EURUSD: weekend review

The next 80day cycle low is not due until 28th February according to this interpretation of the cyclic phasing. There is either positive divergence showing in the momentum indicator or substantial downside to unwind. Price is at the annual Gann grid angle; a support line but also a critical juncture. The 640day MMA is bullish in formation as of now.

 The close up of the 80day cycle shows a very organized series of 10 day lows that are coming in around the right time based on the November 7th low as the starting point. This 6th low is seemingly reaching for the annual pivot at 1.3471 and also the pinnacle of the diagonal drawn but the previous moment. This 6th low is also a 20day cycle low (see gold bars in sub-chart). Notwithstanding near term action, there is good reason to be looking for a bounce up through the 20day & 80day FLDs, with initial resistance at 1.3660 - see pink line adjoining two 20day consecutive peaks.

 This 60min chart shows all the cycle FLDs from 5days to 160days in duration, and a trend band of 5+10days. Quite clearly, the price action has been bearish and at this stage shows nothing more than Friday's testing of the annual pivot zone at 1.3471. However, the cluster of FLD peaks over to the right will all act in due course as magnets to the price action. Price has pushed down to the 160day FLD and before moving onto the 320 day FLD (off screen), is likely to have to get 'permission' off all the sub-cycles, with the 5 & 10day FLDs looking good for a near term bullish case. This fits with the cyclic phasing in the 2nd chart with the 7th high and low 10day sequence due to get started early next week. The momentum study also suggests a break to the upside is imminent, although further downside spiking can not be ruled out of course.

The 80day cycle MMA wave is beautiful but such formations are generally temporary affectations. With price pushing towards the bottom of the 80day price envelope and a momentum nesting study that looks on time for a low, again confirming the cyclic phasing in chart 2, I am looking for price to move across that regression channel and out in due course.

 This last chart shows the red 10 day cycle in a regression channel (straight lines) and its own price envelope. The vertical line is the due date of the 10day low (also 20day low in this case) as forecasted in the 2nd chart above. The blue/green bands are the daily bollinger bands. All in all, my money is on a bounce and hopefully not just a retracement.