48pip range bar study Price is now at the 78.6% retracement of the prior wave, having made short work of the 61.8%. At some point the bears are going to get the hint that the prior 5 wave move down might have to be counted as a 'c' wave down, but time will tell. The MMA wave continues to stay formed to the upside and price has tested and bounced away from the 144 period FLD, so for now, in 48 pip bar moves, this market is relentlessly bullish. However, there is a need for momentum to nest from this level (pink boxes in sub chart) and the flat FLD not only confirms the corrective nature of recent price action but also provides a deep target for pull backs. I have added in Elliott Wave counts in the MACD sub-chart, suggesting that we are in the 'c' wave from 1.3294 and when this ends, the momentum nest and FLD tick back will occur. If this turns out to be a rout to the downside then so be it, but there are no indications on this chart that that will be the case, and I am anticipating that 1.3294 will hold. I am already trying to position short, so come what may.
24 pip range bar study Firstly, the count. I am less concerned with what has already passed, than what will be, and the running flat for the red 'B' is an unusual beast for sure. However, it makes sense out of the 5 waves into the 'a & c' of that whole move, although it could be red wave 1 and 2 instead of course. This last drag up is very choppy and I have got it as coming into land as a contracting diagonal, along with negative divergence on the MACD and falling volume and a momentum study that agrees. If this is 'C' up, then I am looking for a 'D' leg down in an expanding diagonal formation or lower in a 'B' leg of a higher degree than the red count. If it just keep going past the 1.3294 low, then this whole formation was corrective to the drop from 1.3831, but there is just no need to worry about that at all, as the decision to short from the top of 'C' is the same. I have an a=c equivalency target of the 'ab' inside this 'C' of 1.3731, which sits at the 39degree pyrapoint line above, the price envelope perimeter and the trend line of red 'A' through green 'b'. So maybe a bit higher before coming down. The momentum nest at this degree is flashing pink and is likely to nest with the 48 pip range bar chart above.
12 pip range bar study Dropping down again by 50% in range bar duration and I have gone closer in ob the red 'C' wave count starting from red 'B' at the bottom left. We have the same overbought momentum study and negative divergence on the MACD going into the top. However, I seem to be seeing 5/3/5 thus far into that contracting diagonal rather than '3s', so prefer to count that last 3 pink waves' as an 'abc'. No matter, the point is the same. At multiple degrees, we have got the set up for a correction early next week; the only issue to clarify is whether they all kick in and to where will they take price.
Daily Price & Time chart Whereas the other 3 charts today are not time based, this one is and includes the grid based on the Gann Square from the 1.49389 high to 1.20411 low. I have already written during the week on this, so will be brief. The 1.20411 nested low to nested 1.27438 low took 180 days. We are already 176 days in from 1.27438 and no nest yet. However, it is coming. The only piece of the jigsaw missing is what price the low will be at. It does seem that the 1.3294 low is at risk in this study, but as I have said, I'll be short anyway, so whatever comes my way will be gratefully taken! From Friday's high, the 1.3294 based fib extension gives us 100% at 1.31744; a direct hit on a 45degree Gann line and the 144 period FLD on the daily chart. Notice how the FLD is flat here too, so makes for a great target.
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