The second monthly chart here focuses on the RSi study, which I posted during the week and clearly warns of a test of this down draft at the very least. Ignore the rest of the chart, which is meant for lower time frames. The previous RSi cycles at this degree, set off higher highs; whether this one will remains to be seen, but downside seems limited without a reset of some sort.
In this weekly chart, the annual pivots and their mid lines are in show. Breaching last year's low of 8354 will require price to push past the 78.6% retracement of the move out of that low and with the annual pivot at 9953, the current wave count assumed down from the top, the monthly RSi study in the last chart, and the weekly SMi study in this, chasing the downside may be painful for shorters who hang around too long. With three weekly candles attacking and holding above the 78.6% retracement at 9234 and the annual mid pivot of 9525, these aforementioned studies provide a platform for a test of the annual pivot at 9953, and then the higher 10752 and 11552 pivots initially.
The daily wave formation is of course bearish still, but those positive divergences in the RSi have me watching the lower order waves.
The two hour wave held firm on Friday with an interesting bounce out of daily S1 after the US announcements. Further ferreting of lower prices may still test this bullish wave, either compounding the positive divergences, or collapsing the wave. For now, looking to buy drops whilst the formation holds and keep an eye on the impact on the daily wave. Expect volatility to continue either way.
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