D10 was 'cut' conclusively in Sept 2011. The sequential targets for D10 are D9 & D11. Price has been aggressively flirting with D9 ever since but the latest flurry since Sept 2012 has been as D9 was calling a 'top'. The inability to 'cut' D9 here may signal a last gasp for now, as D8 has been tagged at the same time, after calling the bottom in July very accurately. With both D9 and D8 holding out to the downside, the D11 target mentioned above, may turn out to be the real goal or at least appear to be (note double bottom possibility!). D8 was 'cut' to the downside in Dec 2011 and has not been beaten back to date. If it holds here, breaking down D6 should provide added momentum for D7, as D7 is both a sequential target for D8 & D6. This is far enough of a target for me for now.
This is the same chart as above but squeezed to emphasise the bottoming cycle of D10. Having been 'cut' in 2011, price is reacting to the failure by testing it. The red slash above D10 shows the distance to travel to see the retracement momentum out the other side. I prefer the double bottom at D7, then a fast thrust back to D9 before dropping to D11 during the latter part of 2013. It looks quite possible that D11 provides a diagonal backbone right into late 2014 although D9 may shepherd price over before D10.
Thought it would be interesting to highlight how displaced averages provide a series of long term possibilities. Although the actual route to come is for the market to decide and not me, it is absolutely guaranteed that these 'D' lines will be the gateways to that eventual journey. The goal for me in 2013 is to follow the market as it decides whether to rebuff the gates or pass through them, knowing that the next sequential number will be the outcome of that decision. the higher the number, the bigger the reward!
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