Price is still rolling around the 50% Harmonic Octave & Retracement line for the 'all time' high/low wave. I have drawn in the red triangle as a guide but we will need more PA to confirm that is what is going on. However, if this is 'b' of 'c' down being formed right now, then the correction could be a flat and only an overall 'a' leg at that. Punching string at the moment. We do have negative divergence on the momentum cluster on the weekly study and overall overbought on the monthly. My gold arrows highlight the proposed path to test the 10 year Hull MA riding up the 45 degree angles, but that is long term and not for intra-day trading
On the daily chart, a smaller proposed triangle to the one in the weekly chart is shown. It is too neat to ignore but of course could be the 'ab-ab' mentioned above, instead. I mentioned last week that I did not like the daily momentum study for the bearish case and that has been proven correct. It now looks like it could drop, but it is not overbought at all. There is possible divergence there over the extent of the rise in price vs momentum, but it is marginal. Price has reached the underside of the 200day Hull which remains red for sell and price has meandered around the 45 degree line without a crisp clip on either side which keeps me bearish overall for now. We are due a 100 day low and I continue to dismiss the 'c' low in the triangle as that low already in - I might be wrong, but for now I am looking for something more punchy. A retest of the triangle lower perimeter would coincide with the all time high/low harmonic octave at 129.4042, the annual HO at 128.73 and the reflected Gann Square floor.
There is a lot going on here but I want it all here as my daily working chart. First things first, look at that momentum cluster. If you count the 'waves' on the blue 2hr study, you can make out the 'abc's - we have either completed 'c' up or there is one more push. However, it could turn out to be an 'x' wave down for a third pop up, so I'll take what the market gives, not what I want. Either way, very overbought and of need of some relief, although only maybe back down to the red dotted line in the mom study. Watching the 2hr mom and PA tonight and early week should help to clarify the final moves up, if there are more to come. PA pretty much went according to plan regarding the FLD's last week (orange is 12.5d and pink 25d). A move back down towards them both now and the bottom of the 12.5d regression channel seems a conservative assumption to get us going. This might stall at the annual HO at 130.789, which has my shorts in significant profit, so I might bank there if PA is non-committal. The 45 degree angle line looks like a good runway for that move to get going. The larger regression channel is the 25 day version and of course is still moving downhill utilizing last month's high as its anchor. That price is of course key but there is a lot of room in that channel to take bearish action in due course. Probably the worst case scenario for bears is PA crawling along the underside of the top perimeter early week. But for now both the 12.5D and 25D trend lines are green for bullish, so some weakness would be a good start, whatever it looks like.
This 15min chart shows the 1-3 day Hulls. They do look like they are turning down but the momentum study is already looking tired. Not a lot to take from this at the moment but it might just be the start of something that sticks down hill.
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