EURUSD: bigger picture

I have written a lot about this pair over the week and there is nothing much to add for the near term picture: I was expecting a drop into a momentum nested low and we are getting one. But what happens when that low is in?

So I thought I'd look at the much bigger picture absent Elliott counts to see if there is something worth noting. And of course there is. This line we just bounced off with such fervor has been a key point since the inception of this pair and I have marked out rejection points from the past with red arrows. Note also the momentum study in the sub-chart and the obvious overbought conditions. However, also notice the rising troughs in the current condition and the prior examples. That is not to say there is not some work to be done in the weekly study to make uphill more conducive, but overbought does not mean downhill.

Looking closer in at the same chart, I have added a Regression Channel in dark blue. Note, this price reversal off the gold 50% grid line, has popped down to the median of that channel. It is an upward facing channel and a sidewards correction/triangle would fill the void to the right and keep the possible drive uphill on the cards. Something needs to burn that momentum study off without further price decay, if the bullish option is to remain viable, and of course, it is on the verge of collapse at the moment. I have then added a Pyrapoint study from the same base as the Regression Channel at 1.2041. The first 'a' wave of the first 'abc' reached the 90% line, before moving on to an exact touch of the 135degree line in the 'c' wave. I have not shown the 135 degree line as it is too messy, but it is an exact touch. Why is this important. Well, using the well worn a=c equivalency but in Pyrapoint, a match of the 90degree line in distance would get price to the 180 degree line at 1.43350, but the 135 degree line would match up at the 270 degree line at 1.5573.

Now, what gets me to thinking that this is all very possible in a 'B' of a flat correction after the initial 'A' drive down from the all time high, is the symmetry afforded by the Gann Grid. The squares are based on the move down in 'A', as noted by the circles, and the 45 degree diagonals have been quite useful thus far. However, right at the moment, there is not a 45 degree line in sight for months and the nearest vertical is for the end of March 2014. To me, this produces a bit of a vacuum and that gold 50% line is the key. Does price get sucked down or vault higher? For now, that price action at the line and the momentum study suggest down hill is the better bet but that maybe the very reason why shorts may be being cultivated to create the drive higher. Note also the recent break of a 45degree diagonal line to the upside, the subsequent back test of that and the 90degree Pyrapoint line before the move up in the Regression Channel. Above 1.3835 may see some fireworks and I hope to be taped to the rocket.