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#dax $dax weekend review

 Monthly Chart: Starting with the main trend, it is still up as per MyWave (blue arrow in main chart) and has seemingly survived the drop to 8351. RSi is still blue, the stochs are turning back up and MACD is about to clip zero again. However, of particular interest is the RoC study. Given what we have seen on the same on the 2hr chart all week, as a fractal (see below), I think following the wave till the upper resistance line is touched is a fair game plan, unless something breaks to the downside.

 Weekly Chart: The weekly chart is completely bullish on all my studies and the RoC breakout into the all time high is perhaps telling. Will it all roll down hill and take the monthly with it....well unless that regression channel breaks, not worth considering at this point in time. MyWave has also just turned bullish again, adding to the argument that the 8351 low is in.

 Daily Chart: The push into the 10000 line last week saw the stochs, RoC and two of the price envelopes all looking overbought, but if that 10048 line breaks to the upside, I think the weekly momentum will just keep grinding up from here. Last week was a killer for bears in my opinion and any holding on in will really feel the emotional pain if price darts up.

 Two Hour Chart: Price was driving negative divergence all week in the studies but nothing really gave to the downside. Of particular note is the RoC here in conjunction with MyWave. If that pinball flipper breaks to the upside whilst taking out 10048, then the RSi is in support and the MACD will tip back up - that would be right down to the monthly charts, all aligned on all studies. For me, shorting is not the way to go irrespective of EW counts for pull backs. Also bear in  mind the possible fractal repeat at this degree of RoC and what might be happening on the monthly RoC.

Two Hour Chart: I have just squashed down the studies on the same chart as above to show the price chart more clearly. There are plenty of targets to the upside for price to move on up to, related to grey'A-B' and 'a-b'. The chart looks like it needs a pull back to give print 'c' of 'a' of grey 'C' but for now, there is nothing at all to back downhill in my opinion and it could be a diagonal in five legs, not three. I'll start the week looking for 10048 to get tested and if it breaks, then the 100% extension of 'A-B' sits at 10245. Maybe there is something worth looking at short wise up there. Have a great week everyone.

#dax $dax: Chaos Theory - You Can Map Any Market to Reveal the Hidden Order

I'll be writing up the weekend Dax review a little later today but found Martin Armstrong's article on Chaos Theory very interesting in the interim. For those who read Elliott &/or Mandlebrot, this may be worth a quick read for reference.

#dax $dax

Nice drop this morning but is this turning into an expanding diagonal to force the new high above 10048? We shall see....

#dax $dax

I am out for the day in meetings, but just thought I'd post the two hour chart again - the divergence throughout this diagonal is clearly visible on the MSCD, RSi, ROC and ADX studies. With the 76.4% extension of grey 'A-B' already hit and the 162% extension of green 'a-b' just above, I'll stick with the attempts to short this high. Only small allocation, as it is expected to be a correction, but I'll take 9850 today if it is coming my way.

#dax $dax

Been out for the day and not too much happened in my absence, other than looking like the diagonal is not for breaking and is gunning gently for the 10048 high. Lots of little bites available on way up....for now.

#dax $dax

Should have been more patient yesterday but we are now in that 10000 zone. Looking to short again for a move down to 50% something (!!) but along with probably most, wonder if this will ever soften.

#dax $dax

Obviously with the US & European indices now closed, volume is dead. However, futures are still stalling at yesterday's high from the underside and given the overall extended nature of this rise, I am giving it the 30 pips risk to try a short from here. Possible H&S on show on the short term charts which may or may not work. In for a penny.....

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Triangle? Thrust up to complete into the 10000 zone? All time high was 10048 -how close will it go?

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Last post does not seem to have posted to Twitter. Updated chart. Price looking for 9980-10020 zone, whilst diagonal holds.

#dax $dax

The 123.6% extension has seemingly held overnight, as has the diagonal structure pushing all the price envelopes here on the 2hr chart. The 162% extension of the move from 9126 to 9524, sits at 10026 according to my calcs. Just seems sort of inevitable, being a big round number and all. Lets see if she gets there today.

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And still no reaction at the 123.6% extension of this ride up from 9126 with price holding the 9877 line for now. Could it be going for the 10000 162% extension?

$dax #dax

After a valiant bounce last night, it looks like price is testing underneath the daily 50% line this morning and MyWave on the 12pip range bar study looks vulnerable. Initial goal is the 50%-61.8% retracement of the move from 9381. Still looks like it could go either way. A pop up may reach for the 123.6% extension at 9869 first.

#dax $dax

Price has seemingly unwound the 15min cycle again and without breaching today's 50% line at 9769, so far. The 123.6% extension from the earlier post has not yet been hit at 9872 and I wonder if we have yet another leg grinding higher here. Looks like 3 legs down on the smaller timeframes and certainly nothing bearish to get your teeth into. Decision time again.

#dax $dax

Almost at 100% extension there this morning already to complete gold 'a'. Obviously, that is a clear 3 legs up to make 'a', so it could in fact already be blue 'C'. But for now, once this 'a' completes, I'll be looking for 50-61.8% back to see if we get some traction. Hopefully, the price action will help determine a 'b' wave is in play or otherwise. So, maybe a bit of topping out here and then down for a bit in 3 waves till matters become clear again.

#dax $dax

Plan of action for week ahead: pull back in wave 4 of green 'a', then up in wave 5 to end green 'a' in grey 'C'. I am then looking for a deeper pull back in green 'b' of grey 'C'. Unless price action does something to dispute this course, I'll hope to benefit from being on the right side as much as possible.

#dax $dax Weekend Review: a fractal discussion

A different format this weekend with just the one daily chart to discuss. There are previous examples of this large 'abc' pattern if one looks (1997 for example) but given the one marked out in orange dashes is so recent, I thought it worth extrapolating for comparison. The first pink dashed reaction to the 'abc' fell just a few pips short of the prior high and then fell 76.4%. The subsequent extension was a 123.6% of that pull back and also a inverse 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the original 'abc' drop. I have copied these ratios into the current reaction to the big gold lettered 'abc', but used 162% extension of the proposed drop. As such, we should see price falter near 9880, drop to 8710 and then rise to 10500. Given the purple dotted resistance line running across the top, this does at least look symmetrical. It could be that the drop fro 9880 is not quite as deep, therefore keeping the 123.6% extension ratio the same, but I think the general idea is clear. Do remember me if this pans out as stated and forget I ever mentioned it if it does not!! Have a great weekend.

 

 

#dax $dax

15 min cycle almost unwound there: is that wave 4? If so, expect push up to 9780 for 100% extension of move from 9126-9524, as shown earlier. Will it grind on up tonight?

#dax $dax

Well, only 50 pips shy of the 100% extension. Not bad with hardly a flicker of a retracement. Obviously, the market liked Draghi's inflation busting promise. Still looking for some sort of pull back but looks like the cast is set today, unless that diagonal can pop.

#dax $dax

Think we are in the final parts of wave 3 contracting diagonal here - had to drop to 15min chart to unpick wave 2 or 'b'. If wave 4 gets a 38.2% of wave3, then down to 9625 (on current high - needs to be adjusted if make new high first) before wave 5 up. Well that's how I am reading it.

#dax $dax

Still, no discernible pull back. Here is the likely reason for the strength: a break of the regression channel from the high earlier this year and now the resistance line directly above at 9780-9800 ish. Would expect that channel been exited to be tested in due course, but for now, there only seems to be one direction on this market's mind and the upward facing channel appears fresh to me.

#dax $dax

Price fell short of the 38.2% retracement yesterday, probably leaving a number of bulls waiting in the queue. If that was 'b' of this move up from 9126, then the 100%-123.6% extensions sit up at 9780-9875. However, I'll wait for a pull back in the 12pip range bar chart. Given the shallow retracement that set this last leg up, I'm am looking for something deeper towards the 50-61.8% to pick up the longs.

#dax $dax

Triangle did not hold and moving nicely into the 50%-61.8% retracement area of the last move up, which will retest the channel perimeter (pink) again. Looking to lose shorts in that zone and rise back up into the 9700 zone.

#dax $dax

Looking like a triangle building on the hourly in a 4th wave. Everything a bit slow first thing, so will have to wait and see.

#dax $dax

Nice bounce, but treading water into the 8.00pm GMT FOMC now, compared to the initial drop. Have gone flat and looking for 2nd leg down into 9325-9350 zone, where the rolling daily low and 50% retracement line sits. Goal is to release shorts down there and go long, but if price does make a new high first, I'll release longs instead.

#dax $dax

There is the return to the daily median line. Looking at the stochs however, there is an inking of another leg up coming. That does look a little like an irregular flat there with the new high today being the 'b' wave in the middle. I would not be surprised to see a 'surprise' move higher now. We shall see.....

#dax $dax

As discussed earlier, getting close to that upper resistance line again.... looking for short positions here-on-in.

#DAX $DAX

Furthe to the weekend review, I do not necessarily like the chop chop feel of the move up from 8351 but this impulse count does seem to fit with the 5's inside each blue wave. Could be corrective but with the 100%-123.6% extensions of wave 1-2, coming up above, I think it safe to assume a 5th wave in play rather than 'a' of 'C'.

#dax $dax

I'll save the bigger picture charts to the weekend but in short, the
daily chart has popped the Pitchfork I had been monitoring and launched another which suggests a diagonal structure in play on the larger scale. I have translated this down to the 4hr & 15 minute to provide me with a game plan, but I think the overall concept is lots of back and forths with an upward bias. Somewhere in the 9500-9550 might be a good place to cover longs or play for 9350, although any new high today is going to be worth watching, me thinks.

#dax $dax

The daily median line now sits at 9356 but given the lack of impulse downhill so far as the 15min stochs soften, I think I am going to get more joy out of shorting a new high into the diagonal cover above (orange dotted) before then. So plan for the day is to short from higher up or look for longs lower down. Both would be great.

#dax $dax

Do not mind if it pulls up short into a correction of this move up, but for now, still holding on to my 'c' wave down for blue 'B'. Looking at the Electron Model, I wonder. Either way, a drop of some sort is needed, if the Dax can remember how to do that!

#dax $dax

Price has continued to push the daily hi/lo channel top all day with the 50% median now at 9282. This is where I dropped my longs yesterday, so a return there will not make me feel quite so miserable! However, it is still quite possible that this move up has been a 'b' wave and that the monthly median nearer 8900 will be part of the retracement of the whole move from 8351. As discussed yesterday, the market will decide which path to take on return to the daily median; I just wished I had held my longs for a little longer.

#dax $dax

Price action has slowed down following an outside day. The daily median currently sits at about 9230, so either time decay sees that median rise to a static price or price goes fetch/check back. I am hoping it catches fire the downside but that median line will be the decision point, wherever price meets it.

#dax $dax

Just for now, not convinced of this bullish advance: giving a little more room for this to prove it is not an expanded flat in the orange 'b' wave before committing uphill. Still prefer a sharp reversal lower in orange 'C'. Certainly not adding longs until the 30min stoch cycle has bottomed out regardless.

#dax $dax

Just wondering if the count is a little bigger to the downside.....will still clear decks near 9100 if gets there and see what happens, before recommitting. Shorts are covered above 9300 for now as it is possible the turn up is already in.

#dax $dax

If you followed the weekend review, you will know that I was expecting a drop out of the triangle and the market obliged. However, I am counting that as the 'a' of 'c' in C' and now looking for another drop to a marginal new low. I am still none the wiser as to whether this is a leading pattern overall or not, but will be playing for a bounce after the next drop in any case. 9100 would be great to clear the decks and look for longs.

#dax $dax Weekend Review

Weekly Charts

Assuming wave 4 is completed at the 8351 low, then the wave 5 target of 262% of wave 1 sits in the same zone as green C & blue C from the prior swings. Next week's price action should help to clarify whether wave 4 has in fact ended, as will be seen in the later charts. MyWave is still bullish and there was positive divergence going into the bounce.

The weekly Solar Cycle chart shows a price recovery back over the pink trend line and the moving averages all returning to blue. The drop into the 11 year 'average' solar cycle median may indeed have ended, with the next target zone being the 5/2016 'long cycle' average marked out in green. Obviously this 14 year cycle requires more confirmation, but the RSi looks like it has room enough to do that in due course, and a bull run into the end of 2015 seems to fit with the Fibonacci targets set out in chart 1.

Daily Chart


The daily chart continue to show a bearish MyWave, with the stochs still down, having hit the pitchfork upper perimeter and the price envelope. However, the lower order time frames suggest a lot of energy has already been absorbed in this move down, so a break above that zone would fall in line with the weekly charts and force shorts to reassess.




300 Minute Chart

On the 300 minute chart, I have tidied up the short term term EW counts, with options of course! As discussed during the week, it appeared that price had completed 2 sets of 5 waves. We have a contracting triangle running out of that Pitchfork/daily price envelope bounce, which could be a wave 4 or a leading structure. As stated in the first chart, the week coming should help to clarify what the market wants to do, and the price action on Thursday/Friday was showing a lot of hesitation. Given that price has made it to the 50% median zone of the 2-6 month high to low channels and held that area, whilst stochs burn off their overbought status, the lonely 1 month median (red) might need to start rising. It is easy enough to see that the contracting triangle has in fact been reacting/dropping to the monthly high channel perimeter above, but I think, that is the one that is going to be batted uphill in due course.

60minute chart

There was a triangle on the 60minute chart on Friday, coming into plain view, which suggests a 'b' wave in 'C' for this drop. I am anticipating a continued drop on Monday but have not made up my mind if I want to short it. The price action showed little signs of willingness to drop last week, hence the triangle, and I prefer to see the contracting triangle in the 300 min chart above, break to the upside and start loading up long instead. The bearish MyWave on this time frame should be honoured, but a sharp break above that, falls in line with my bullish interpretation and should be quite clear to see in due course. Buying in anticipation of that is of course the hard part!!

#dax $dax

Well, I might not be able to hear anything with this wretched eardrum, but I can see a triangle on the 16 pip range bar study.

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My shorts are banked: could be corrective off yesterday's rise. Above blue line for break out?