EURUSD

Not a lot changed from yesterday really: is it a triangle or not? If it is, it will go up, if not it will likely go down, but with FOMC today, most definitely volatile, regardless, me thinks.

 The square root progression chart from 1.2041 saw price bounce up from the lower red diagonal in the cluster, having broken up through a blue diagonal on Monday: so it looked like a retracement. However, price then hit the red diagonal above but not with a higher high and has been peeling away over night and this morning, underneath the median of the regression channel. That 1.3743 horizontal is key again (being almost at the weekly pivot position too). The main issue for the bulls is that the momentum nest looks like it might be on and with the planet conjunctions coming up, it may just be that we see the lows into the New Year rather than a new high.

So, as I said yesterday, it is all about the triangle storyboard right now. The 4hr trend is bullish (or more accurately, has been) but the flat weekly FLD cloud above confirms the corrective nature of this price action, right under the 1.3831 high. Assuming that high and the 1.3294 low holds, the storyboard is likely to morph into the correction of the whole move up with the usual fibo suspects; the 38.2% stands at 1.3611, but it will be interesting to see how the 23.8% copes at 1.3685 first.....if we get there!