USDJPY

Getting very tight for room down here!!

USDJPY

Different diagonal I think. Price moved down to the bottom of the price envelope and volatility range but underlying corrective nature of the 25day MyWave and the apparent transversing of the 50D fld, has me long lower and ever hopeful of a spike up or at least more diagonal backfilling to the upside.

USDJPY

Contracting diagonal appears out of the mele, now on the triangle border. Looking for this to break up but still await proof.

USDJPY

So, if this is an 'e' leg in a triangle, the break of the ending diagonal and price above the FLD & Daily Pivot, should see a thrust up get going. That should be a 5th wave after a triangle (or 'c' depending on how it is counted) but regardless, up. I think the 102.44 Pyrapoint line looks a reasonable target. We seem to only be half way through the 25 day cycle here, so some time to build a tower I think.

Dow

Shorts closed on this for a bit. Could waterfall as per move to 25 day low but I prefer te USDJPY technical's to this at the moment.

USDJPY

Low risk entry for a long here: 3 charts that outline the opportunity. Just ask if you want any more information.

Dow

Little bit more work for price to do but it is giving the impression of beginning its move into the 25 day low ( being the first 25day cycle in the last and 4th 100day cycle in the last and 3rd 80 week cycle in the 54month cycle, due to bottom in November). So, I am quite interested in the extent of this drop and the 50 day cycle reaction. So far, it is looking quite punchy and may it continue for a bit. Three charts to bring us up to date. Do ask if you'd like any further explanation.

DOW

Can someone just put a pin in this balloon? MFI dropping away on 240min but no price reaction yet or confirmation on daily. I keep staring at it but up she grinds.

Dow

Not a lot of need to write too much at the moment I Think. On the hourly chart, it does seem that we are at the end of a 5th wave extension, being a contracting diagonal in the 5th wave of an expanding diagonal. Very messy but there you go. Whether or not this turns out to be a 5th leg up at a larger degree or a 'b' leg is another matter, but still looking for a shift downhill to clarify matters into the 25 day low.

Dow

Back at that trend line again and it looks like it became the lower perimeter of an expanding diagonal rather than a contracting. Shorter term cycles look tired getting back down to this line but the 4hr upwards haven't blinked to the downside yet and as I mentioned all last week, the 25 day low is due and it is usually worth 400+ pips against the main trend, which for now is up. What I am looking for is evidence that this 1st 25day cycle in the 4th and last 100day of the 3rd and last 80week cycle, is the beginning of the roll down to the 54month cycle low due from October onwards. That is not to say that the whole of the next 54 month cycle keep that downward pressure on but this current cycle needs to complete first with a respective low. As such, 400 pips is just a starter for ten unless there is more upside first. For me,15400 is a good initial target as per then 3.125day volatility range.

Dow

Looks like it is a diagonal in 'c' of 'b' but bigger (as it usually is!) than I was counting. Whether it breaks down tonight or not, I do not know but 15400 would be the bottom of the 4hr bolly channel and a worthy end to the week but would mean breaking the new created trend line. We shall see.

Dow

Very choppy for a bit but looks like an ending diagonal in the 'b' wave after last night's 'a' wave drop. Price action is under the old high of 15540, so trying to short this, as ever, trying to catch that 25day low ride down.

EURJPY

The 60min MFI study is not responding to this spike up in EURJPY at all. I have banked longs and get the feeling the oversold momentum study in the 240min may be looking for shorts up here. Price is at the daily Bolly's so looks right. I am focusing on the Dow again though instead.

EURJPY

Had to re-enter at the daily pivot but outcome looking good now. Aiming for 162% extension of first A-B at 132.21 or the 60min bolly if holds price.

EURJPY

Taken a long with 10 pip stop, looking for continuation of trend after retrace and just breaking out of pink FLD on 10 min chart. Looking for an ending diagonal to build into a top.

EURUSD

Bounced right up to my stop. Have to wait for price to reach the bolly bands to look again. Might get a better price to short or missed my opportunity to go long. Should have banked in hindight.

EURUSD

My shorts are looking very good this morning and somewhat quicker to bloom than yesterday's trip up. I have been looking at the big strike up last week (unfortunately when visiting hospital interns!) and the question is of course, is that the whole 'abc' up for 'b'? If so, this is not lesser degree 'b' down but bigger 'c' of bigger 'b'. The chart clarifies my bigger picture count. Needless to say, I am at breakeven with my stops after the strike and look forward to the 61.8% marker as discussed in the earlier post - will it cut right through it or not??? Timing wise, the 22nd August is the 100 day low target to end the 2nd 80week cycle in my Phasing Analysis (see previous posts and summary chart below). That should be a great place to build longer term longs but for now, I am keeping my eye on this move for further evidence.

EURUSD - different EW count

Just looking at the pink 1hr momentum study in the sub-chart, matters looked overbought as discussed earlier. However, instead of a 'b' wave triangle, it might just be that we have a deeper 'c' wave pull back. Of note this morning is the poke out of the diagonal on the MFI study, even tough price has not really got going down hill yet. The 1min chart has provided a number of lower highs already and I have taken one and gone short, for minimal risk, in case we get something that sticks downhill for a bit. That 61.8% target would be a great Friday! We are approaching the lower 15min bolly band, and then the 60min median line, so we will know soon enough if we get a trending move or not.

EURUSD

Matters seem to have progressed according to our discussion yesterday, although I am glad I switched to the Dow for a little more action! If the triangle is going to hold, then it looks like an 'abc' up for 'a of d' has played  out and we should see a pull back now in 'b'. I'll track that down and see if I can't pick up the 'c' of 'd' later today.

Dow Jones

So what was the best trade there then? the 100 pips up yesterday or the 100 pips back down? Both of course, although I continue to favour shorts until we get the 25 day low, which seems to be some ways a way at the moment. I  have banked the overnight drop given positive divergence appearing in the MFI and weakening momentum study and will see how matters lie at the New York open, hoping for a pull back to the Daily Pivot or more to short again. Overall though, yesterday's new peak does not dispel the feeling I have we are playing out an expanded flat in a 4th wave rather than the 5th.

Dow

Whilst the EURUSD is milling around doing nothing, that diagonal on the Dow was perfectly shortable. If anyone wants to look back at the Dow Cyclic Phasing chart and see how many pips tend to be associated with moves into the 25day lows - can not always get the right drop but as long as they provide safe exits each time, definitely worth the effort to me.

EURUSD

Do we have a 'b' wave triangle in play? Might take it careful with longs at 1.3170.

Dow

Well, I can not believe it has taken me so long to unpick this top but reckon we are on verge of fall here. I count that as 5th in ending diagonal, just making a new high.

EURUSD

Trying to keep on this has been a bit messy to say the least but looks like 'b' may be completing at 'a=c' within side. Targeting 1.3250 at the 61.8% extension of red A-B.

EURUSD

Good start to the day. Have moved to breakeven with stop at 1.3100 which may be too tight, but a break up through the FLD and 60 min bolly band median line, just above price, should see the daily pivot quick enough. Fingers crossed.

Dow

Well, that is more like it. Will start looking for shorts now we are up at the bolly band. Do refer to previous posts on cyclic phasing and the awaited down turn into the 25 day low.