Having battled away at last year's high of 1.34853, EURUSD finally used the vertical on the Gann Grid to rise. This leaves price with 3 options: a continual rise to the gold 50% grid line above at 1.4200, a retracement to the 45degree line at approx 1.3650 (my favorite), or a deeper decline to test the 1.3485 line again as well as the rising trend line. Red arrows mark the options out on the grid. Having also taken out the prior high at 1.3710 this week, the overbought momentum cluster suggests that some back testing should be anticipated and I had been trying to position for this all week, with little joy I would add!
The MMA study of the 25pip range bars highlights the break of the upper trend lines, but combined with an overbought momentum study and a severe 'bubble' from the wave's golden 'spine, it looks to be tottering. So, assuming the upward trend is to continue, I'd be looking to buy near the spine or at least deeper into the wave, after a retracement pattern. If the move into that wave turns into something stronger, then great but I am not chasing this uphill and indeed thought it worth shorting.
The phasing study shows pink boxes at 'nested' lows from 1.27541. Within that regression channel, we have a second low at 1.31037 to also aim at in the next drop into the momentum nest. I have marked out with the orange dashed line, the 100% of the prior lows in 'time' and visually, it looks proportionate going forward. With the green 20day FLD, the two regression channel LTLs and the 61.8% retracement targets of the' two lows to the current high', to aim at, there is plenty to bank on a drop, but willing it to happen has been frustrating! The green dashed diagonal seemed to break on Friday, but nothing committed thus far to proving my thesis correct and that weekly red FLD is still in tact.
A glimmer of hope however did surface on Friday and that was the corrective reaction to the 60min momentum study bottoming out. That, of course, could just be a mirage of Friday afternoon's shutting down in the markets but given the above, I do hope for some follow through to the downside early next week. Certainly, anymore upside in the same general area will not phase me. We shall see..
No comments:
Post a Comment