Following on from the last post, showing price engaging with the underside of the 45degree line separating bull from bear expectations, I have changed the EW count to something a bit more aggressive, in honour of the Gann square placement. Do look at the last post on this 'all time high/low' mirror square.
We still need some follow through to the downside as the daily chart shows the 200day Hull and 25day FLD in a bullish formation. However, the 100 day low is due, as seen by the dashed line and circle below, so I am ever hopeful of a decline in due course, at whatever degree. The Gann squares on this chart are reflections of the 2012/2013 high low, with price re-looking at last year's high of course, having failed in February to make the break stick. An initial look at last year's low would be a good start in my opinion!
The 25day cycle is also bullish at the moment with price having taken out last month's high, but the 25day low is due soon too (blue dashed bottom right), which ties up with the 100 day low in the above chart. Given the momentum cluster in both the daily and this chart, I think that 45 degree line in the first may have anti burglar paint on the underside!
So, with price already pushing the weekly bollinger top, providing plenty of room to the downside for a slide downhill, I am looking to stay short and await some impulsive moves to back up the thesis.
Hi Clive, I'd be keen to hear your view on EUR/JPY? The run up this year has been huge and the positioning in the cross is still long, unlike EUR/USD. On longer term charts it feels like we are topping and given the impulsive way the cross moves I think the sell off coul be brutal but as always would be keen to hear what you think especially given your eur/usd view.
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