Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Wednesday, 5 June 2013

Cyclic Phasing for GBPAUD

Given the propensity for cycles to run long and short and become quite blunt as a forecasting tool the longer in duration one attempts to plan, I have been playing around with 'rough puff pastry' versions of the art. I have found nothing to follow on the matter, so take it for what it is! Rather than start out at the 54month cycle and work in, I just go straight for the 100day cycle here and see what happens. Anyhow, GBPAUD is showing only one realistic low over the last 100 days, that culminated in a momentum 'nest' and I have begun the red dotted line from there. The green dotted lines attempt to bridge this 100day period with 4x25day cycles (or 2x50 if you like). Following the likely energy sources of each leg up, the 25day cycles seem to be running to order. If correct, this would bring the last 25day cycle into land bang on the forecasted 100 day cycle due date of the 9th July. Anyhow, one might see why I have persisted in holding on to as many of my shorts as I could. Note that the bottom of the 100 day regression channel sits at the Harmonic Octave of 1.5313 at about the right time, being also where the 100 day 'fld' sits. As this would also be a 50% retracement of the whole move up, I'll take that as a reasonable medium term target.

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