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Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Tuesday, 25 June 2013
Dow: why a sharp descent?
A question from Anonymous regarding my qualification of a 'sharp' descent. If we look at the 8hr chart, the Pitchfork off the top and its retracement, have price sat underneath the median line and thus far held there through this flat retracement. Note, that price is underneath the pink line - this is the 100 day fld. The fld is the 100 day trend, shunted forward by 50 days. As the 100 day trend is currently turned down (stripey blue wave)(along with the 25 day which is down in the second chart), the fact that price is under its fld makes this a strong contender for a continuation. This being that the current trend is weaker than it was 50 days ago by price being under the fld. In addition, price has tested and bounced back from the 400 day trend line - this is a big trend, although not as big as the 54 month one I use too. Given this is the first attempt at the 400 day trend and given price is underneath that median, I anticipate an ending diagonal into the void to test as much as possible or a double bottom. Visually, this whole move down from the top still has the look of an 'abc' retracement, but would expect the 'c' wave to end with an ED. As such, I think we may be seeing legs i & ii of that ED with iii due next. The second chart shows the lower degree Pitchfork medians and a failure here may see a return top the lower one at 14400. What may in fact happen is that the 400 day trend gets taken out instead of this being an overall retracement and we get a waterfall count instead (1-2s). Of course, I may be wrong too! This looks like an ED to end 'c' of 'ii', so we should see something downhill pretty soon!
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