EURJPY Weekend Summary

Weekly Chart (1)

My data goes back to 1993 and the last high to low wave is marked out with white circles. Therefore, the vertical origins of my mirror or reflective squares are a high of 169.957 and a low of 88.96; the time taken from high to low, creates the length of my square.  As in my EURUSD work, notice how the approximation of a 10year Hull Moving Average follows the price action and 45 degree line relatively accurately.

 Weekly Chart (2)

This second weekly chart houses the first mirror or reflection of that high to low square in chart 1. I have then marked out the Harmonic Octaves of that square and the 45 degree angles of both the main square and the ‘50%’ squares within. It is assumed that the time and price relationships that created that first square will provide pathways for price action until such time as a new ‘high/low relationship’ exists, and even then will create echoes. The ending diagonal that preceded this run up, tested, but did not break the low of 88.96. Price is now at the 4^th Harmonic Octave and 50% price retracement  of the original square. The recent meandering in this area can be classed as the first attempt at the 50% zone and is unlikely to crack it this time around.  However, price has managed to break the 45 degree line running down from the high at 169.957, but is under the 45degree line running up from the low. As such, I am classing this price action as placed in the bullish zone within a bearish triangle. With the 10 year Hull MA sitting at the gold 50% 45 degree line below and the EW count looking for a ‘c’ of the 4^th (or a ‘c of A’ of the 4^th), combined with the momentum cluster positioning at present, I am looking for a move down towards the red 45degree line that it broke at the ‘iv of 3’. Of particular interest is the conjunction of the 2x45 degree lines at the 2^nd Harmonic Octave at 109.3119. Albeit a deep wave 4, this still sits above the ‘wave 1’ high as currently counted.

Daily Chart (1)

This chart shows the original Gann square for the 2012 high and low from 111.421 to 94.103. I have commenced the 100 day Cyclic Phasing from that low. Note how the 200 day Hull MA provides a useful proxy for the 45 degree lines created by the Gann squares.

Daily Chart (2)

The daily chart houses the reflections of the 2012 high/low Gann Square (red verticals and horizontals). I have marked out the Harmonic Octaves in blue and overlaid the 'all time' high low Gann square Harmonic Octaves in gold. We are due a 100 day cycle low around the 21nd August, which is similar in timeframe to the EURUSD. However, unlike the EURUSD, the 200d Hull looks like it is on its last legs before turning down and the 25day FLD (pink) has been ‘cut’ decisively, along with the 129.4042 Harmonic Octave from the ‘all time’ high low square (the 4^th HO and 50% retracement line). Price has also made it back into the reflective square of last year’s high/low, with last year’s high sat at the bottom of this next square down, at 111.421. This is sitting above that next ‘all-time’ square Harmonic Octave at 109.3119, as highlighted in the weekly chart. If the 129.4042 line holds, then this next Gann square down is likely to contain price action with the next ‘all time’ HO at 119.2749, just below the 50% line and 4^th HO of the annual Gann Square reflection. That is my near term target if the bearish action persists.  The gold dots mark out a possible channel pathway to follow, although note how price is sat right on top of the 45degree line of the new square down. An immediate puncture here on Sunday/ Monday would likely take out last month’s low and push hard to the downside to meet the rising gold 45 degree line where the first dot is placed.

 90minute Chart

The 90minute chart houses the monthly reflections of the July 'high/'low Gann square (red vertical and horizontal) and as of Friday was sat above last month’s low of 127.993 and at the 25day Bolly lower perimeter.  The momentum cluster is confirming the move downhill,  but is already looking tad leggy to be chasing this early Monday.  With the 25 day Hull MA red and price under this and its FLD from the last chart, the ‘all-time’ HO at 129.4042 and ‘annual’ HO at 128.7727, should be enough to limit any correction. If so, then selling into strength in that zone would be my preference, but when price holds below the Daily Pivot and a monthly HO (blue dashed). A break of that July low at 127.993, however, may leave tidy entries well behind.  

EURUSD: Weekend Summary

Well, so far so good: the 45degree 'bull/bear' divide of the 'all-time high/low' mirror Gann square (red vertical and horizontals), held to the downside last week and even started to soften on Friday. We have an 'abc' formation in the weekly momentum study and a red 10year Hull to work with on the bear case, but a drop through the 1.3103 Harmonic Octave is probably the proof of the pudding, so to speak. The whole formation from blue '1' upwards appears to be a fractal of green '1' up, so any break uphill would change the feel of the count and I'd look again at the thesis.

The daily chart houses the reflections of the 2012 high/low Gann Square (red verticals and horizontals). I have marked out the Harmonic Octaves in blue and overlaid the 'all time' high low Gann square Harmonic Octaves in gold. We are due a 100 day low around the 22nd August and if Friday's softening in prices have ushered in the turn, then first stop looks like the 1.3125-1.3100 zone. This is the confluence of the 6th HO in the annual high/low Gann square and the 5th HO in the all-time high/low square. Given price is right up in the rafters of the annual square at present, having previously failed to hold the break in February, I am anticipating a sharp rejection of the 45degree line from the first chart and a sharp move down. However, both the 200day Hull and the 25day FLD need to break in confirmation and thus far have not. Failure to hold above that confluence and I'll be looking for the bottom of the annual square at 1.20411, where the 'all time' high low square's 4th HO sits - that being the 50% marker at 1.21327.  The gold dots show a possible pathway to monitor.

The 90minute chart houses the monthly reflections of the July 'high/'low Gann square (red vertical and horizontal) and as of Friday was sat on or inside the high - just! The momentum cluster is confirming the move downhill, but a break of the annual' square's 7th HO at 1.33059 is needed to get this ball rolling into the 1.3125-1.3100 zone as previously mentioned. If the 25 day Hull can turn red and holds on Monday, whilst taking out the 50% 45 degree angle (gold) and the 1.33059 line, then we may see matters impulse. The 25day bollys look like they are building a pinch, so maybe some congestion in the 1.3125 zone to set things up, either way. Given the summer doldrums, this may pan out to be all of next week's storyboard. Alternatively, a break and hold of last month's high at 1.3343 and maybe we go to retest last year's high at 1.34853.

EURUSD

 Following on from the last post, showing price engaging with the underside of the 45degree line separating bull from bear expectations, I have changed the EW count to something a bit more aggressive, in honour of the Gann square placement. Do look at the last post on this 'all time high/low' mirror square.

 We still need some follow through to the downside as the daily chart shows the 200day Hull and 25day FLD in a bullish formation. However, the 100 day low is due, as seen by the dashed line and circle below, so I am ever hopeful of a decline in due course, at whatever degree. The Gann squares on this chart are reflections of the 2012/2013 high low, with price re-looking at last year's high of course, having failed in February to make the break stick. An initial look at last year's low would be a good start in my opinion!

 The 25day cycle is also bullish at the moment with price having taken out last month's high, but the 25day low is due soon too (blue dashed bottom right), which ties up with the 100 day low in the above chart. Given the momentum cluster in both the daily and this chart, I think that 45 degree line in the first may have anti burglar paint on the underside!

So, with price already pushing the weekly bollinger top, providing plenty of room to the downside for a slide downhill, I am looking to stay short and await some impulsive moves to back up the thesis.

EURUSD

I  have a few projects on the go at the moment and have been a bit lax with posting here. However, I have been working in the background! The EURUSD is at a very interesting juncture at present and I have been watching the weekly chart of late and how price has been reacting around the 45 degree Gann line of mirror square of the 'all time high to low price square'.

This first chart is the 'all time high low' Gann Square. I have overlaid a 10 year Hull MA to approximate the median price action as it moves up and down the 45 degree lines. Quite clean up until that 1.6037 top.

This second chart shows the same time/price square as the first chart but recommencing at the all time high. In Don Hall's work on 'Pyrapoint', the top triangle above the 45 degree line contains the bullish price action. Given price has been coming off the all time high, it is evident that the EURUSD has been somewhat less than enthusiastic about assuming these bullish expectations. Price and time has now made it to the underside of the 45 degree line representing that divide between bullish and bearish expectations. The 10 year Hull MA has not been as absolute as the prior chart, but it is red and price is under the 45 degree line. I have drawn these charts in analog, not log, because the Square action looks better, which may or may not be the right course of action going forward. So, will price capitulate here into the 'square' anniversary marked by way of the white circle, or attempt a reprieve above the 45 degree line?

This last chart shows the daily bars with a smaller Gann square representing 2012's high and low journey. Price took out last year's high, back in February but then retreated back into last year's range, albeit in the top half of that range. For now, the 200 day Hull MA is bullish but flat and with the momentum nest looking overbought in ranging conditions, I am looking for a rejection of last year's high again, along with the failure of the 45 degree line in the second chart. An initial target would be last year's low for me and the reaction to that low, helping to determine the next leg of the journey. As I said at the beginning, interesting times.

USDJPY

Getting very tight for room down here!!

USDJPY

Different diagonal I think. Price moved down to the bottom of the price envelope and volatility range but underlying corrective nature of the 25day MyWave and the apparent transversing of the 50D fld, has me long lower and ever hopeful of a spike up or at least more diagonal backfilling to the upside.

USDJPY

Contracting diagonal appears out of the mele, now on the triangle border. Looking for this to break up but still await proof.

USDJPY

So, if this is an 'e' leg in a triangle, the break of the ending diagonal and price above the FLD & Daily Pivot, should see a thrust up get going. That should be a 5th wave after a triangle (or 'c' depending on how it is counted) but regardless, up. I think the 102.44 Pyrapoint line looks a reasonable target. We seem to only be half way through the 25 day cycle here, so some time to build a tower I think.

Dow

Shorts closed on this for a bit. Could waterfall as per move to 25 day low but I prefer te USDJPY technical's to this at the moment.

USDJPY

Low risk entry for a long here: 3 charts that outline the opportunity. Just ask if you want any more information.

Dow

Little bit more work for price to do but it is giving the impression of beginning its move into the 25 day low ( being the first 25day cycle in the last and 4th 100day cycle in the last and 3rd 80 week cycle in the 54month cycle, due to bottom in November). So, I am quite interested in the extent of this drop and the 50 day cycle reaction. So far, it is looking quite punchy and may it continue for a bit. Three charts to bring us up to date. Do ask if you'd like any further explanation.

DOW

Can someone just put a pin in this balloon? MFI dropping away on 240min but no price reaction yet or confirmation on daily. I keep staring at it but up she grinds.

Dow

Not a lot of need to write too much at the moment I Think. On the hourly chart, it does seem that we are at the end of a 5th wave extension, being a contracting diagonal in the 5th wave of an expanding diagonal. Very messy but there you go. Whether or not this turns out to be a 5th leg up at a larger degree or a 'b' leg is another matter, but still looking for a shift downhill to clarify matters into the 25 day low.

Dow

Back at that trend line again and it looks like it became the lower perimeter of an expanding diagonal rather than a contracting. Shorter term cycles look tired getting back down to this line but the 4hr upwards haven't blinked to the downside yet and as I mentioned all last week, the 25 day low is due and it is usually worth 400+ pips against the main trend, which for now is up. What I am looking for is evidence that this 1st 25day cycle in the 4th and last 100day of the 3rd and last 80week cycle, is the beginning of the roll down to the 54month cycle low due from October onwards. That is not to say that the whole of the next 54 month cycle keep that downward pressure on but this current cycle needs to complete first with a respective low. As such, 400 pips is just a starter for ten unless there is more upside first. For me,15400 is a good initial target as per then 3.125day volatility range.

Dow

Looks like it is a diagonal in 'c' of 'b' but bigger (as it usually is!) than I was counting. Whether it breaks down tonight or not, I do not know but 15400 would be the bottom of the 4hr bolly channel and a worthy end to the week but would mean breaking the new created trend line. We shall see.

Dow

Very choppy for a bit but looks like an ending diagonal in the 'b' wave after last night's 'a' wave drop. Price action is under the old high of 15540, so trying to short this, as ever, trying to catch that 25day low ride down.

EURJPY

The 60min MFI study is not responding to this spike up in EURJPY at all. I have banked longs and get the feeling the oversold momentum study in the 240min may be looking for shorts up here. Price is at the daily Bolly's so looks right. I am focusing on the Dow again though instead.

EURJPY

Had to re-enter at the daily pivot but outcome looking good now. Aiming for 162% extension of first A-B at 132.21 or the 60min bolly if holds price.

EURJPY

Taken a long with 10 pip stop, looking for continuation of trend after retrace and just breaking out of pink FLD on 10 min chart. Looking for an ending diagonal to build into a top.

EURUSD

Bounced right up to my stop. Have to wait for price to reach the bolly bands to look again. Might get a better price to short or missed my opportunity to go long. Should have banked in hindight.

EURUSD

My shorts are looking very good this morning and somewhat quicker to bloom than yesterday's trip up. I have been looking at the big strike up last week (unfortunately when visiting hospital interns!) and the question is of course, is that the whole 'abc' up for 'b'? If so, this is not lesser degree 'b' down but bigger 'c' of bigger 'b'. The chart clarifies my bigger picture count. Needless to say, I am at breakeven with my stops after the strike and look forward to the 61.8% marker as discussed in the earlier post - will it cut right through it or not??? Timing wise, the 22nd August is the 100 day low target to end the 2nd 80week cycle in my Phasing Analysis (see previous posts and summary chart below). That should be a great place to build longer term longs but for now, I am keeping my eye on this move for further evidence.

EURUSD - different EW count

Just looking at the pink 1hr momentum study in the sub-chart, matters looked overbought as discussed earlier. However, instead of a 'b' wave triangle, it might just be that we have a deeper 'c' wave pull back. Of note this morning is the poke out of the diagonal on the MFI study, even tough price has not really got going down hill yet. The 1min chart has provided a number of lower highs already and I have taken one and gone short, for minimal risk, in case we get something that sticks downhill for a bit. That 61.8% target would be a great Friday! We are approaching the lower 15min bolly band, and then the 60min median line, so we will know soon enough if we get a trending move or not.