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Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Monday, 1 July 2013
GBP Cyclic Phasing
On the basis that the low is in fact the 75day low (3rd 25d cycle within a 100 day cycle), quick summary of the bigger picture analysis. First chart shows the gold 54month cycle beginning in May 2010, rather than the more obvious 2009 low; this being on the assumption that the rather neat pattern since 1996 (not shown here) has continued to hold. This 54month cycle is not due to bottom until the end of 2014, although at this degree, timing can be just a tad out. However, the 80 week cycle (white dashed) seem to be honouring the need to fit 3x80weeks within this 54month cycle and we seem to be in the 3rd one now. So that 80 week low of March 2013 is a key low. This is shown in more detail on the 80week chart (2nd one) where the subsequent 100 day red dashed cycle is begun at the same date, being the 12th March. The 4th 100 day low is not due until 29th July and if this current low is the 75th day done and dusted, well then the 'c' count uphill may be on. Of course, I am trading against the 5 bar red bearish trend, but that is the whole point: they are your friend until they are not and cyclic phasing provides some substance to the counter trend trade, even if it ends up being wrong!! The 3rd chart shows the 100 day cycle broken down into 4x25day cycles, and as can be seen, the momentum cluster and timing zone appear ripe for a reversal. Whether this is it or not, I do not know but whilst price is above the daily pivot and median zone of the price channel, then worth a punt to me, although I do not like trading against 5 red bars at all!!
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