Currency Strength Analysis 2.00pm

USD (24) GBP (13) CHF (11) EUR (10) JPY (10) AUD (6) CAD (6).Intraday swings are moving the scores around but not at the top where USD at 24 out of 24 is top billing with AUD & CAD bottom. However, given the extended gains in USDCAD, it might just be worth playing the retracement back to the 'half trend line' in order to buy again. USDCAD is due its' 50day low when this diagonal breaks so following it up to watch for the break may be fruitful.

GBPJPY

Right into the target zone and sticking. I am not playing this one as I am too long AUDJPY already and using that as my proxy. But, this is looking like it is behaving itself.

AUDJPY

Here is how I am counting this bottom so far: Leading Diagonal and retracement just got done I hope, so off to the races. We shall see. I am very loaded with this pair, so all good if goes up.

GBPJPY

Moving into position near the half trend line. Looking for reversals.

CHFJPY

Taken profits on this: moved into a diagonal and with momentum cluster closing in onto a top, I'd rather wait to reload again near the bottom than sit here.

Update on CHFJPY

This was a long trade from Friday, taken at the 'half trend line' at 104.21 and added to on the way up. Price is now sat under the green 25day 'fld' and looking potent for a breakout. Summary of the Cyclic Phasing was posted yesterday.

Strength Analysis 7am

This morning's pairs have changed order from Friday with AUD strengthening as suspected. However, the stand out winner is still the USD (24), then GBP (16), EUR (11), AUD (9) CHF (8) CAD (7) and JPY (5). As such, the four pairs to keep an eye on today are buy long for USDJPY, USDCAD, GBPJPY & GBPCAD. I'll post the charts and analysis if I get a buy signal through my alert system, but as a heads up, GBPJPY is looking like a fantastic opportunity at the right price.

CHFJPY - Cyclic Phasing

This is the first of my combined Strength Analysis and Cyclic Phasing trades taken on Friday. Given the frustration of trading the turns, this combined approach seeks to join the trend after the turn has occurred, following the flow of money in the total currency market place as momentum picks up. I'll be posting the Cyclic Phasing with each pair as it comes into focus on the Strengths Analysis from tomorrow, which should provide a useful multi-dimensional approach. If you look back to Friday, you'll see that this pair came up on the Strengths Analysis and I posted the 'return to the half tend line' charts there. So just the Cyclic Phasing bit here to go with it.

On the 54month cycles chart, price appears to be in the 3rd 80 week cycle and therefore likely to be climbing its final path to new highs before collapsing (now that will be worth grabbing on the way down too!). There is nothing negative in this chart except for the momentum cluster which is pointing downhill for now, but there is no overbought nesting to concern myself with as yet.

At the 80 week cycle level, matters appear quite neat with the 4th 100day cycle being worked on now. Both the 80week and 100day regression channels are slammed upright and we have a potential low date in August; but at the 54 month level, there is a lot of flex in that bottom so following it uphill for now. Indeed the daily momentum study has already turned up and the 2day look like it is ready to follow. I am wary of the 400day trough there mind you - price has been moving across it, rather than down into it, but is not across it yet - just maybe there is a more complicated correction to endure here first, but if you look at the first chart, price has nearly cleared the 1200 day trough which may in fact be the dominant cycle.

At the 100day level, it does look like we have seen the 50day low and the strengths analysis from Friday has picked up on the possible breakout to the upside, supported by really lovely momentum nesting. I hope so!!

GBPAUD Cyclic Phasing

My phasing suggests that we saw the beginning of a new 54month cycle in March 2013 and we are still in the 1st 80week and 1st 100 day sub-cycles of that initial lift off. Price is way clear of the 1200 day fld and I would expect the return journey to test that line with gusto

The 80week and 100 day regression channels are being pushed at their upper perimeter with an overbought momentum cluster. Even a return to the 400 day fld provides ample room for profit on a return journey to the 100 day low, which is due to the the right there.

It maybe that the 75day low has already been put in slightly early and what looks like an ending diagonal may grind this out a little longer. However long it plays, price will have a destiny with its 100 day low and patience is required to enjoy the spoils here.

AUDJPY - Cyclic Phasing

I have been trying to stay long with this pair for a week now and it is just about getting going to the upside but there is still enough doubt in the 100day cycle to confuse the issue.The 54 month cycle appears to be coming into land along with the 3rd and last 80 week cycle, although at this degree time can be far from accurate for calling turns.

The weekly momentum study has reached overbought, price is above the 1200day fld and the 1200d MyWave is still formed to the upside in an upward facing regression channel, albeit price is right at the spine now.

In the 80week study, it is clearer how the 80week cycle has gone long, making up for the prior one going short. We are in the right vicinity for a turn is probably as accurate as we can call it here.

At the 100day cycle level, there is some ambiguity over whether this last drop was the 75day or 100 day low. There is life left in the 100 day cycle as can be seem by the red bar in the sub chart, but as seen above, the 1200 day is due and the 80week cycle is long. I have been playing the ambiguity long all week, in case the low is already in, given the formation of price action within the Pitchfork, which looks (with the 3 touches on the median line) to have had to work very hard already to get there. Having said that, it has been painfully slow work and I'll be looking to bank any persistent spikes uphill.

Over 200 visits today

That is my highest total in one day, so thank you all for reading. One day, I hope that more of you will post comments and join in. I am a little bored of my own voice. I am quite happy to allow others to post here once we know technical merit, etc. Thanks again.

CHFJPY

Something about that retracement zone - only 5 years work there in one line!! No more charts tonight. Hopefully see you next week.

AUDJPY

Ahhh.. now that feels better. Delayed gratification indeed.

CHFJPY

In long - lets see how this now pans out in pip terms.

Dow

This has kept going today, but as with USDCAD, I need price to make it back to the retracement cloud and half trend line to get interested again.

AUDJPY

Record for posterity before I clear the counts.

CHFJPY

With a lurch down, this pair has made it into the buy zone with a nice looking nest in the momentum cluster. This was in the Strength Analysis as a recommended pair at the right price from the 2.00pm assessment. Looking for a reversal pattern/higher low to get in here long. Here is the 1 min chart - looking for action that sticks around the daily pivot line. Not too fussy here as this is a very strong pair in the analysis.

AUDJPY

I 'll want a lot of pips to the upside when this is all over as I am working harder on these counts than any machine at the moment!! Anyhows, ending diagonal in 'C' wave just ending, pushing the (now) Andrews Pitchfork perimeter for all it is worth. Now, some upside relief please.

AUDJPY

Moved over the count one leg: still reckon on 'C' here, so up afterwards unless becomes a triple correction, or I am just wrong! Counts as a diagonal too which might call for a poke out of the bottom to conclude the 5th 'abc'.

CHFJPY

Now this is looking more like it - bit to go still though.