EURUSD: there is a bogeyman in the room!

Price action on Friday was wonderful for the account balance, but the red 10day FLD in the lower right of the chart is a bit of an issue for the bulls, I think. Price zipped from the 80day FLD to the 40day, but to move on, it needs to back test the 5, 10 & 20 day FLDs to ensure that the rejection of the 80day was not just a retracement (which I think it was of course).  So, either price is going to meander over to the right in a shallow complex correction, or it is going to work its way down in a more direct route. Either way, looking for significant upside in the short term is not on my radar.

The Pitchfork analysis seems to suggest that a failure to break higher here, may likely result in a 'b' wave diagonal pattern. The downward Pitchforks use the 1.3809 and subsequent Christmas spike 1.3892 to provide a competing picture. I think the market is still trying to decide the significance of the spike ('b' wave high or top?), with the purple pitchfork being rejected at present. Either way, unless Friday's high is taken out decisively, price action has a well defined channel to work to the downside, with break points lower down. Anything above 1.3524 is likely to keep the bullish options open, but again for now, I am more concerned with how we move back down there.