EURUSD run down

Daily chart

The small dashed trend lines join the 100 day lows. The wide dashed lines are not ‘100 day low joiners’ and as such are seen as interim support from 'inside wave' action and possible pathways. Price is sat at the side wards ledge created by the last two 100 day lows and is likely to see a turn near here, as the 75day low is due too. It could be that this leg down has been the ‘c’ wave in a flat structure since the last 100 day low, but given the likelihood that the next 100 day low will either see a new low than this one being created or a retest of it, I am going to assume that this is just ‘a’ of ‘c’ of ‘B’ down.

240min Chart

The juncture of the 8hr, daily & weekly bollys looks like a good place for this ending diagonal to end and another leg down may just do that. The momentum cluster looks supportive of a drive up and the green 25 day FLD and the 75/100day MA band at the 8hr bolly looks like a good target in due course. This would be my ‘b of c of B’ from above.

10min chart

5 red bars continues the bearish theme but the sweeping up and down inside the weekly price envelope (red) and the ending diagonal in the last chart, suggest that buying the bottoms of the latter may be rewarded in due course, although this is against trend and likely to be the wrong side of the pink FLD and the daily pivot. Until then, selling the strength still looks good.

Dow run down

Daily chart

I have added small dashed trend lines that join the 100 day lows. The wide dashed lines are not ‘100 day low joiners’ and as such are seen as interim support from 'inside wave' action. Waiting for a turn down into the 75 day low and then the 100 day low. There seems to be a symmetry about the decline from the top that suggests the trend lines marked with blue and red arrows below 'fit' the time structure. Of course, I may just be seeing things!! For now though, the daily momentum study suggests a 'B' wave has been unfolding.

240min Chart

I have been so bold as to have assumed that this ride up is in fact a 'B' wave and thus drawn in a new Pitchfork (Andrews), which may be premature but I can always remove it if need be. The momentum study is looking overbought and would support a decline from here, but this drive up looks solid so far. Interestingly, the median line is at the junction of the 25day FLD trough and the 8hr bolly perimeter. This will mean having to cut the minor trend lines created in the ride up, so the price action around those will help clarify whether we go now or later, if at all. The 75day/100day trend lines sit in between too, and a solid drop trough them may help to dispel the bullish set up in the next chart, or not as they case may be. No surprise then, that approx.  15000 is decision time again.

10min chart

Those blue bars in the sub-chart continue to suggest that the trend is up as they cover all the Hurst Cycle MA crosses up to the 50 day trend. As we can see in the last chart, price is also above the 75day and 100 day MA band too, but the pinch there suggests vulnerability and would turn down with any pressure from below. The hourly momentum cluster has been rolling around as price ground uphill but the price envelopes suggest the weekly (red) trend is changing here. For how long is another matter of course, but while price and the daily price envelope (green) remain in the lower half of the weekly channel and more importantly below the pink FLD, there is an opportunity for those blue bars to start turning red. There is always a decision to be made as to whether to follow the main trend or play for a turn, and there is enough information here to suggest the latter is worth hanging on to for now. 14.00GMT is the daily decision point and looking for this downhill dribble to start gaining some traction.

EURUSD

Buy signal just come in. Looks like the 75 day low is around here somewhere and worth looking for higher lows to stick above the daily pivot, accepting this is very early days if it is a reversal.

USDCAD

Just got sell signal on USDCAD. However, might be worth considering as a contra-trade, when weakness peters out as the trigger line price action suggests this is a retracement move in a diagonal formation, possibly looking to touch the green 'fld' in the first chart.

AUDUSD

Just got a 12hr buy signal on this, if recent retrace holds. Closer to the trigger line is preferred, so this could be just the 'b' wave up. Regardless, worth keeping an eye on this signal and if it fails, picking up the next one near the pink FLD.

Dow

Proof in the pudding is coming at the pink line - the FLD/trigger line. If price can push through that, we may see something a bit more committed. Note the groupies that joined the party to the upside - all the way to 50 day trend cycle. Will they be needing to sell or not is the question but plenty of meat on the bone now I think.

Dow

Price continues to grind higher into the 8hour bolly and towards the daily, and as discussed yesterday, the trend has turned '5 bar blue' - that is, the moving averages used as proxies for the Hurst cycles from 1.5625 days to 50days are all crossed above each other in a bullish stack. Now, whether this is the last vapors of a 'B' retracement or the basing of a new leg up is for the market to decide but we are getting long in the day now for a turn down. Price is poking its nose trough the 25day green FLD which sets the scene for a decision at least. The second chart shows the first 1.5625day/3.125 day band of the '5 bar panel' and it remains up and bullish, above the pink line which is the FLD for the trend, one lesser degree again. Price has to cut down through both of these to get matters waterfalling down and for now, price is doing a good job of avoiding that. This however is the same set up as the previous 'b' at 15344, so we are getting close to something for sure.

Dow Elliott Wave Count

Here is what I think is happening from the top as is.

Dow

Some weakness appearing as the 2pm watershed comes upon the markets. Price has to clear the orange FLD trough there and take out Friday's low pretty sharpish in my opinion, or matters are going to turn bullish for me. The green FLD on the last post will get cut to the upside and the red bar in this chart will turn blue today otherwise. That is the 25 day trend remaining bullish and crossing an already bullish 50day trend line. There would be another check back for sure in due course to test matters but I'd prefer a clean decline today/tomorrow rather than bounce about again before pushing to the upside instead.