Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Sunday, 23 June 2013

AUDJPY - Cyclic Phasing

I have been trying to stay long with this pair for a week now and it is just about getting going to the upside but there is still enough doubt in the 100day cycle to confuse the issue.The 54 month cycle appears to be coming into land along with the 3rd and last 80 week cycle, although at this degree time can be far from accurate for calling turns.
The weekly momentum study has reached overbought, price is above the 1200day fld and the 1200d MyWave is still formed to the upside in an upward facing regression channel, albeit price is right at the spine now.
In the 80week study, it is clearer how the 80week cycle has gone long, making up for the prior one going short. We are in the right vicinity for a turn is probably as accurate as we can call it here.
At the 100day cycle level, there is some ambiguity over whether this last drop was the 75day or 100 day low. There is life left in the 100 day cycle as can be seem by the red bar in the sub chart, but as seen above, the 1200 day is due and the 80week cycle is long. I have been playing the ambiguity long all week, in case the low is already in, given the formation of price action within the Pitchfork, which looks (with the 3 touches on the median line) to have had to work very hard already to get there. Having said that, it has been painfully slow work and I'll be looking to bank any persistent spikes uphill.

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