Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Friday, 3 May 2013

GBPUSD - keeping matters in perspective

I have tidied up the cycle periods to read a little easier - for me that is! It makes for summarising the storyboard a bit more linear. As GBPUSD turns down here, I am trying to keep in mind that if the cycles are being analysed correctly, we are only targeting a 25&50day low. See how the daily chart seems to be following a relative neat 200 trading day cycle and therefore its sub cycles must also be in alignment. The daily RSi is under no stress whatsoever and a return to the trendline maybe all we get. On the 360min chart, it can be seen that the 100day gold 'fld' was cut and backtested over the 18th-22nd April and if the upward momentum re-engages after the due cycle low, price is likely to be targeting the 200d.fld as the next sequence on the ladder. This ties in nicely with the 61.8% retracement goal of 1.5766 on the 29th May to be exact. We are topping here on the 12hr momentum cluster and RSi has turned down a while back, suggesting that the 25/50day low is on the cards. Will price be held up by the 25&50 day fld.s at the green dashed trend line? That would be very neat indeed, but perhaps a dash for the 100day gold fld and a retest of low might be on the cards too - depends on the pace of matters and thus far, it is hardly inspiring given we have made a 50% retracement already. So, trying to keep matters in perspective. Until that 100d.fld is broken, I am assuming that price wants to go up to the 200d.fld and the 61.8% retracement level, rather than collapse, making this a 'b' leg down. We shall see.

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