Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Saturday, 15 December 2012

Weekend Summary

Not quite the end to the week I was planning on but I think the bull run is on borrowed time.
This is how I am counting that last leg up. They may be more squiggles at the top, but looks okay to me. I had been long up to D5 earlier in the week but reckoned (guessed!) on a 'b' wave up, not this 5th. I am short at the top of the spike up there and hope to make up for lost time trying to short into that expanding diagonal on Thursday/Friday.
This was my second option from my bigger picture work (albeit not my favourite) and we made it in a lunge to the 1.3163 Gann line. I was going to bank my longs here earlier in the week but got lost in that messy consolidation and missed out. Hey ho. I am also counting 5 waves up from 1.2041 here, possibly for 'A' but or maybe '1'. In this latter count, the 4th wave (abc) is in fact 'B' and we are in 'C' up. Won't worry about that now. A slide down that parallel of the 'abc' should held clarify by the size of the retracement.
The My-Grid off the 1.6037 all time high, got another poke on Friday but is still not broken in my opinion yet. Nor the red trend line off the 2010 low. The monthly My-wave is still positive however, and after this week, I am even more cautious of any upside explosion. If we get a limited retracement next week into that My-Wave rather than a runaway train that turns it down, I would have to lean towards a 3rd up in the 'C' wave to come. I'd prefer to see a pull back to the blue perimeter wall to set up the strike upwards.
I do feel like a broken record, but these 'D' lines are all out of quilter and the push past D5 without backtesting D4, D6 or D7 leaves a trail of magnetic power unclaimed. There are higher order 'D' lines (D8 & D9) 200 pips higher (see lines in the sky report) but I don't think so yet. I have drawn in the proposed retracement route and would love to go long with everything down there.
This would also get T8 tagged which has been left out of the party since T7 made its drive for T11. A pull back would also tidy up the regression channel exit from the main drive down. Combined with the 'D' line work and the EW counts, I am holding out for this and although I hate to have wasted time over the last couple of days trading, hope to make up for it with a deep driving retracement starting into Christmas and over the New Year.

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