#EURUSD $EURUSD #trading

The sun is shining this morning in the UK, so plenty to do outside! A quick overview of the week ahead from a Hurst FLD (future lines of demarcation) and Regression Analysis.

I have drawn out the hoped for paths of price, momentum and volume with white dotted lines. The dominant trend in the drop down appears to have been the 50day trend, which from the week's posts, you'll already know was softening before the drop into the low, with the 25day trend turning high (see past posts). If the 50 day trend is going to hold the price action, then it follows that it will wish to test the rungs of the sequence ladder, below and above that trend. In the case of my interpretation of matters, that means the 25day, 50day and 100day FLDs. Well, we slammed into the 25day on Thursday/Friday, along with the upper bollys for both the 2hr & 8hr periods. After a 'c' wave of 'b' down on Monday, I am looking for a 'c' leg to push past the 25 day and move up to the conjunction of the 50day and 100day FLDs at 1.3800. However, to get there, price will need to cut the 200day to the upside, which sits at 1.3680/85. Crossing this, should seal the deal of the journey to the 100day, but might cause price to squirm to the right, under the 200day for a bit, leaning down into the 25day and cutting the 200 & 50day over on the right. This would suggest a more complex corrective structure than the direct motion, implied by my white dotted lines. Therefore, the decision will be made at 1.3680 in my opinion, but the result should be the same - a test of the 50day FLD somewhere next week.

Those same FLDs appear as an overlay in my Regression Analysis, where the regression channels reflect the price range of the 25day and 100 day trends. As can be seen, the orange channel for the past 25 days has been moving down, but inside a rising 100 day channel - these are 'live' price envelopes wrapped around the highs and lows of the underlying trend as a standard deviation to the regression mean. It is quite clear that price needs to rest a little after that move up, and buying deeper into both the price envelope and regression channel, nearer the 100 day (blue) perimeter might be desirable, if given the chance. If price does not cut the 25 day FLD sometime soon, next week might actually see further corrective behaviour in a diagonal formation, back into towards the lows. I think it is easy enough to see that formation between the 25day FLD and the 100 day channel. So the 'cut' of the 25day FLD is the key, and the momentum studies suggest some energy will need to be rebuilt to make that launch. As stated Friday, I am hoping for a move down towards 1.3560 to let my shorts/long cover go, so I am biased as ever. Good luck everyone.