Weekly Charts
Assuming wave 4 is completed at the 8351 low, then the wave 5 target of 262% of wave 1 sits in the same zone as green C & blue C from the prior swings. Next week's price action should help to clarify whether wave 4 has in fact ended, as will be seen in the later charts. MyWave is still bullish and there was positive divergence going into the bounce.
The weekly Solar Cycle chart shows a price recovery back over the pink trend line and the moving averages all returning to blue. The drop into the 11 year 'average' solar cycle median may indeed have ended, with the next target zone being the 5/2016 'long cycle' average marked out in green. Obviously this 14 year cycle requires more confirmation, but the RSi looks like it has room enough to do that in due course, and a bull run into the end of 2015 seems to fit with the Fibonacci targets set out in chart 1.
Daily Chart
The daily chart continue to show a bearish MyWave, with the stochs still down, having hit the pitchfork upper perimeter and the price envelope. However, the lower order time frames suggest a lot of energy has already been absorbed in this move down, so a break above that zone would fall in line with the weekly charts and force shorts to reassess.
300 Minute Chart
On the 300 minute chart, I have tidied up the short term term EW counts, with options of course! As discussed during the week, it appeared that price had completed 2 sets of 5 waves. We have a contracting triangle running out of that Pitchfork/daily price envelope bounce, which could be a wave 4 or a leading structure. As stated in the first chart, the week coming should help to clarify what the market wants to do, and the price action on Thursday/Friday was showing a lot of hesitation. Given that price has made it to the 50% median zone of the 2-6 month high to low channels and held that area, whilst stochs burn off their overbought status, the lonely 1 month median (red) might need to start rising. It is easy enough to see that the contracting triangle has in fact been reacting/dropping to the monthly high channel perimeter above, but I think, that is the one that is going to be batted uphill in due course.
60minute chart
There was a triangle on the 60minute chart on Friday, coming into plain view, which suggests a 'b' wave in 'C' for this drop. I am anticipating a continued drop on Monday but have not made up my mind if I want to short it. The price action showed little signs of willingness to drop last week, hence the triangle, and I prefer to see the contracting triangle in the 300 min chart above, break to the upside and start loading up long instead. The bearish MyWave on this time frame should be honoured, but a sharp break above that, falls in line with my bullish interpretation and should be quite clear to see in due course. Buying in anticipation of that is of course the hard part!!
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