Firstly, the trend is up, not down, at the moment, use the underlying weekly and two weekly predictive MAs as my guide (see blue arrow underneath the action and the green band). As such, I assume that the market will want to pull back into that cross over, and the hourly momentum study appears to be doing that in a methodical manner. This ties in with the 20day cyclic low that I have posted in the weekend report. So, I got my low confirmed by the MA crossover, but what is the market going to do with it?
This last hourly candle saw price just move across the weekly FLD (purple) - this relates directly to the weekly trend that I explained above, had turned up and over the 2 weekly trend. If the FLD has been breached, it suggests that the new weekly trend (up) is now stronger than the old weekly trend which was down. The next target should be the 2 week FLD (red) which is at the top of the screen and sits with the 40 day FLD. However, and it is a big however, price is now faced with a whole raft of higher ranking FLDs in the 20day, 80day & 160day versions. Price will make it back to the 10day in due course, the question is whether price will cut through these higher derivatives or slide sidewards underneath them. What actually happens will give further clues as to what the underlying trends are doing because for now, they are all down (charts not shown) right up to the 80day & 160day cycles. So, this 5/10day trend is the only bullish coat hook I have to hang the price action on, and the underlying cyclic phasing posted at the weekend, and I'll follow it up until the 5/10 band crosses back down again. Price is currently at the boundary of the regression channel that contains the recent high to low and a breach should add to the thesis.
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