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Please make sure you have read my disclaimer! This is a personal journey into self-tutoring in technical analysis. Did you read that Disclaimer yet?
Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Thursday, 2 May 2013
USDJPY Bigger Picture
I am now at breakeven with my stop, now the triangle break on the lower time frame has broken to the upside. Although there is a long ways to go, here is my rolling EW thesis for USDJPY. Of particular interest is that legs A & B followed the 224 day cycle to within 1 day and therefore I have to work on the assumption that the next 224 day cycle date will usher in a significant low too. I have marked out that potential process into the end of July/early August zone. The EW count fits that outcome, so I'll go for leg 5 up in an ending diagonal to end 'C' or possibly '3' if legs A & B are recoded 1 & 2. That would make the leg down a big 'B' or '4' in due course. Given big 'B' or 'recoded 2' was shallow, must expect the drop to be steep. This be why I think the ED is right way to go here as early shorters get stretched uphill. From the counts I have seen elsewhere, there are plenty of shorters looking downhill already!
It is all make believe until it happens, but I'd be happy to be on the right side whichever way she goes!
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