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I have closed out at just before yesterday's low - enough for me this week. Catch up Monday.

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The opening price of 9490 was rejected again, providing another shorting opportunity. The prior low was taken out and now I have yesterday's low at 9415 as an initial target and then the 9386, back the 38.2% back from 9042. If that is passed, then bottom of my next circle is 9340. Am already at breakeven with stops, so probably let this run to the close.

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As suspected, shorts looking vulnerable without a push down, so have banked. On the hourly chart, yesterday's drop managed to get back above the 23.8% retracement of the move up from 9042 and is testing again today, having rejected at the 50% of yesterday's drop at 9507. This could be a lesser degree 'b' wave back, with the 76.4% above at 9556 being the target. I am looking long above the opening price of 9490, which would be in line with the 4hr trend as well, but expecting traction at that 76.4% target. Any falls below 9459 would probably be targeting 9386, being the 38.2% of the move up from 9042.

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Still a bit of a mixed picture between the weekly and daily clouds but on the 4hr, the bullish channel off the 8902 low is still up and price is above its ichimoku cloud. The 76.4% retracement from the June high sits at 9777 and given the price action so far, rejecting off the daily 200sma and the 61.8% but inside the 4hr channel, I am leaning towards more upside after this correction concludes to the downside. If that be the case, the daily cloud is vulnerable to being leaped, given the weekly support. For now, the hourly trend band is down and price is in the cloud, having made it back to where I got off yesterday. Whilst price is under the 9490 opening line for the day, I'll be looking for shorts again, but will not be hanging on to them for too long, given the above summary.

#Dax $Dax Dax

Bit of a slow turn overnight, but a useful rejection of the resistance levels discussed yesterday. My hourly stochs are looking heavy here, so out of shorts and waiting for the upside response to decide whether to short again or not. The hourly bollys are trending downhill and with the price under the daily open of 9561 and the trend band (red & white) looking to turn, no reason to look for longs for now, although it could be bouncy with the 1hr to 8hr (not shown) Ichimoku clouds all bullish. My eyes are on that orange hourly 200sma at 9300 or wherever it gets to by the time price reaches down to it, as my initial short target overall.

#Dax $Dax Dax

Price has opened this morning at 9582; this sits at the 127% extension of the 'a-b' up from the low, just shy of the 61.8% retracement of the high, at the 200sma for the daily and 4hour charts. Throw in the overbought stochs, the negative divergence on the 4hr & 1hr rsi's and I am still looking for a pull back. The hourly 200sma sits below it's ichimoku cloud at the 50% retracement target of 9247, which would also have price nested in the 4hr cloud. Enough of a goal for now, although I am mindful of the daily overhead cover there.

Dax - approaching 127% extension

I picked up this morning's long off the pull back but now looking to position short into the 127% extension. The daily chart is still showing a bearish wave and this drive up from the low is looking overbought and vulnerable to a reset. Assuming the move up is 'a' of the retracement, 'b' back to approx. 9100 would be a realistic goal. There is negative divergence on the hourly stocks and rsi, so as I say, looking for shorts, whilst the daily 20sma is red, albeit the hourly wave is still bullish.

DAX - price at the 20day SMA

Following on from my last post, price is now in the vicinity I was looking for to go short again. Price is at the 20day SMA, which is for now still bearish, with negative divergence appearing on the stochs and RSi studies and 100% of the prior 'a-b' met. However, the hourly MyWave is still clearly bullish, so no rush whilst waiting for that to start collapsing (or not as the case may be) and 127% maybe the target above or higher. It is a bank holiday here in the UK, so I am not doing anything today, but will reassess tomorrow looking for an intraday set up.

DAX Weekend Review

Daily Chart:

The Daily MyWave is bearish and as price reached down to the 9126 resistance line on Friday, it began to back off into the close. No positive divergence in the RSi at this stage, so anticipate lower prices in due course, although price is someway from the pink DMA, the green MyWave and the short term red wave, so a pull back to the blue dotted line looks a reasonable quest for any interim retracements, initially nearer 9367.

4hr Chart:

There was a hint of divergence on the 4hr RSi, Friday, but with only 3 waves down into that low on the momentum study, price seems to be in a wave 3 with a likely waves 4 & 5 to come. Price action seems stretched on the 4hr too and the same 9367 or maybe 9488 look good targets for re-shorting, if a retracement occurs. The DMA is a way off to the right at the moment, so something to burn up time next week would fit with the wave 4 retracement theme; maybe a triangle?


60min Chart:

The hourly chart was definitely showing positive divergence Friday, so a wave 3 was likely drawing to a close. The weekly 50% retracement zone sits up the 9488 area but again the DMA is way off to the right, so anticipate side wards action of some sort to burn up time. Looking to short higher up is how I am looking at the charts for now.

EURUSD Weekend Review

Daily Chart:

Quite clearly, the green daily MyWave is still bearish, and although a swing up seems to have begun on Friday, the RSi study is not showing any divergence into that low, usually found in terminal 5th waves. As such, I'll expect to play both sides of a corrective wave, shorting into strength and following the lower highs up on the 4hr chart. The momentum study in the first sub-chart suggests there is some time to go to relieve the oversold status and somewhere close to the pink Displaced MA would be a suitable target for a continuation downhill. I expect the 1.34518 to be the first area of resistance and then into MyWave above. Anything that penetrates the MyWave and the DMA would suggest something more bullish is on the cards.

4hr Chart:

The 4hr MyWave is also bearish for now and I anticipate a corrective swing continually reaching back into the MyWave to pick up lower highs and cashing out on higher highs. The 4hr DMA sits at that 1.34518 zone, so expect price to reach up to or over it and then either fall under it or over it, but fall nevertheless in response to it. This is likely to be a 'b' wave affair and could be steep to retest the low, even take it out if an expanded flat occurs. For now 1.33792 looks a good target to bank shorts and move long again, but all short term trades if this move up does prove corrective. When the momentum study reaches the green target zone in the sub-chart, I am looking for 3 waves to have occurred on the 4hr chart for a chance of the correction being over, but not a concern for now. Next week looks bullish albeit into a bearish wave.

60min Chart:

The regression channel from the 1.3649 high has been broken to the upside and price is also now above the weekly 50% retracement zone. The momentum study and RSi suggest we are in wave 4 of the 'c' leg in possibly 'A' up and I expect price to make a new high on Friday's action and then move either downhill or sidewards to test the hourly DMA. I think a test of the regression channel perimeter at about 1.3390 looks possible but depends on how long the new high takes, as this will move price action to the right and make the weekly 50% band more likely nearer 1.3410. I'd like to see 3 waves down on the hourly momentum to lose my shorts, so a pop and drop Monday/Tuesday would be perfect. If this wave up is to be corrective, there should be plenty of choppy price action, especially in the pull backs as they will be corrections within a correction.

So in summary, the bigger picture still holds bearish but a move up on the 4hr chart is likely playable in both directions as a retracement. The absence of positive divergence on any of these 3 timeframes suggests there will be more downside in due course, so anticipate lower highs to be tested over and over as the market find its feet into any move uphill. Anything different from this wave personality and I'll have to rethink next week's trading strategy.