Disclaimer

Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Saturday, 11 May 2013

Dow Industrials

Chart 1: 400Day MyWave pushing the weekly bollys. It has got to be the worst kept secret but this market is coming down. The only element of curiosity is the bounce afterwards. Anyhow, for now, see that the daily momentum nests occur when price bounces off the lower weekly bolly band. This currently sits at the 400day.fld (purple)at approx 13000. I have marked out the previous nests and corresponding price lows. It doesn't take too much to look left and right and, assuming cycles have not been eradicated now, see that the next move down in the market should be at least of a 'daily nest' cycle level or 400day in MyWave terms. Chart 2: This steps up to the 1200day MyWave on the weekly chart and here we can see that the weekly momentum 'nests' correspond with the monthly bollinger lower band. In this case, given the lower band at 11250 corresponds with the 12000day FLD, I think, it breaks there and rattles on downhill but not too worried about that for now. Chart 3: At the 100day MyWave level, the cycle lows marry up with the lower daily bolly band, currently sat at the 14375 Harmonic Octave, and also below the 100 Day FLD. I think the move to there would turn MyWave down, so I anticipate some pushing downhill when it comes, aided by the possibility of the larger cycles covered above kicking dust into the fire. Chart 4: This is quite a stripped down chart, but wanted to emphasise how the 4hour momentum nests cycle quite regularly and that we are due a bottom to keep the rhythm going. I struggled a bit with whatever the topping pattern was/is and guessed at an expanding diagonal. The last nest was at 14685, so I am assuming between here and there has got to be the goal (or more!!). Chart 5: This shows the 3day MyWave as the blue line MMA as in the other charts, in addition to the 1day and 3day FLDs. But rather than one 'FLD' line, I am using clouds at this degree. The reasoning is two fold. Firstly, I do not believe there is any one correct Moving Average (whether Hull, Predictive, Attenuation, etc - NB. I do not use EMA/SMA but weighted MAs will get a similar result)), so I am using 3 very tactile versions in the clouds. Secondly, there seems to be some discrepancy in the literature I have read on Hurst as to whether one displaces the whole average by half its length or half the average by the same. So for example, if we assume a 3 Day average requires 432 bars on a 10minute chart, do we shift that 432 bar average by 216 bars to the right to create the FLD or do we shift a 216 bar version of the average forward by 216 bars? Rather than get anxious about this, I am using both. Across 3 moving average calculations (Hull, Predictive and Attenuation) and using two MA lengths for each, I get 6 lines per cloud - a zone if you like by joining up the spaces in between. This chart shows the 1day and 3 day clouds. The 3 Day MyWave has turned down after skipping in between both Clouds all week and late on Friday, attempted a coup or resurrection. Assuming the clouds hold price, I believe we should get that test of 14685 at the very least, but given the rest of the storyboard, I think there is something lurking in the corridor!!

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