Monthly chart with Gann Squares based on the all time low and high as marked by the pink boxes. Volume has been dropping into the rise from 1.2041, with the 1month momentum study (light blue in the sub-chart) getting overbought. The MMA wave remains bullish but price is still under the 50period orange FLD. So, mixed messages continue, but lean towards bullish, whilst that gold 45degree angle under price, and the MMA, holds.
The speedline and pyrapoint study tell the same story. Price has held above the 450degree line at 1.3391 and is holding above the blue speedline, with the green above. I have left the triangle pattern on the screen, but I am counting it differently in the next chart.
This retracement study of the rise from 0.8230 also combines speedlines off the various pivots but not parallel grids as in the above chart. Price is peppering the 23.8% retracement line of the rise, having been close to the 50% back in June 2010 and the 38.2% in July 2012. It is also at the descending angle line, last touched when my count of blue 'B' was created. So, lots going on in these 3 monthly charts, but in summary, I believe it is corrective uphill still, but with possibilities for breakouts, if key lines are not defended above.
I have looked at this chart a few times in recent weeks, but key now is the weekly momentum study location. It may have actually softened enough now to support a rise, especially with the MACD still bullish. Might be worth a look at the rise into the all time high on the left and how the momentum study kept looping up.
This is a speedline study on the weekly chart. There is a lot of bullish moves on here and the location of price is very much last stand for the short term bears. Again, there was reduced volume into the last rise and a MACD negative divergence, but matters do not seem to have degenerated enough to cause me to ignore more upside, even if it is within the corrective 'b' structure in the 3rd chart. The 61.8% retracement of the big blue 'A' wave in the 3rd chart is at 1.43074. If my count is correct, the big 'B' went to close to 78.6%, so a 'b' of 'C' to the 61.8% zone seems realistic, albeit it is slow work, as price is seemingly stuck to the purple speedline and the last retracement angle line.
Moving closer in the, I believe price is in the 'c' of that 'b' leg above, and trying to decide whether it is a contracting or expanding diagonal. My eye is drawn to the momentum study and could probably go either way, but a nest in due course, would set up a great 'e' leg. So, I am leaning towards another leg down in 'c' of 'D' there but it could run short and confirm the contracting diagonal instead.
The daily MMA wave is still bullish, but this rise from 1.3294 has been in reducing volume, with the MACD not supporting the wave. In due course then, some softening in prices to determine matters but I am not getting fixated on those extensions for now.
In the short term, the price seems to be following a very neat zigzag pattern but in reducing volume. The start of the pattern up from 1.3294 also allows for an expanding diagonal count, although it appears the targets are about the same. I am looking for an a=c equivalency of 1.3682 but north of 1.3650 may be worth banking early.
If we take the zigzag explanation, then 'a-b' took 202 hours to complete. There are a few more to go and the contracting diagonal to match the 'a' leg seems on to me. I have already done the counts here in the daily posts, so pop back there for more.
It is difficult to be conclusive but in general, I am looking for more grinding up, then a drop to clarify the final moves in the 'b' leg up in the 3rd chart: Will it be a contracting or expanding diagonal? Until the key Gann and Speedlines fail to the downside, I am staying medium term bullish, but with an eye on those dollar charts for anything north bound there. See yesterday's post. So, any drops in price are being used to bank covering shorts and any rises being watched for momentum to wane, to cover again.
No comments:
Post a Comment