I am still looking for a retracement down in due course.

 The move up into 'e' was picture perfect. Will the move down to 'f' '/10 day low follow suit and how will that compare to the last move up?

I have the 3rd/4th February as the next low. Is the diagonal a leading formation or a wave 4/b or is it a diagonal at all? Either way, price action is burning up time going nowhere at the moment.

The key for me is the 10 day FLD - how is price going to get there? If it goes up, it must come down at some point to reach it. To get to the 10 day, price is likely to have to pass through the 20 and 5 day flds.

EURUSD

Well, it is certainly looking like a 4th wave going up rather than a 'b' wave coming down. However, this should push prices up into that 1.3745-1.3818 zone and then the deeper retracement into the 10day low due 3/4th Feb. The red regression channel here is the 10 day hi/lo and the light blue is the 5 day. I'll stay flat to the top now and release the longs for profit and then ride the shorts back down for breakeven or profit if I am in luck!

EURUSD

That's me flat again. Seemed to have banked quite a lot of pips today without price really going anywhere. I just can not sit here anymore today waiting for that 50 pip move to occur. Hopefully, it will have happened by the time I boot up in the morning to the short side, so I can bank them and ride it up. The likelihood of the market waiting for me to arrive at the computer however is slim. Such is the market!

EURUSD short term EW count

This is how I am counting this move at the moment. I am working back from the fact that slow, turgid moves are usually 'b' waves inside retracements. I have an irregular flat in the count which seems to be the order of the day with this pair with a 61.8% retracement target based on an earlier topped 'A' rather than the top. Might be a little deep because I got strong support at 1.3620 being the Nov 2013 monthly high for one, but others too.

EURUSD

Few more pips for the bank there and longs banked leaving shorts naked again. Will cover above daily pivot but got to give this neckline a chance to hold given lack of impulsive move uphill and as the weekly trend band is still cleanly downhill.

EURUSD

I have banked some shorts there under Friday's low and covered the rest. Price action is not committed to this downturn at the moment and perhaps confirms that this is a shallow retracement (likely a wave 4). The hourly momentum study is looking leggy and would only support further acceleration if this is a trend change. If it continues to dribble down, I'll look for a place to lose the shorts and move long, but for now, I am thinking another spike up in a 5th wave to the 1.3745 to 1.3818 zone would be a healthier place for me to be short than holding out for more here.

EURUSD

From that failure to reach the square root progression step 1.3745 on Friday, I had been looking for a move to 1.3600, but price kept bouncing off 1.3672. Well, we are back there again after what looks like an 'a & b' of a correction, or part of one. A break here should see a useful attempt on 1.3600, although I think it will get caught up around 1.3620 because of those FLDs in the last post and the 5 day regression channel here. Depending on how the momentum cluster looks down there, I'll be looking to reverse long again.

EURUSD: there is a bogeyman in the room!

Price action on Friday was wonderful for the account balance, but the red 10day FLD in the lower right of the chart is a bit of an issue for the bulls, I think. Price zipped from the 80day FLD to the 40day, but to move on, it needs to back test the 5, 10 & 20 day FLDs to ensure that the rejection of the 80day was not just a retracement (which I think it was of course).  So, either price is going to meander over to the right in a shallow complex correction, or it is going to work its way down in a more direct route. Either way, looking for significant upside in the short term is not on my radar.

The Pitchfork analysis seems to suggest that a failure to break higher here, may likely result in a 'b' wave diagonal pattern. The downward Pitchforks use the 1.3809 and subsequent Christmas spike 1.3892 to provide a competing picture. I think the market is still trying to decide the significance of the spike ('b' wave high or top?), with the purple pitchfork being rejected at present. Either way, unless Friday's high is taken out decisively, price action has a well defined channel to work to the downside, with break points lower down. Anything above 1.3524 is likely to keep the bullish options open, but again for now, I am more concerned with how we move back down there.

EURUSD

Looks like we have been in a 'b' wave of a retracement. Have squared my longs so all flat going into weekend. Looking for 'c' down before run up again. Up or down, as long as it moves somewhere!!

EURUSD

I have edged ahead net long for now. The momentum study has almost cycled on a hourly basis and that 1.3672 square root progression step has held firm, well above the daily pivot and just under yesterday's highs. With that spike down held up, I have to assume that some shorts got banked there on the way down and longs at the high (mine included!). However, next time around, the shorts are going to be a bit more hesitant and the longs might hold on a little longer. All seems to add up to a diagonal but perhaps an expanding one to chew through the weaker hands up top on both sides. Catching that ride up yesterday and the additional spike today has made this a very good week for me and it is likely I go into the weekend as I am now, slightly long but generally needing to lose the longs up top somewhere and let the shorts loose again. If I do not write again, have a great weekend. No report this weekend as have lecture work to prepare for the new semester.

EURUSD

That was a nice drop from the high but still comfortably above the daily pivot with the hourly momentum study looking droopy already. Have covered shorts again and looking for some sort of diagonal pattern to build to the upside, to lose longs again. If price does drop, will look for a trend line break near one of those lower order FLDs to drop the shorts.

EURUSD

Close enough to target area for me. Attempting longs off and shorts exposed. If it sticks above 1.3745, I'll re-cover. That 5, 10 & 20day FLDs look a long way off from here. Expecting retrace as a minimum.

EURUSD

Tightly coiled on the 1 hour bolly band now. If the weekly and monthly trends hold here inside the bullish regression channels, we should see the move to 1.3745. If there is a contracting diagonal into that zone, I'll be looking to bank my longs and go short again. We shall see what the pattern looks like when price gets there.

EURUSD

Banked a 1/3rd of shorts on that pull back there to the 1.3672 square root progression step, and covered the rest to go flat and wait for another move up to test this morning's high or the next step at 1.3745. The momentum study only looks half done on the hourly chart but this drag down has not been impulsive thus far and want to be flat into any diagonal structure top, hopefully with long profits to bank.

Note the purple 5 day FLD zipping up the screen - a diagonal squeezed between the 40day FLD and this might be the eventual pattern. With that 10 day down at the bottom of the chart, a break of the 5day, should make a beeline for that and the 20 day  fld, wherever they are at the time of the break.

EURUSD: the boomerang rocketship?

http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2013/04/30/180057507/the-boomerang-rocket-ship-shoot-it-up-back-it-comes

Now if price got held up at the 80FLD, because it needed to seek out its half brother, the 40FLD, is this enough of a visit to get permission to pass on through the 80FLD, next time down? Regardless of the eventual answer, to get to the 40FLD, price has to pass through the 10 & 20FLDs, which will need retesting at some point. The 5FLD was properly tested yesterday, so not too concerned at that for now. The question is though, will the rocket gently re-land, or come crashing down??