#EURUSD, $EURUSD #Trading #Elliott Wave

Past readers may recall/be bemused by my ongoing love affair with the 85.4% Speedline/fib fan. My EW count has not changed for some while and both the speedline and momentum study suggest the count is still valid.

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Been looking over my past few posts and quite happy that my count is still valid - that is we are in a 'c' of 'B', with 'B' being an expanded flat. I suggested that the choppy action was building a diagonal and thus far, that is looking like an ending structure for the whole move. As such, I continue to look for a thrust up with the trend test being my usual 85.4% speedline - the dashed blue line at the top of the chart. This would mean having to cut a lot of FLDs, but that is what they are there for. It is perhaps easier to argue that this trend will continue downhill with other bearish counts, but I'll stick with my count for now and see what any retracement looks like. Flying back today and then some catching up to do with other projects. Hope to be back at the screens Monday.

Beautiful here in Croatia

Back next week - still looking for the 'flat' to end in this 'c' leg down - I left with a contracting diagonal in play and that looks to be about right. Is it over or not, I do not know, but northbound is where I want it to go once over.

Here is a link to my beach for the week.

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Slow action is usually a 'b' wave and in this possible count of mine, it is a 'b' wave in the 4th leg of a contracting triangle. If the low holds tonight, might just be the answer. As such, up to 1.3703 ish and then down to 1.3610 to conclude matters. We shall see.

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Very slow action into yesterday's low - have risked banking shorts and re-placing at 1.3629. So naked long from 1.3651 with fingers crossed, the low holds. If not, well, I'll have to try again!!

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So, leading into Claims then, a hoped for drop into the 1.3600-1.3570 zone to lose shorts again. If the volatility gets tighter and tighter, should be easy enough to spot the break out!

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Well, not quite according to plan. The choppy, overlapping price action continues to look like a diagonal, albeit a contracting one on the 15min chart. Looking for a new low tomorrow, before this finally turns up. Covered longs here at 1.3685 and hoping for a pump down to release lower. Still looking to be long, but been tough love all week for me.

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As long as that low holds, I am counting this as a 'B' leg correction. Slightly revised count from this morning.

P.S tidied count at 3pm

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Looks like my count from yesterday turned out well and my covering shorts are set below the 1.3647 low, so I hope they are safe now. I have added a possible 'abc' route up to follow, but generally looking for a break above 1.3743 and then towards 1.3834; these being the Harmonics of the Annual Pivots.



As far as the FLD sequence is concerned, the 25day FLD (orange) is the target zone to look out for. A breach to the upside in due course will put the bears in their place, but they make take some hibernating! Anyhow, the blue arrows mark out the initial resistance targets, depending on the pace of any rise.

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It is not always easy, keeping focused on my own thesis, when so many others are duly sharing their's too. At the moment, the bearish view is deafening, but as readers will know, I have been trying to stay long/lose shorts since Friday and the market is sticking to the lower band of the daily bolly with some gumption. However, for all the intent on show in that drop (which we had been expecting through the cyclic phasing) there has been little deterioration of the underlying trends on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. I have stripped off the price bars to lessen the noise and will let the charts do the rest of the talking. I have put the 200smas on top for comparison. Bottom line is that any reaction uphill that seems to be in line with those bigger time frames, should pull the 8hr & 2hr MyWaves, northbound. Not a lot else I can do, but wait till it happens to bank my longs higher up!!

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Looks close to a turn up: EW count suggests wave 2 or wave B is almost there.

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Slow turn, but still looking for a move a back up into the FLD peaks above.

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Looks like nesting or an expanding diagonal in the 'b' wave. Either way, looking for the top to pop and price to make its way to the next pit stop at the monthly pivot. Perhaps Monday now.

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Looking ready to breach diagonal/trend line - will be covering longs into monthly pivot at 1.3813 and relaxing over weekend.

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That is my shorts off into 1.3690 - getting choppy and looks like a contracting diagonal building. I have put the cover back under yesterday's low and hoping for the next leg up to catch before that cover is needed. Probably too early, but did not want to be late after yesterday's rise!

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The rise up yesterday counts as 5 waves on the 6 pip range bar study and this action overnight looks corrective. The expanding diagonal thought yesterday does not look right with 5 waves up, so staying conservative with an 'abc' correction after the drag down, which I'll call 'A'. Looking for price to come down to the 50-61.8% zone of yesterday's rise, to lose shorts and ride longs up further.

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Notwithstanding the pump up today, I have covered longs again. If you refer back to my last cyclic phasing post, I was expecting the 80day low on the 23rd May and had calc'd 1.3743 as a likely target. Although I managed to cover too early and am now trying to catch the turn up, price action has pushed on, and appears to be making for the 1.3621 to 1.3560 area in an expanding diagonal. Apologies for the busy chart, but worth keeping in mind. The next few days may see some bumpy action and shorts banked down there will make up for covering too early!

$EURUSD #EURUSD

I posted a more detailed monthly chart yesterday with explanations, so this one is tidied up a bit. Just wanted to point out that at approx. 1.3780, price would be at the trend line from the all time high again. However, with price at the bottom of weekly and daily price ranges and all 3 time frames above their 200smas and respective FLDs, a breach to the upside should reach 1.4200ish as a minimum in my opinion. I'll feel a lot more comfortable if price can get back above the weekly and monthly pivots in the 1.3813-1.3832 zone, but for now, the PA looks conducive to my thesis. My EW count is a couple of pages back, for reference.

$EURUSD #EURUSD Cyclic Phasing

I have been working on a study using the Monthly 200sma (gold) and two derivatives of that time frame: an FLD based on the 200sma (dark pink) and a faster, predictive FLD (light pink). I continue to believe that this pair is giving itself every opportunity to break out to the North. I could add further credence with the daily & weekly studies, but everything is here anyway. If that monthly regression channel and price envelope holds, then the price placement at the trend line from the all time high is to be given the respect it deserves, in my opinion. Of course, I am biased in following my own analysis, and trying to catch this falling knife has been of little enjoyment thus far, but at the very least, Draghi should be tested!

#EURUSD $EURUSD Elliott Wave count

Whilst price action is deciding on direction, an update on my overall count for the EURUSD. We are a little early for the 80day low to be in, but on my weekly chart (not shown), the 40week low was due in early April. I am therefore assuming that the 80day low could have formed or is likely to, some time soon. With the overall trend being bullish on the daily, weekly and monthly charts (by reference to the MMA waves), and with price continuing to plague the trend line from the all time high, I continue to look for opportunities to be long, although as I say, I could be premature and price is under both the weekly & monthly pivots. Current cover is at 1.3730.

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The 3 pip range bar study is very sensitive to trend information and as can be seen, has had little to say about the downtrend, since the turn yesterday. However, there is no retracement at the same degree as the wave down, thus far, and I am trying to lose my shorts down here.


The 20 day price envelope has been pushed mercilessly by this move down, but back at the UTL, sits the 5 day and 10day FLDs - purple and red. It is possible that this move makes for the 160day FLD below, before turning back up again, but I would be looking to off-load longs up there, hopefully without any shorts on my back. If price meanders side wards, then the FLDs can be reached without price increases, but a 50-61.8% retracement would be appreciated!

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All shorts closed and longs topped up at 1.3860. I have put my cover at 1.3830, below the weekly pivot. I am naked long from here: I have not put the EW count on this weekly price range, but I just wonder if this has been a 'b' wave down rather than a trend change. Worth a punt, even if I just get a retracement to yesterday's low or the daily pivot.

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Well, another great week! Hope it helped. I have banked half the shorts again and covered the rest, looking for a retracement bounce to repeat the whole process again.

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This is my weekly volume study. Price has been running up the UTL of the monthly bollys in what appears to be a contracting diagonal formation, with an ongoing MMA formation holding bullish. However, the OBV study has a very clear trend line with negative divergence appearing in its MACD (this is of the OBV MA, not the price bars) and also the volume study. This is of course a blunt, longer term picture, but is giving me the belief that shorting strength/moves into the monthly bollys is the strategy to pursue, especially given my US dollar EW count in the links to the right.

#US Dollar long term Elliott Wave count

This is also posted to the links on the right of screen for ease of ongoing reference.

#EURUSD

With price back in the daily Bollys, I am banking all longs from yesterday and chancing shorts naked. Given I banked a 1/3rd of my shorts last night, I am only 50% allocated at present, so will add higher up, if prices push on. As a reminder, I am looking for a turn down into the 80day low, which I also think will coincide with a 40 week low - I'll write a detailed brief at the weekend, but for now am wary of being long and less so over shorting into any rise, albeit staggered!

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Very close to breaking out

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I edged long into the lows last night but only by a small margin. The price action appears corrective and although I am looking for that turn down towards the 80day low, it appears that another drive up might get closer to that elusive 1.4000! The attached chart shows the 5, 10,20 & 80 day price envelopes, which encompass the trend and range for those durations. A move up to the 1.4000 zone would pull the peaks together and deep into the weekly bollys shown a couple of days ago. The white parallel lines is the 20 day regression and a UTL touch and push is the target. Today's plan is to lose my longs nearer there and let the then unfettered shorts benefit from any downside reaction.

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Have banked a third of the shorts here and covered the rest, so flat from 1.3916. Hoping for a move of any type uphill into tomorrow's US statements, so I can release the longs for a profit and have a another go on the shorts naked.

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This first chart shows the 20day or monthly trend by way of an MMA Wave. It has been clearly bullish, and price battered the daily bollys yesterday, whilst creating a new 20day high and pushing the 20 day regression channel (white). All very positive. However, the single purple line below price, is the weekly FLD - future line of demarcation - which provides a useful target for assessing the strength of the underlying weekly trend. I was shorting into yesterday's highs, adding to those taken lower down from 1.3876 up, due to the distance involved. That line will be at least touched, with either price or time making up the gap; that is, price will either drop to meet it, or grind side wards to burn off time.

The second chart shows the weekly trend by way of an MMA Wave and again has been bullish, but will need to turn down to reach the purple FLD below. I am also looking for a turn down to begin the drop into the 80day cyclic low, which by my calcs should at least reach 1.3743 (I'll cover this and more at the weekend). So, the overall strategy is to sell strength and look for a move down, either banking if it is short lived, or holding on if it catches fire. If price pushes hard above the 1.3965 high, I'll cover, but until the weekly FLD is reached, I am playing the short side.

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Got the break out of the diagonal: will bank yesterday's low, if reaches it today.

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Looking like a contracting diagonal - have topped up shorts into this and looking for a breakdown to begin.

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Price is pushing the daily bollys up into the weekly here (top chart), with volume (bottom sub chart) not supporting the thrust and the OBV bollys (middle chart) on overbought too. I am looking for a move down into the 80day cyclic low due 23rd May, to get going from up here somewhere, so fading and adding to my shorts - 50% allocated as of now.

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Only just updated the charts this evening with Bank Holiday Monday in UK, and it looks like walking in the sunshine was the play for today!! However, looking for a move down now and looking for 1.3743 area in due course. With the weekly pivot at 1.3844 & weekly S1 at 1.3800, the monthly pivot at 1.3813 looks a shoe in for tomorrow, if southbound can catch fire. I'll probably bank there and reassess unless price can push hard through it. I am half allocated at 1.3876 and will add to shorts above 1.3900.

$EURUSD

A phenomenal day and hope readers were able to benefit. Catch up next week.

$EURUSD

And very nice too. All shorts banked and now taking a 1/3rd allocation long. Will bank any return to yesterday's low or the daily pivot or will look to add further longs lower down. Have a good bank holiday if you are in the UK.

$EURUSD

Price continues to meander downwards, either in a retracement of the prior clean wave up, or as part of something bigger. Yesterday's daily pivot at 1.3836 was not reached but remains my target for this morning. This zone also holds the weekly and monthly pivots, which feels like a sensible resting place before NFP. I'll be out of all shorts there if it can reach down for me, as the daily pivot range will already be extended prior to the UK Bank holiday.

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Looking like a spike out of a triangle - playing short into this and expecting a return to the daily pivot in short term and hopefully much more in due course.