EURUSD: a route to follow?

I have mapped out the time and price paths for a head and shoulders pattern as shown, on the 25 pip range bar chart. I have changed the colours to make the pyrapoint calcs stand out as they provide useful S&R points.

EURUSD

With the 45 degree line under pressure here, I have placed shorts to cover below that last low. Bit tight at the moment but no sign of upward anything for now and do not want to be arguing with the market much longer. Hope it sticks here but shorts in place in case.

EURUSD: a bullish view

 Price has made it to the 45 degree line of the Gann Grid. This is the preferred support for a bullish move to base itself. Until that line is broken, I am assuming price aimed for and arrived here safely.

 The 20 day FLD is in tact, albeit the weekly is looking in terminal decline at the moment. The momentum study is ambiguous as discussed earlier but both the regression channels off the last nested lows are still bullish. We need a move above the daily pivot to get price bullish.

The 25 pip range bar MMA is still bullish but with price at the spine and the 50 bar FLD above, we need a turn here to keep the bears at bay. The momentum study supports some stickiness, but will it be enough to prevent a waterfall? I have already posted my EW count: either 'c' down or '3' is pretty much done. Do we get a wave 4 now or something more bullish to push up into a larger diagonal as per the first chart?

USDollar

Does this contracting diagonal need another leg down. If so, this would correlate to the new high I am looking for in EURUSD.

EURUSD

Maybe it can extend again but starting to push my limits for sure. Other counts have this as a wave 3 down, but we will not know until we see the reaction. Something uphill should be just around corner given 61.8% retrace has been hit too.

EURUSD

The plan from the weekend summary was to play shorts down to 1.3615, close to the 61.8% retracement zone of the move up. The analysis was good but not matched by my trading which phased out the shorts too early and failed to bank interim longs due to time away from the screen with family birthday celebrations. However, I wanted to be long at the golden spine of the Range Bar MMA and I am.

However, we do not have a nested low in the Phasing Study, in fact far from it. So either this is not the low (perhaps only 'a' of 'c') or it is still within the lower degree and there is another high to go before we make for the nested low. It is coming, so best not be long when that turn comes after all this jerky movements, but I do hope for a new high to clear out a diagonal and provide a clean run down hill.

EURUSD

Well that is 50% retracement achieved. Could have held on to my shorts a little longer in hindsight but I am focused on the upside now.

EURUSD

 
This chart was from the weekend report (right side of blog page), covered 3 options for price action for the week. I discussed the phasing aspects leaning towards a pull back and although not to the extent hoped for, we have had one, which may or may not be over. Given that this aspect needs a solid test (was this move down 'a' or all of the retrace?) I am now net long and hoping for a new high nearer 1.3908, to unload longs and position short again when safer to do so, for the longer journey downhill.

Price did cut the 10day FLD last night and is now bouncing at the half way point (pyrapoint 1.36882) of my initial downside target of 1.36152. But with positive divergence on the momentum study and an EW count that suggests upside is likely, I would not be surprised if this 10day FLD is recaptured, if not firmly tested, along with the red 5day FLD above. This is where the  "is it a 'b' up or bigger" conversation will be decided me thinks.

EURUSD

Back from day out and looks like 2nd count was pretty good. Have banked more shorts and those that took me flat this morning and looking for up again.

EURUSD

I am out with the kids today, so having to set my plans in advance which lost me an opportunity yesterday, but you can not win them all. I am net long and have set my limit order at 1.3895, just under that 1.3908 Pyrapoint line I have been wittering on about for a week. I have also set sell orders to take me flat below this morning's low. Fingers crossed for a continuous rise today!

EURUSD

I had labelled this a 'b' wave down of 'B' yesterday but the longer this likely ending diagonal fills out, the more I am thinking this could actually be 'C' down. As such, I am still looking for uphill, but need to clarify if this is only 'a of C' completing or something bigger. I think the former, but hope for the latter! I have left yesterday's count in for now in the first chart and a possible amendment in the second.

EURUSD

Well, I was right to cover as price did break out strongly from the diagonal but I was not here to bank it and come back from celebrations to a bit of a mess. I am counting this lot as per chart and banking some more shorts and adding longs. I am now net long by half my usual allocation and looking for a 'c' of 'B' in this overall correction, maybe even for a new high for an expanded flat.

EURUSD

Range study has this formation looking complete on break of that trend line of the diagonal. My short cover looking good at the moment! Given the phasing study in the weekend report, I am looking for a 'b' leg up or a quick new high to get the real correction started. It is coming, if this is not it. Note for a new high that 1.3908 is the next Pyrapoint line up from the current high and is the 90 degree line from the 1.27541 base low for the calcs. Anyways, glad to be flat for now and catch up on return from birthday celebrations.

EURUSD

Banked just under half of my shorts there and covered the rest for retail sales etc, coming up soon. So I am flat here as I do not trust that 4hr momentum nest study and would like to see the hourly back overbought than down here to re-look at the situation. I am out for the rest for the day and early evening with birthday celebrations, so catch up this evening.

EURUSD

I have been here so many times over the years, it makes my eyes boil! Price action looks choppy and corrective but is making all the right noises for a continued drop as well. Following on from yesterday's posts then, price has now cut the weekly (red) FLD and is firmly under the daily pivot and yesterday's low.  Price is currently battling the trap door at 1.37614 as discussed and if taken out, should open up a trip to 1.36152 at the next Pyrapoint line I am interested in, as it sits at the 61.8% retracement of the breakout from 1.34717. However, the 4hr momentum study is oversold and the pattern does look like a diagonal. But I am not running way from my shorts as a sidewards correction from here could absorb the oversold conditions. I have moved my cover down to just above the daily pivot, as that zone has already been tested 3 times today, and a breach will probably mean my journey down hill is actually over.

EURUSD

42.7 pips - the days range - is it me?!  Price is still sat on the ledge with the 5day FLD immediately below. No change in strategy: short to 1.36152 or more if possible with cover above today's high. Managed to do the wife's birthday shopping and cook a Sweet Potato and Pecan Cake whilst nothing was happening here - there are some benefits then!

EURUSD

Price is definitely looking at the exit door, but unless it pushes through the trap, we got ourselves a bigger corrective pattern to contend with. I have placed short cover orders above this mornings high, just in case.

US$

Gann grid of last year's high to low, provides some useful perspective at this juncture. Price is at the 45 degree line, having seemingly created a contracting diagonal into it. If the 45 degree line gives way, we may see price push for last year's low, but if it holds, it still has the UTL of the diagonal to take out before making for the 50% grid line (gold above). The momentum study is obviously oversold and I am hoping that this will help my EURUSD shorts out. Decision time?

EURUSD

Quiet start. Looking for Pyrapoint line 1.37614 to break down,  to open up wave's golden spine at the next line down at 1.36512. If I were going to buy, that is where I'd want to, so hoping the market will take my shorts down there rather than to 1.39084 above first.

Dow Jones $indu: weekend summary

This ride up has thus far taken out the grid square horizontal for the 4th time (being the 100% of last year' high to low distance) and the two 45 degree angles at the apex, to put price in the bullish side of the square above. Having also tested and stayed above the trend line (gold dashed) with what in hindsight might have been an expanded flat correction, those momentum studies are still offering little gravitas, although the blue daily study is a tad leggy. Whilst price remains above that 15330 grid horizontal directly below price, looking for safe places to enter long continues to appear to be the only play in town. If price does drop through the 45 degree line and then run up the underside after bouncing off the horizontal, we would have a definite track to run on in due course.

 The MMA range bar study suggests a diagonal in the first leg from the low up is coming to an end with 5 waves in the contracting pattern. The momentum study counts as such and is obviously overbought on the approach to the 15722 high. A corrective pattern that squeezes down to the golden spine would set up a great buy opportunity and leave early shorts in the dark cold waters. I have already bitten my short bullets and hope to make up for those losses with longs in due course.

The cyclic phasing study highlights the prior momentum nest and again with hindsight, it is obvious that the recent low came in short time compared to the previous low to low cycle (pink boxes). This might mean this current cycle runs long and that would fit with a new high coming, supported by clean break of the 85.4% speed line (red dashed) of the previous high to low. The 45 degree Pyrapoint line at 15329.82 would fit with the Gann Grid Square line noted in the first chart and if the corrective pattern was very flat, it would lay over the topside of the 85.4% Speedline like a feather, whilst reaching out to the LTL of the Regression study. For sure, the momentum study needs time to unwind and this scenario would frustrate the hell out of bears.

On the shorter term study, I continue to seek a EW count that sticks and this one follows the above thesis. A break of the red weekly FLD would usher in the correction but I think the green 20day FLD will hold it in due course and set up the buy signal. For now, sitting and watching.

EURJPY: Weekend Summary

Looking like price is in the 5th leg within the contacting diagonal in the 5th wave up. The intersection of the Grid squares is coming up on the 6th November, with a clear 'peak' diagonal formation just after that if price wanted to squeeze into it. Whilst the 45degree diagonal just under price holds, expect further grinding, until a likely pop and drop, although it could just be over already.

After the five legs up in what is probably 'a' in leg 5, we are falling back here. I have marked out the 61.8% of that 'a' up, to possibly pick up the 'c' leg which could be a doozy if it is ending the whole move up. Otherwise, I'd expect the drop to continue and take out the 45 degree line from above.

Similar to USDJPY in my earlier post, the phasing study suggests the nested low has already been put in and one is not expected so soon. So if the low is taken out, it would add to my conviction that the move up is over, but until it is taken out then upward grinding after the 'b' down is over, as above. The 20day FLD maybe a good target for 'c' up to begin (or fail!).

USDJPY: weekend summary

The question still remains: is this a 4th wave triangle looking for continuation uphill or is it a 'B' wave in the 4th looking to break down in 'C'. Not a lot of help from the momentum study either, so at this degree, whilst price is still in the pattern, I am only looking for 'abc's.

The MMA study suggest that 'b' down is likely to give way to at least 'c' up, if not already started. If it turns into something bigger then great. Little bit of work to do, but it does look like it does want to 'cut' uphill.

The cyclic phasing study, appears to confirm that the last low at 96.554 was the nested low and as such, seems to support the 'b' wave retracement as discussed above. However, both the weekly and monthly FLD's need breaking above to confirm. If that nested low gives way, I'd be thinking that the triangle was just the 'B' wave and we'd be in 'C' down. If that were the case, I'd be waiting for the momentum study to go overbought, to sell.

EURUSD: weekend summary

Having battled away at last year's high of 1.34853, EURUSD finally used the vertical on the Gann Grid to rise. This leaves price with 3 options: a continual rise to the gold 50% grid line above at 1.4200, a retracement to the 45degree line at approx 1.3650 (my favorite), or a deeper decline to test the 1.3485 line again as well as the rising trend line. Red arrows mark the options out on the grid. Having also taken out the prior high at 1.3710 this week, the overbought momentum cluster suggests that some back testing should be anticipated and I had been trying to position for this all week, with little joy I would add!

The MMA study of the 25pip range bars highlights the break of the upper trend lines, but combined with an overbought momentum study and a severe 'bubble' from the wave's golden 'spine, it looks to be tottering. So, assuming the upward trend is to continue, I'd be looking to buy near the spine or at least deeper into the wave, after a retracement pattern. If the move into that wave turns into something stronger, then great but I am not chasing this uphill and indeed thought it worth shorting.

The phasing study shows pink boxes at 'nested' lows from 1.27541. Within that regression channel, we have a second low at 1.31037 to also aim at in the next drop into the momentum nest. I have marked out with the orange dashed line, the 100% of the prior lows in 'time' and visually, it looks proportionate going forward. With the green 20day FLD, the two regression channel LTLs and the 61.8% retracement targets of the' two lows to the current high', to aim at, there is plenty to bank on a drop, but willing it to happen has been frustrating! The green dashed diagonal seemed to break on Friday, but nothing committed thus far to proving my thesis correct and that weekly red FLD is still in tact.

A glimmer of hope however did surface on Friday and that was the corrective reaction to the 60min momentum study bottoming out. That, of course, could just be a mirage of Friday afternoon's shutting down in the markets but given the above, I do hope for some follow through to the downside early next week. Certainly, anymore upside in the same general area will not phase me. We shall see..

EURUSD

Gone quiet again and after a promising start this morning exiting the diagonal. Looks like a corrective move since then, so hoping for 'C' or  'c' of 'A' down in due course.

EURUSD

Always amazes me how the squiggles can still get fitted in with little price change; that be diagonals for you. Just need the drop to confirm end of pattern.

Dow Jones

Still struggling with this. Sure I am not alone! New high there could be an expanded flat following the last count or a 5th as in this one. Something that looks corrective down hill would help to pin this down of course, but it does like to keep going up.

EURUSD

I am a bit bored of waiting and I hope the weekend does not get in the way, especially after two Claims days this week. Just need someone to light the fuse.

Dow Jones $indu

I am thinking that is as close to an acceptable count for a long time - ending diagonal completed at the 15520 high with this being a retracement of the drop out of that. Have lost my longs and added shorts here at 15500. Fingers crossed.

EURUSD - NFP

Given price has not made it back to the weekly FLD so far this week, I am going to make that my limit order for closing my shorts: 1.3675.

However, can't help but notice the 90degree Pyrapoint calc at 1.3908, calc'd off the 1.27541 low. Might be more attractive than coming down for me!