Dow

Using the 'rough puff pastry' version of the Cyclic Phasing, which looks to monitor rolling 100 trading day cycles only, price is reacting to the 50 day low and will roll into the 75 day low next. I am counting the move up from that low as 'ab-abc' with price still under the green 25day FLD and pushing the 60min bolly band this morning running into the 2pm watershed. Looking for a 1000 pip drop to complete a Leading Expanding Diagonal, albeit it will of course be in an 'abc' - so 'a' into the 75day low and 'c' into the 100 day low.

EURJPY

Looks like plenty of upside potential on breakout of trend line on 2nd chart and assuming diagonal on first holds.

Dow

Family situation stabilized for now. Leading Expanding Diagonal dropping wave 5 down to the weekly Bollinger. Just need the price action to confirm of course. As long as that light green 25 day FLD holds price to the downside, this is my plan for the week.

Taking a few days out

Immediate family rushed into hospital last night and all quite serious. Will be back when I can think straight.

Dow

As discussed earlier, price would probably be making its decision at the monthly median zone circa 15000 and here we are. The momentum cluster looks like it has only just got going here and the 60min bolly band has been brushed aside thus far. Next ledge looks like the trend line at 14900 which if broken, should usher in further acceleration. Whether it would do that tonight, is another matter, although the 4hr bolly is at 14800 and might make a comfortable bed for the weekend. I make the 'b' leg of a possible expanded flat at 139% of 'a', so just possible this is the big ' b down to test the prior low.  I'll just keep following it down with the 1.5625 day MyWave and hop off if it collapses.

Dow

Quick reminder of what I thought might happen earlier in the week and where we are now - pretty darn close so far.

Dow

Not a lot going on on the surface but plenty going on underneath I am sure. First chart shows price above the monthly median zone which sits in the 15000 area, which also houses the trend line from the last low. Whether this turns out to be 'c' up complete at 61.8% of 'a' or a 'b' up at 125% of 'a' down or 'a' of 'c', remains to be seen. The descent down will help of course. 2nd chart shows price seemingly in an ending diagonal of some sort, rolling a long a ledge under the 1.5625 day trend line. The 1.5625 day median zone and 25day trend line all sit in the 15000 area along with the 60min bolly lower band. The storyboard is likely to unfold one of two ways, I think: either price bounces there or pushes on through. Don't know till it happens, but I am short into it regardless. The 3rd chart shows my new study alert. It is a 24hr wave made up of 3hr trend lines. It uses Predictive Averages and does not lag at all. When all the lines are stacked bullishly, I get a blue line at the top of the screen and when bearishly, a red line at the bottom. I get an alert when the 3hr pushes through the 24hour in both directions, hopefully picking up retracements into trends and changes of trends. Assuming my bigger picture analysis is worthy, these shorter term mechanizations should help to keep me out of pulling the trigger too early... we shall see.

Dow

Slight poke out of an expanding diagonal suggests time for a decline. Interesting times on the Dow with it trying to decide what it is going to do. Firstly, on the first chart the bottom bar in the sub-chart is red - this is the 25day trend being below the 50day trend line. However, the 25 day trend is actually positive at present as can be seen in the main chart - thick red/blue line. In the 2nd chart, the 50day MyWave is getting thrashed about and if you look carefully, this is also blue for bullish. So we have 2 trend lines of some repute both bullish but in a bearish stack. I'll take this as a retracement in a bearish trend as a result, but acknowledge the reverse could be true too. My EW count is on the 2nd chart and has not changed since last week, albeit the guess as to how matters might pan out, seems to have come good so far.

Dow

It might be Independence Day and the market closed, but the prices continue to jiggle. The 1.5625 day trend line is supporting price at the moment and price action has taken the underlying moving averages to a 4bar bull,  but with it's orange fld, the daily pivot and the price channel median zone, a 100 pips lower or more, I'll add some shorts here and see if the quiet day grinds down instead of up.

AUDUSD

Looks like there is a chance of this sticking down here. I have applied Pyrapoint at 22.5degrees to the last 25day cyclic low to see if it provides anymore clues as to pathways. Seems that if 0.9085 can be recaptured, 0.9325 or 0.9568 would be viable targets as certainly fits the cyclic phasing and FLD analysis. A continued drop however into the 100 day low would likely be targeting 0.8848 at 45degrees from the last 25day low.

Daily Currency Strength Analysis

Daily CSA has just been posted; plenty of 5 bar trends to catch at the right place. AUDUSD continues to be the best pair to sell but since yesterday morning, I have been trying to catch a reversal, so far without success!

AUDUSD

Running a bit behind this morning trying to eek out a count on the overnight action. As far as I can tell, the expanding flat is not happening and we are just finishing another 3 wave leg downhill within the larger contracting diagonal. I'll wait and see what the upside momentum looks like before trying to locate that in the bigger picture. What is throwing me a little is the 100 day low target being a couple of weeks away. Can not see price just continuing to descend into that without a retracement and that is why I thought the expanding flat was on, especially with the 25day FLD (green line and arrow) immediately above. So, I am still holding out for a strong drive up and will re-assess when it gets underway.

AUDUSD

Looks better as a contracting ending diagonal in the 'b' wave, I think. Lots of coiling down here and can not wait to collect the return on time invested here. Have posted the complete count for this pair for the whole correction thus far, which I am counting as an expanded flat, 'C' leg to come.

AUDUSD

Almost there. I make it the 4th or 5th leg inside the ending contracting diagonal in the 5th leg of the expanding diagonal in the 'b' of the 4th. There you go. Up in 'c' to complete wave 4. Then down to conclude the 100 day low further out in July.

AUDUSD

That went then; still looks like a corrective move in an expanding diagonal 'c' down, this last drop being the 5th. I am re-entering long at same price as taken out here, although anticipate further grinding, maybe down to that 0.9125 Harmonic Octave there, where leg v would be longer than leg iii in the ED and closes the gap on the left from Sunday. It is slow work, so rather be in than not for the leap up if it is coming.

AUDUSD

It is either going to hold or it isn't. I have added shorts with all out at 0.9149, just below this morning's low. If this is,  a-b up, then 'c of A'  should get price up to the bolly band at 0.9285 or more before a bigger 'b' wave commences. We shall see. Could be out sooner!!

AUDUSD

This morning's long entry looking safe at the moment and stop was quickly moved to breakeven at 0.9162. I have drawn in a Pitchfork off that low and targeting the 0.9375 Harmonic Octave, in the higher reaches of the Pitchfork. If this is a 'c' wave up (albeit in a corrective of the main bearish trend) it should have some energy to it.

Daily Currency Strengths Analysis

A permanent link has now been added to the right of the screen for accessing the daily CSA report.

Currency Strengths Analysis 8am

Here is the spreadsheet for today's CSA. I have removed the '5 & 4bar' columns and colour coded the pairs instead that are 5 bar trends; red for bearish trend and blue for bullish trend up to 50days in duration. Although it is obviously preferable to trade with the trend when safe to do so, it is also fact that in order to record a strong trend, there are times when that move is a bit leggy and will retrace strongly too. Best of both worlds, staying with 5 bar pairs regardless of which way the subsequent analysis says to go.

AUDUSD

Looking to buy this as a 'b' leg down here, with a 'c' leg up to go, into the green 'peak'  marked on the 1st chart

AUDUSD

Banking this spike down and re-look at on a retrace later.

AUDUSD

Alternative count it was then. Same outcome but quicker to it I think. Looking for new low when this is over.

AUDUSD

I don't like 'b' days!! Anyhow, I have moved again to breakeven but gotta feeling this may turn out to be red ' b' ready done and this is in fact green ''b', likely to move on up into green 'c' and red 'c'. I am not chasing that uphill if it is, so will have to try and catch a short higher up. Otherwise, I am still short for now and looking for 0.9150 as currently counted. If that pans out, then there is room for catching a 'c' wave up on a retest but will have to wait and see.

Alternative:

AUDUSD

Game plan: Chart 1 - looking for this leg down to be the 'c' of  'b' at 0.9147 creating the lower axis for a Pitchfork, (chart 2) driving a 'c' leg target back up between this mornings high and R1. If this goes well, then down, up and then down again for the days work complete - I hope!!

EURAUD

Looks like all the favourites from this morning are priming for a move. EURAUD seems to be correcting this morning's jump and working its way into the trading zone. I am in AUDUSD for now, so see if this waits for me or not!

AUDUSD

This was another '5bar sell' from the CSA this morning and looks to be setting up for a short whilst pace looks corrective. This looks like it is working its way down into the 100day low via an ending diagonal, not due to end until the 19th July.  Think I'll start picking up shorts from here.

GBPUSD

Not getting anywhere this morning - Mondays! Okay, looks like a diagonal building but maybe premature, so wait for chance to short again near top of this formation or if price works lower at this pace, maybe look to go long again. Moms certainly look like short is the way to go unless momentum picks up again. But at the moment, out for nothing and waiting.

GBPUSD

Not as close to the daily pivot as I would have liked but this does seem to be wanting to move uphill quickly, supporting my CSA posting just. I am already at breakeven with the stop behind that trend line and will just walk away from the screen now for a bit and hope.

GBP Cyclic Phasing

On the basis that the low is in fact the 75day low (3rd 25d cycle within a 100 day cycle), quick summary of the bigger picture analysis. First chart shows the gold 54month cycle beginning in May 2010, rather than the more obvious 2009 low; this being on the assumption that the rather neat pattern since 1996 (not shown here) has continued to hold. This 54month cycle is not due to bottom until the end of 2014, although at this degree, timing can be just a tad out. However, the 80 week cycle (white dashed) seem to be honouring the need to fit 3x80weeks within this 54month cycle and we seem to be in the 3rd one now. So that 80 week low of March 2013 is a key low. This is shown in more detail on the 80week chart (2nd one) where the subsequent 100 day red dashed cycle is begun at the same date, being the 12th March. The 4th 100 day low is not due until 29th July and if this current low is the 75th day done and dusted, well then the 'c' count uphill may be on. Of course, I am trading against the 5 bar red bearish trend, but that is the whole point: they are your friend until they are not and cyclic phasing provides some substance to the counter trend trade, even if it ends up being wrong!! The 3rd chart shows the 100 day cycle broken down into 4x25day cycles, and as can be seen, the momentum cluster and timing zone appear ripe for a reversal. Whether this is it or not, I do not know but whilst price is above the daily pivot and median zone of the price channel, then worth a punt to me, although I do not like trading against 5 red bars at all!!

GBPUSD

Plenty of action, but can not get on this so far. Looks like the low maybe in, as per cyclic phasing analysis, but waiting for a retracement that gets me in near a low. That looks like 1.5182 today, but may have to settle for under the daily pivot. Hope it lets me in.

GBPUSD

Wrong time for a school run! My break even stop got taken out. Looking to buy that low at 1.5165 for 5 pips risk. Recall the search for the 75 day low in previous post. Not saying this is it but maybe worth a go!

Dow

Not much change from count on Friday. Looking to sell this below the daily pivot. Count seems to be working out just fine so far. However, note the bigger picture game plan on higher time frame, making this drop probably part of a 'b' wave in a series of 1-2's.

GBPUSD

Price moved into the median zone of the price channel and the hourly momentum cluster is supportive of a trend line break to the downside and the MA band is negative too. Given the 5 bar bear trend, I am in short below the daily pivot but wary of the push into the 75day low on the cyclic phasing analysis and the positioning of the 4hr to daily momentum cluster.

Currency Strength Analysis 7am

Here is the updated CSA for this morning. US$ remains strong against all others but AUD continues to be pressed down with all the others scoring close. Will keep my eye on GBPUSD and AUDUSD this morning, along with AUDCHF,& EURAUD that became 5 bar trends overnight and having the 2nd highest scoring partnerships