EURUSD

Holding flat still, although I was recycling that position all day yesterday (banking longs and then shorts) due to the ranging.The move down yesterday and overnight has managed to make an initial challenge of the 20day FLD (orange), having already 'cut' the 5day & 10day FLDs. This is the natural order of the 'ladder' in my working thesis, and is essential if price is to make it to the 40day FLD - see weekend report for cyclic phasing. However, the 80day FLD (blue) appears to be working as a spine to a contracting diagonal (blue dotted line for UTL) and with the 8hr momentum cluster looking messy/incomplete, I am thinking either Leading Diagonal or Corrective to be clarified in due course, with pop up either way. The fact that the 20,50 & 100 daily SMAs sit under price and are all green for bullish and saw a solid reaction last week, has me flat and cautious until I see 3 waves up to short. I may regret being flat, but that gap has not been closed and the 5day FLD (purple) has a peak to attack in the same zone. Hopefully, see you up higher for a safer place to lose the longs.

EURUSD

Nice drop in Sunday markets - I have gone flat here at 1.3754 as I am in lectures all day tomorrow and can not control anything whilst teaching. Catch up tomorrow evening GMT.

EURUSD: Weekend Analysis

Big Picture

 The monthly chart continues to show consolidation with the overall direction of the MMA Wave bullish - indicated by the blue arrow at bottom of chart (defined by it's own red 50% trend being greater than the full white trend). But with that momentum study sat where it is, one has got to be cautious of upside follow through in my opinion.

The weekly chart continues to show a bullish trend with the recent price action doing little to detract from the overall direction. The momentum study obviously shows the retracement and it diverged negatively from the price action, but whether that shows the strength of the trend or suggests the bullish action of late is a faker, is the question wracking the markets. Price and the momentum study are sat at a break out point quite clearly, but will it push through or pull back?

Intermediate Picture

On the daily chart, the 640 day MMA Wave is also bullish and has been since Sept 2012, following the pivot low in July 2012. There has not been a clean 'nested low' in momentum (sub-chart) since April 2013 and the recent 80day cycle low (see later) did not achieve one. I have placed a blue box ahead in time to remind me of this fact, not for exact timing. I have marked out orange numbers 1,2,3 - compare the price action to the thick light blue /80day cycle. In '1' the price was no where near the 80day cycle line; in '2' price rode up the back of it; in '3' price spent half the time under it and has just broken above. It appears to me, given the placement of the momentum study in the sub-chart, that the 80day trend and therefore the 640day is weakening. I, for one, do not trust the upward weekly and monthly bullish trends at this stage, and want to see a 'nested low' in the daily chart first.

 The 80day cycles are mapped out on this daily chart from the July 2012 low. They are pretty uniform, albeit I always have to contend with cycles running long or short. One can keep rolling averages of the actual length of the cycle and some analysts include the weekends in the rolling count, but I do not and the results are clear to see. The vertical dotted lines counts the exact 80 day cycle from the July 2012 low and the horizontal lines are the actual cycles, low to low, highlighted with arrows as appropriate. I have recently synthesized the momentum study in the sub-chart to provide a clearer indicator of whether the 80day cycle low has been and gone and it appears the 3rd February low was the actual low and the recent bounce has come out of the subsequent 20 day low. Price is already pushing into the daily, weekly and monthly bolly bands tops, although there 200 pips or so to the latter, with the first mid-line annual pivot sat above at 1.3834 ( R1 sits at 1.4198). I am intrigued by the negative divergence on the momentum study running into the 80day low, combined with the price action as described in the chart above. As such, I have decided to attempt selling into the 40day low, due at the end of March, rather than play the break out for now, although anything over 1.3834 and I'll be flat as a pancake - see chart 2 for clear reasoning!! The 40day low is my next place to consider a long shot and only then if the storyboard supports the bullish case is holding out.


Moving down into the 4hr chart, locate the February 80day low in the sub-chart, to tie in with the daily above. I have re-positioned the 20 day cycle to commence at that date and the striking moves up last week coincided with the first 20day low. However, although I was able to benefit from the move into that low and the move up out of it, for reasons already explained I am aiming at the drop into the 40day low to clarify any weakness in the underlying 80day trend. The 1.3744 grid line looks like a good place to start that assessment as the 10day and 20day FLDs sit there. Note also, how the 40day trough is already below those 10/20day FLDs, so any move down into the 40day low is likely to test the 40 day FLD, coming up at an angle from left to right. My best guess is that price action is going to follow the blue 80day FLD down into the trough where the 40 day low resides at 1.3560, also a grid line. We should see the brown momentum study create a low at that point as well, if all goes well. So, for now, I am not following the move up and going back to the daily chart (3), I won't until there is a nested low behind me!

EURUSD: looks like a fractal

It is a fractal of the ride up into the xmas high. Looking for retest of annual pivot or interim support line, most likely 1.3560. Reversal pattern required but longs not an option for me unless 1.3745 holds after solid retracement.

EURUSD

So much for my day of rest! I am going to be nibbling in shorts every 25 pips or so: the FLD chart has a very clear 40 day trough below, and although we have just had a combined 20/40day FLD bounce that went according to plan like a dream, I am now looking for the next move. See how price is moving into the daily bollys again at the 1.3818 square root progression calc - these bollys have been tweaked a bit to make them harder to reach (not SD of close!) - so I reckon the 40day trough is going to either cause a diagonal to build above or a drop. Either way, I am selling relative highs from here.

EURUSD

Just banked all of that and thank you very much indeed. Will let this settle and reassess later.

EURUSD

I have re-jigged the count a little to take out the expanding diagonal and add in an expanding flat. I think the 162% extension makes a lot of sense in testing the 1.3892 high from Christmas and keeps the red dashed trend line in play too. Not much different, but helping me focus on that target if we can see a push past 1.3745.

Now, I might be ill, but them dogs still need walking and it is absolutely chucking it down outside with rain - great!

EURUSD

I am ridden with flu this morning and will keep the post brief. Price bounced from the SMA confluence with the 20/40day FLDs yesterday and is now sat under the 5/10 & 80day FLDs having 'cut' the 160d.fld to the upside. I have moved my breakeven to just under the daily pivot, which has already been tested this morning, and hope for a breakout above. Targeting 1.3818 to 1.3850. As long as price stays above the orange 20day FLD, I am trying to stay long as the 80day cycle is still bullish.

EURUSD

Taken the opportunity to bank a few more shorts with the 4hr momentum cluster making positive divergence suggestions. The 5day, 10day & 80 day FLDs are all sat together at 1.3745 (a square root progression number off 1.3892 and 1.2041), and a successful break of the golden 160d.fld, should see an attempt at this zone at least. Looking for this 20day/40day zone to hold here, as recall it also holds the 20,50 & 100 day SMAs - see yesterday's posts.

EURUSD

I have my longs covered directly under yesterday's low, but looking for the 160d.FLD to break to the upside, based on the placement of the momentum study. Whether or not, the 20d & 40d.flds have had enough of look in thus far, is the question, but a break above the gold FLD is likely to see price push back on the 80d.FLD above with renewed passion. The MMA wave has the 80day (green line) still above the thin gold 160day trend, so if the above comes to pass, we will have confirmation for now that the 80day trend is still in command, which is why a break of the blue 80d.fld would be interesting at this stage of the momentum study.

EURUSD

With the 20 & 40 day FLDs pretty well backtested, any trip back north through the 160day FLD, will leave the 80day FLD with all the permissions it needs to progress uphill - see last post. This is the count I am running with for a longer 'e' leg in my 'B' diagonal and likely to follow a contracting diagonal into the close. May as work it right up to the 1.3892 high, but will be flat well before that!!

EURUSD

This is getting very close to my target zone from earlier today (and all week!), so I am edging net long here and will look to build a greater position if the drop moves my remaining shorts into profit.

EURUSD

Well, that is more like it, but I have banked half the shorts and  gone flat. 2 reasons really. Firstly, the half banked was a good amount of money in real terms and this has been an awfully slow consolidation. Secondly, that 2hr momentum study is already looking oversold and if this is not 'the one' then the bounce could be spikey to set up the real one. So, although somewhat defeatist and possibly trigger happy, I am flat and hoping for more, but from higher up. As such, a bounce from the gold 160day FLD would be great but quite happy to bank more shorts nearer the 20/40day FLD combo lower down, if price continues to fall.

EURUSD

Yesterday's chart was a stripped down version of today's. Just wanted to keep the SMA cluster in mind - we have the 20,50 & 100 day SMAs, all in the 1.3620-1.3650 zone, along with the 20 & 40day FLDs - see red sidewards arrow in main chart. I'll not be betting on a 'cut' here and will bank all shorts or cover as price approaches (if it does!). The market sees the triangle that has been building of late, but unless last week's high is taken out, I am short and hopeful, whilst my trend indicators show the 5x10 & 10x20day trends are bearish (sub chart)..

EURUSD: zooming out

Keeping focused on the bigger picture can be a little testing when matters are apparently so slow, but I keep moving in and out of time frames until I can find a storyboard that makes sense to me. This 2hr chart just about keeps all the relevant facts on one page: the MMA wave is comprised of the 80day trend and its 100% extension at 160day and then again at 320day. This MMA wave is currently in a bearish formation, but has been under attack from a bullish 80 day trend since the 1.3476 low, with price sat on top of that wave at present. However, if you tease that MMA wave apart into its derivative parts (so, 20,40,80,160,320 day trends) and then shift each one forward by half of their length (I use half or double of everything to create a sequence ladder), you get a maze of future decision points for price to work through. Troughs and Peaks and the lines themselves are viewed as possible zones to attract price, depending on whether larger cycles are working with or against the trend in question. So, for example, this bullish 80day trend, is making it hard work for the price to move down towards the 20 or 40day FLDs, illustrated by prices stickiness to the 80day & 160day FLDs. However, as I say, the 160x320day trend is still down and if the 160day FLD can get 'cut' to the downside, not only will the 20day and 40day FLDs get hit in quick succession, but where the hell is that 320day FLD?

I have been posting my EW count on the 48 pip range bar study because it strips out time and leaves tighter looking patterns (for good or for bad!). The 320day FLD from the first chart, is spot on with my count as it would be, because the Hurst model came first. We humans do love a good story, but will mine get a chance to shine?

EURUSD

The break through the blue daily & purple 5day FLD this morning followed the backtest of the red 10day FLD yesterday, which was also yesterday's low. I have banked my longs from last night on the approach to yesterday's high and will re-engage if the high gets taken out from last week's high (1.3772).

With the 20day trend (see sub chart) still negative, and with the 80day low (see weekend report) due at the end of the month, I am keeping to the short program until that 20 day FLD (orange ) is hit.

The manner in which that eventual move pans out, will help to decypher this mess, which for now looks like a diagonal - see the range bar study below.

eurusd

It looks like I missed the opportunity to bank more shorts today, but can not teach and trade at the same time! Looks like it wants to move up to the next square root progression line at 1.3818, which is also the weekly pivot R2 this week and the daily bolly roof. The momentum study suggests we are in a 'b' wave here, so I have gone completely flat and I'll look to bank longs higher or shorts lower - but right now, flat.

EURUSD - weekend review

I'll be in lectures until tomorrow evening, so a summary now and I'll probably be off air until Tuesday.

 Cyclic Phasing: always assuming that my interpretation is correct of course, I have the 80 trading day low coming for the end of the month. The only 10day cycle within that, that did not come in almost to the day, was the 7th, which was early. So, I am looking for an 8th 10day low to conclude this 80day cycle which has spent half going up and the 2nd half going sidewards. The Raff Regression channel from the last 80 day low has its LTL at just below the annual pivot (1.3476) and a touch there would be a neat to say the least. This would mean price 'cutting' the 20 day FLD (orange) to reach down to the VTL (pink dashed) also sat at the annual pivot (white dashed) or the Harmonic line at 1.34375. I don't really mind how far price pushes downhill, as I am net short, but catching the lift up the other side might be very rewarding indeed.

The 5x10 & 10x20 day trends were negative on Friday, notwithstanding the recovery late on, (see 1st sub-chart) with price hovering above the 80day FLD and the 160day sat right underneath. The placement of the 80day FLD is the key anchor point for me, once I am confident the 80day cyclic low is in place. The further away price can be from the FLD, at its cyclic low, the more punch I'll get for my risk long later. A move down through the 80day & 160day FLD this week, should zip through to the 20day & 40 day FLDs with no issues whatsoever (being half way points of smaller cycles) and I think that daily bolly band and 200dsma look just peachy for a realistic eventual target. The question I ask, is where the market would want to be before committing long and that seems to be a great supply zone to me. Will it get there is not up to me!!

Moving into the 30min chart and we can see that price action created an inside day, Friday. The 1-5day trends were all positive at the close, but price was being capped by the weekly FLD, with the daily and 2 weekly FLDs below the daily pivot. There was enough potential in the 4hr momentum studies for me to cover half my shorts at the close, although I hope to lose them for a small gain or BE before any move downhill gets going. Generally, I am looking for a move down to the 20day FLD at the bottom of the chart and that then to get 'cut' to the downside, to mark the half way point in a move down to the 1.3476 area (hope!!).

 As matters stood Friday, the Range Bar Studies all remained bullish, albeit they are derivatives of each other of course. What I am looking for is a push down in the 48pip RBS with a nested low in the momentum study by the end of this 80day cycle and then a turn up in the 12RBS and backtest to enter long, coming out of that low. Will it all go according to plan? We shall see!

12pipRBS

24pipRBS

48pipRBS

EURUSD

Price just could not hold the underside of the 80day FLD or the LTL of the regression channel up from 1.3476 today, although is sat inside the 5day FLD at the close. With the daily bollys and 80day price envelope in the 1.3818 area and the 4hr momentum cluster looking poised, I have banked all shorts in profit from the bouncing price action today and covered half of the rest. This feels like perfect 'peek, poke & drop' territory with that roof space above and the need to get down to the 20day FLD below as well, and it could be a 5th up to complete the assumed 'e' leg. It has been very profitable playing the range to the downside this week and  there is still all of next week to fit in my 80day cyclic low, so plenty of time for a drive down, even if there is a new high, first. I did not want to go into the weekend with naked shorts alone, but I am 50% net short and comfortable with that. Have a great weekend everyone.

EURUSD

Well, a 'b' wave triangle, but in the other direction! If the high can hold out, then perhaps a more aggressive, 1-2, but if not, I am still looking for a move down into the month end. I'll mark it up as a 1-2 for now.