A deep pull back in 'b' this morning looks to have set 'c' down off, so for now I am looking to lose shorts near the lower bolly band at 1.3568-1.3588, where the 50-61.8% retracement of last week's range sits. However, I do not fancy topping up my longs there until I have seen a thrust up and then a pull back to the intra day fibos. The monthly open, weekly open & daily open and daily pivot all sit in the 1.3635-1.3640 zone, so above there after a thrust and I'll be happier.
So, although the 25/50day trend cross is bullish in the above chart and a bolly bounce is the entry point, I am for now a little uncomfortable with the momentum studies. On this 60 min chart, housing the 4hr momentum study, not only does that look a little overbought to me, but price is under the monthly open and last month's low sits at 1.3585 (initial short target). Price is also failing the underside of the bullish fib line grid too, so looks decidedly weak at this point (whilst the momentum study is overbought that is!). So a test of last week's low, looks a real possibility on this monthly grid.
Now, if we look at the annual grid, on the daily chart, we obviously have an oversold 4 day momentum study here, but price has only flamed and rejected the 38.2% retracement line of last year's move once so far here, since February's lack lustre attempt. I am not saying price will push into an expanding diagonal, but I do feel there is a real chance of more bottom testing before reaching for the stars. Therefore, although I'll bank my short as close to the low as I can get, accepting the bollys may hold in chart 1, I think there is enough noise here to be wary of thumping in more longs until the coast is clear - that being a thrust above and then pull back to the 1.3635 zone. Catch up later.
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