EURUSD: weekend review

Emphasis this weekend is on the Cyclic Phasing from big picture to little picture. I have focused on this, given the bearish tone elsewhere and my own more bullish interpretation of matters. This does not mean that I am right but helps to ground my thesis somewhat. Readers might want to look at my Pitchfork storyboard posted last night too.

I have shown the 8x80 (640day) trading cycle for EURUSD since the pair began. Of interest is that we are in the 8th of those 8x80day cycles since the pair began or the 6th from the 0.823 low. Note how the cycles tend to run long or short, but tend to keep a uniformity that can be followed by looking at the momentum 'nests' in the bottom sub chart. This is a weekly chart, so a little blunt for daily trading! I have the next 640day cycle having a low in March 2015, but the bunching up of the last 3 cycles may mean this one will run long.

Closer in and the negative divergence can be seen as discussed last week, but we are only half way through this 640day cycle and the price action to date since that top, does not look like a change of trend to me, albeit it was of course an obvious point for a test downhill, given the trend line.

The MMA Wave on this daily chart is the 640day trend - that is the spine is an MA of 640 periods, with the shorter MAs dropping down in equal distances to provide a storyboard. We have positive divergence in the momentum study for the daily trend, with the MMA Wave looking bullish, albeit being tested. The Gann Grid for last year's hi/lo in time and price, has the action testing the dotted angle lines in a 'calm' formation. The cyclic phasing breaks the 640 day cycle in the weekly chart down into sub cycles, working up from 640, to 320, to 160 to 80 day as shown in the sub-chart. The 1.3294 low appears to have been a 320 day cycle low, and therefore the 160 and 80 day sub cycle re re-started from that low. I did not like that low as the momentum study did not 'nest' as I would have wanted, but the fact remains it was on time and the MMA Wave is bullish. We would then be in second 320day cycle of the larger 640day cycle and really only just got going, being half way through the 1st 80day cycle of that 320day cycle (albeit the 5th overall in the 640day cycle). So, I am either anticipating this to be a 'b' wave completing, before a move up to 1.41246, or 'a' of 'b' with another up/down sequence to be worked through. The 80day low is not due until the end of February/early March and can not see that daily momentum low being ignored for too long.

The 4hr chart then takes the 80day cycle from the daily chart and breaks it down into 40 and 20 day sub cycles. The green dotted lines in the sub chart correspond with the 10 day lows in the main chart coloured brown and numbered 1-8. The basic circular thesis is that if there are 8x10 day lows (4x20day lows, 2x40day lows) in a 80day cycle, then there is likely 8x80 day cycles, etc etc and back to the weekly chart. The daily momentum 'nest' is clearly shown in this 4hr chart and again is unlikely to be ignored. The positive divergence is clear too, as we move into the 5th, 10 day low in the 80 day cycle, due on the 22nd January. The 80 day MMA Wave has been in a corrective formation since the decline from 1.3831 high, notwithstanding the 1.3892 subsequent high and overall, it could turn out to be a running flat, ending with a contracting diagonal, which might run on for a while. That annual pivot at 1.3471 looks like it is pulling on the price action, but will it complete that move now or not? For sure, price is at the 80 day FLD which is in a trough, and this looks very much like the time and location for a bounce up, all facts considered. So, I still prefer a move up through the 20day FLD at 'e' and then a move down in to the 80day low for the end of February, from whatever high 'e' can muster. In this scenario, this contracting diagonal formation is likely an 'a' wave in 'c' down, made up of an expanded flat and zigzag instead. We would then get a 'b' wave back up hill through 'e' and then the 'c' of 'c' down through 'f' into the Feb end to complete the whole correction of 1.3294 to 1.3831. However, this pans out, the end of February looks like a great place to be looking to buy, so somewhere north of here  in the interim should be a good place to sell again. I have mapped out the rough timing with the blue boxes in the sub chart.

So, here is my running EW count and multiple FLD study. I.3744 is my northbound target for an expanded flat 'b' wave overall and a move down into the next planetary conjunction and cyclic phasing confluence for end of February for 'B' in 'E' complete or a lower 'D '