Dax review 18/10/2015

Last weekend's notes cover all points. 50% retracement line of last year's low to this year's high is at 10390 with the yearly mid pivot at 10752 (Pivot was 9953 backtested last week and R1 is 11552). If back test holds then those are my next two target points above.

Dax Review 3/10/2015

This monthly chart shows the wave counts assumed to be in play. Whether this is wave 4 done, concluding, or if something more complicated pushing out to the right over the next few months (triangle) is to come, is perhaps the bigger picture question. Certainly the SMi setting being used, suggests we have only seen a single wave down thus far, comprised of an 'abc' through the weekly lens (see chart 3).

The second monthly chart here focuses on the RSi study, which I posted during the week and clearly warns of a test of this down draft at the very least. Ignore the rest of the chart, which is meant for lower time frames. The previous RSi cycles at this degree, set off higher highs; whether this one will remains to be seen, but downside seems limited without a reset of some sort.


In this weekly chart, the annual pivots and their mid lines are in show. Breaching last year's low of 8354 will require price to push past the 78.6% retracement of the move out of that low and with the annual pivot at 9953, the current wave count assumed down from the top, the monthly RSi study in the last chart, and the weekly SMi study in this, chasing the downside may be painful for shorters who hang around too long. With three weekly candles attacking and holding above the 78.6% retracement at 9234 and the annual mid pivot of 9525, these aforementioned studies provide a platform for a test of the annual pivot at 9953, and then the higher 10752 and 11552 pivots initially.

The daily wave formation is of course bearish still, but those positive divergences in the RSi have me watching the lower order waves.

The two hour wave held firm on Friday with an interesting bounce out of daily S1 after the US announcements. Further ferreting of lower prices may still test this bullish wave, either compounding the positive divergences, or collapsing the wave. For now, looking to buy drops whilst the formation holds and keep an eye on the impact on the daily wave. Expect volatility to continue either way.