Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Saturday, 10 August 2013

EURUSD: Weekend Summary

Well, so far so good: the 45degree 'bull/bear' divide of the 'all-time high/low' mirror Gann square (red vertical and horizontals), held to the downside last week and even started to soften on Friday. We have an 'abc' formation in the weekly momentum study and a red 10year Hull to work with on the bear case, but a drop through the 1.3103 Harmonic Octave is probably the proof of the pudding, so to speak. The whole formation from blue '1' upwards appears to be a fractal of green '1' up, so any break uphill would change the feel of the count and I'd look again at the thesis.
The daily chart houses the reflections of the 2012 high/low Gann Square (red verticals and horizontals). I have marked out the Harmonic Octaves in blue and overlaid the 'all time' high low Gann square Harmonic Octaves in gold. We are due a 100 day low around the 22nd August and if Friday's softening in prices have ushered in the turn, then first stop looks like the 1.3125-1.3100 zone. This is the confluence of the 6th HO in the annual high/low Gann square and the 5th HO in the all-time high/low square. Given price is right up in the rafters of the annual square at present, having previously failed to hold the break in February, I am anticipating a sharp rejection of the 45degree line from the first chart and a sharp move down. However, both the 200day Hull and the 25day FLD need to break in confirmation and thus far have not. Failure to hold above that confluence and I'll be looking for the bottom of the annual square at 1.20411, where the 'all time' high low square's 4th HO sits - that being the 50% marker at 1.21327.  The gold dots show a possible pathway to monitor.
The 90minute chart houses the monthly reflections of the July 'high/'low Gann square (red vertical and horizontal) and as of Friday was sat on or inside the high - just! The momentum cluster is confirming the move downhill, but a break of the annual' square's 7th HO at 1.33059 is needed to get this ball rolling into the 1.3125-1.3100 zone as previously mentioned. If the 25 day Hull can turn red and holds on Monday, whilst taking out the 50% 45 degree angle (gold) and the 1.33059 line, then we may see matters impulse. The 25day bollys look like they are building a pinch, so maybe some congestion in the 1.3125 zone to set things up, either way. Given the summer doldrums, this may pan out to be all of next week's storyboard. Alternatively, a break and hold of last month's high at 1.3343 and maybe we go to retest last year's high at 1.34853.

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