Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Friday, 17 May 2013

EURUSD

Quick catch up on the bigger picture. On the first daily chart, see the blue MACD in the sub-chart. This helps me to see what is happening to the 400day MyWave when it is compressed - as the MACD is blue and this correlates exactly to the spine of the MyWave and the next MA line inside, I know that the MyWave is bullish for now. Now look at the momentum cluster; price has already had a nested low (a cycle low) circled in red to the left on this timeframe. These happen regularly and uniformly. As such, I am not expecting another nest right now and any interim low is assumed to be 'mid-wave'. Given the daily momentum line in green/blue is bottoming out, I would be looking for any retracement move to be ending. This all leads me to believe that this move down is a correction and that up we should go. Price is also falling into the 400day FLD - the displaced MA of the MyWave spine. It is in fact slightly tighter to price that the spine is and provides a guide as to how the current trend is doing in relation to the trend, half a cycle back, which specifically came from the 1.2041 low. Price is above the purple FLD and although magnetically attracted to that trough, it is not as yet breaching the line. This suggests that the current trend is still bullish and with the momentum cluster in the current formation, we have more confirmation to look for a move up. Dropping down to the 100 day MyWave, we can see that te Wave is clearly bearish but the momentum cluster on this time frame looks in proportion to prior nests and represents in my opinion, the mid-wave low seen on the first chart. See also the red arrow on the chart where price crossed the 100day FLD - gold line. This current low has in fact crossed back below the FLD but given the momentum cluster, could be seen as a back test of that prior 'cut' highlighted by the arrow. This is also the trough of that 100day FLD and if price then jumps up and 'cuts' the 50day and 25 day FLD's above (currently in bottoming 'peaks', green and red), then the 200 day FLD at the top of the page looks like the target. Note that the 200FLD is double the 100FLD and half of the 400 FLD - natural sequencing in all its glory. None of this means price has to go up of course, but I am playing this long.

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