iQuaestor: EURUSD - weekend review

I'll be in lectures until tomorrow evening, so a summary now and I'll probably be off air until Tuesday.

Cyclic Phasing: always assuming that my interpretation is correct of course, I have the 80 trading day low coming for the end of the month. The only 10day cycle within that, that did not come in almost to the day, was the 7th, which was early. So, I am looking for an 8th 10day low to conclude this 80day cycle which has spent half going up and the 2nd half going sidewards. The Raff Regression channel from the last 80 day low has its LTL at just below the annual pivot (1.3476) and a touch there would be a neat to say the least. This would mean price 'cutting' the 20 day FLD (orange) to reach down to the VTL (pink dashed) also sat at the annual pivot (white dashed) or the Harmonic line at 1.34375. I don't really mind how far price pushes downhill, as I am net short, but catching the lift up the other side might be very rewarding indeed.

The 5x10 & 10x20 day trends were negative on Friday, notwithstanding the recovery late on, (see 1st sub-chart) with price hovering above the 80day FLD and the 160day sat right underneath. The placement of the 80day FLD is the key anchor point for me, once I am confident the 80day cyclic low is in place. The further away price can be from the FLD, at its cyclic low, the more punch I'll get for my risk long later. A move down through the 80day & 160day FLD this week, should zip through to the 20day & 40 day FLDs with no issues whatsoever (being half way points of smaller cycles) and I think that daily bolly band and 200dsma look just peachy for a realistic eventual target. The question I ask, is where the market would want to be before committing long and that seems to be a great supply zone to me. Will it get there is not up to me!!

Moving into the 30min chart and we can see that price action created an inside day, Friday. The 1-5day trends were all positive at the close, but price was being capped by the weekly FLD, with the daily and 2 weekly FLDs below the daily pivot. There was enough potential in the 4hr momentum studies for me to cover half my shorts at the close, although I hope to lose them for a small gain or BE before any move downhill gets going. Generally, I am looking for a move down to the 20day FLD at the bottom of the chart and that then to get 'cut' to the downside, to mark the half way point in a move down to the 1.3476 area (hope!!).

As matters stood Friday, the Range Bar Studies all remained bullish, albeit they are derivatives of each other of course. What I am looking for is a push down in the 48pip RBS with a nested low in the momentum study by the end of this 80day cycle and then a turn up in the 12RBS and backtest to enter long, coming out of that low. Will it all go according to plan? We shall see!

12pipRBS