EURUSD

Price has now made it to the lower perimeter of the red Raff Regression channel from the 1.2041 low to the 1.4000 high - looking at that momentum study, it still seems to me that a surprise move up that is stronger than the USD bullish case expects, might be worth bearing in mind....at least until we see 3 waves back anyhow and the momentum study softens from here. A subsequent break to the downside of that LTL would be very shortable from somewhere higher.

EURUSD - Pitchfork and momentum analysis

The blue pitchfork is going to get tested to the upside, soon enough, with momentum in oversold. I am looking at the previous lows in price and the momentum lows, and notwithstanding the deafening bearish tones on the EURUSD, I can not see any collapse on this chart yet, just another higher low being formed. However, the pink pitchfork does look broken thus far, so the position of price when this momentum study resets, could be a great short. I think the only price action, the market is not expecting, is something lazer fast to the upside. Now that would be interesting to see how the 'counts' adjust...again!

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

I have my stops under the 1.3501 low but matters are certainly looking precarious for the EURUSD at the moment. The weekly chart shows price nestling into the ichimoku cloud and the 50% median line of the rolling yearly price channel, whilst the daily has it rejected the cloud above and is sat on the 3month rolling low. Price is sat right on a particularly interesting trend line at present......

 

There is a likely move to the 1.3610 area on the 4hr chart, even if the bearish scenario prevails, but a breach there would have the hourly's up too and a possible bullish buy at the trend line storyboard in play. The 4hr cloud is thin there, and the monthly FLD is offering a pass to higher ground, towards the rolling monthly high. We shall see.

 

#GBPJPY $GBPJPY #Trading

4hr trend line is still in bearish formation, with the daily looking very toppy. A pull back to the 50% retracement zone on the 4hr has me short here with the 50% retracement area as initial target on the daily - a lot of pips, as long as the top holds!!

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

Shorts off EURUSD to leave longs naked here - stops under 1.3572. The 4hr wave has just gone bullish and the daily chart has a possible diagonal building, or at least a regression upper perimeter worth gunning for. Initial target is the zone under the 1.3700 high, as long as this low holds.

#NZDJPY

4hr now in line with daily chart. Attempting short with stop above high (90).

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

4hr wave looks to be giving up to the downside here and falling in line with the daily wave - 100% -127% extension of the drop from 1.3700 takes us down to retest the 1.3501 low, one side or the other, so covered longs and reassess down there, if it arrives.

Possible trades for the week ahead

These are the daily & 4hrly charts that are in alignment for the week ahead as matters stood at the close on Friday. I have put target areas (bright green dashed) on the 4hr charts to alert me when price gets to it, so I can monitor the intraday wave for a possible entry in the direction of the daily/4hr waves:

FTSE100

 GOLD

 ESPN35

 GBPJPY

 GERM30

USDJPY

CHFJPY

 

EURJPY

FRAN40

 

And finally, although the NZDJPY is not in alignment at present, the possible turn here could be a big turn on the daily. Will take a shot if the intraday wave turns down.

 

#DowIndustrials $DowIndustrials #Trading

Got a push down, but I have banked shorts and will leave this for weekend. Not catching fire prior to 2.30pm GMT start line and rather avoid a move up.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

Still showing higher lows from 1.3574, notwithstanding bearish hour, 4hr & daily trends. With that daily wave sitting up at last week's high of 1.3700, I am holding out for a move higher. Nothing to lose bar my stops and they have been there since this week's low, so got used to that. The weekly regression channel continues to leak downhill but is still bullish overall. Just can not help 'feeling' there is something left in the tank for the bulls and until that stop is taken, I'll keep on hoping!

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #Trading

Got back to the 61.8% - looking for bounce in 'c' now to 103.57-103.96. If can do that tonight, I'll cover the longs again and rest easy into weekend on Oil, having banked my shorts today. Cover for the longs sits at 101.73, just in case.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

I have moved my stop up a little below last night's low. Price action doing all it can to keep the bulls interested (just) but needs to get above that 4 hour wave spine (thick line) and into the 4hr bollys at 1.3644 to keep it that way. The monthly regression channel is still pointing up but started levelling off a little with that decline yesterday (see green squares for recent movement of median line). The 60 minute wave is under pressure, but is for now turned down, so plenty to do to get this moving up hill, but for me, that would be the contrarian play and take the most stops, other than below 1.3501 of course!

#DowIndustrials $DowIndustrials #Trading

Do we have an expanding diagonal occurring in the Dow? Next target would be 16717 to hit the support line at the lower perimeter. Stops above 17000.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #Trading

Covering the Crude longs yesterday evening looks to have caught most of the 'a' wave up. Hoping for a move nearer the low in 'b', with the next support shelf down at 102.22 and a really lovely 101.59 below that, being the preferred pull back of course, to release my shorts and drive up in a 'c' leg. Catch up later.

Eurusd $eurusd #Trading #elliott wave

I wrote yesterday, that there was a leading diagonal flavour about the overlapping move up, but I discarded it because of the next spikey legs up and down. But, having stared at it, and watched price sitting above the 1.3574 low, I wonder if we have an irregular flat as a 'b' wave. Thought I'd post it - holding long until that low gives, or somewhere higher if the MACD provides some thrust.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #Trading

Nice bounce out this morning's low, as discussed. The hourly trend is still in a bearish formation however, so covered longs there, and will see how matters look when the MACD is oversold.

#DowIndustrials $DowIndustrials #Trading

Well, I think that worked from last night's post. Looking for a pull back now to approx. 16925 zone to short again, being 61.8% retracement of today's move.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

EURUSD has made it back 50% from the 1.3574 low to yesterday's high. Shorts off and hoping longs pick up steam before that low cracks. The weekly and monthly regression channels are now aligned up hill and the 60min wave has held bullish so far. All in place for an uphill thrust, if it is coming, towards the daily wave at 1.3700 initially. This should also move the 4hr hour wave bullish in due course.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #Trading

With this count, we should be in for a bounce very soon!

#DowIndustrials $DowIndustrials #Trading

Price appears have made an 'abc' retracement just shy of equal legs but has made it to the 61.8% fibo of yesterday's drop. Taking a short here, and will move to BE/free trade on first stab down. Worth a go with the hourly trend still bearish here.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #Trading

Further to this morning's post, the support line at 102.03 may be the target and a good place to try for that retracement back up again. The rsi & momentum study have been stretched for a while now, so hoping for a 50-61.8% at least.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

Well not a LD then but outcome has been the same with another opportunity to bank shorts and recover higher up. Now flat until a 'b' wave down corrects the whole move up from 1.3574. catch up tomorrow.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

Price made it into the area where the monthly median line resides (gold) and I make that 5 waves up. As it is overlapping, it maybe a leading diagonal, although drawing perimeter lines does not make a pretty picture at all - almost a straight channel. The 50-61.8% retrace from 1.3574 comes in at 1.3608-1.3600, so just above today's low. If price could map out a neat zig zag, I would be most appreciative, but I so rarely get want I want, I'll not be banking on that. Anyhow, looking for longs again nearer today's low.

#Crude Oil $Crude Oil #Trading

Oil hitting the 50% retracement zone from the 97.34 low from March - looking for reversal opportunity, having banked shorts at 102.70.

#Eurusd $eurusd #Trading

Price has retraced 50% of the move up and could be all that is needed for a push higher. Note the orange channel above, that held the initial thrust up: this is the weekly regression channel. It is still in the same position, with little time decay, so any immediate thrust is likely to get caught in treacle - therefore the monthly median above at 1.3650 might be enough to take a rest again, if it can make it past this morning's high.