Chart 1: Monthly trend is red for down but price has made it to the monthly trend's Displaced Moving Average; at this point the prior uptrend is at the crossover with the tail of its own wave. So is this a retracement 'b' leg from the 1.3708 top or not, and even if it is 'a' or '1' down, there is still the retracement up to contend with. Well we got a good bounce Friday night and we were into the consolidation zones from the leg up from 1.2041 (see smaller and large triangles to left of price) but there is a bit more to do to get things turned around to help us with the answers.
Chart 2: The 40 day price envelope has more room for price to fall but even so, an 'abc' maneuver might be expected to put a kink in this downdraft at least. On my mind is the continuously overbought SMi and the fact that the channel's own Displaced MA is already late in it's 'trough' and in fact is approaching a bit of a upward bump - this would be a bottoming 'peak' if price were below this line, so although perhaps a good place to touch, maybe up first, then down. Certainly the channel as a whole is turning down and if this is to hold, I would expect price to meander over the the other side to test the validity.
Chart 3: The shorter term channel is the same green 'inner channel' on chart 2. This has been pushing the bottom perimeter for a week now and is showing positive divergence on both the MACD & SMi. In addition, this channel's own DMA is showing a 'Peak' which will act as a magnet. The top of the channel at present is in the 1.3400 area, which would put price above the median line of the 40 day channel in chart 2 and start to test the motive of this whole move down.
Chart 4: Whereas charts 2 & 3 utilise channels tied directly to the price action, this chart uses fixed time lines for trend cycles for comparison. The storyboard is the same however. On a monthly basis, the trend has turned down, but has not crossed its own DMA (yet!!). To the right is both the daily and weekly DMAs and if these do not hold when tested, price will be above the monthly trend line. These indicators do not lag price action - they are very fast and do represent the median of the daily, weekly and monthly price bars. The only 'wobble' factor to be borne in mind is that the lines are medians and price will vibrate within the high low range of those price bars, around these Lines in the Sky. Friday's question really was, "will the monhtly DMA hold or not?"
Chart 5: Here is the Gann Sqaure of 9 grid (pyrapoint on Ensign)calculated off the monthly classic pivot of 1.3273. I am using this as the matrix to follow my intraday My-Wave around the storyboard, created in the series of charts. I was looking at the weekly pivot but there is little variation in the numbers to the monthly and this needs less work building. The bounce off the monthly DMA can be seen quite clearly here and how accurately too. Immediately above is the daily DMA (now in expanded wave formation) and the weekly trend line. A gap up on Sunday night will put the cat amongst the bearish pidgeons but similarly, if the monthly DMA cracks, then big popping sound to the downside! Decision time indeed.
Chart 6: In the shorter term, the My-Wave (red/blue) bounced above its own DMA (green) and hopefully sets the tone for Monday. If the My-Wave loses its DMA again to the downside, well, I'll follow it downhill instead.
Chart 2: The 40 day price envelope has more room for price to fall but even so, an 'abc' maneuver might be expected to put a kink in this downdraft at least. On my mind is the continuously overbought SMi and the fact that the channel's own Displaced MA is already late in it's 'trough' and in fact is approaching a bit of a upward bump - this would be a bottoming 'peak' if price were below this line, so although perhaps a good place to touch, maybe up first, then down. Certainly the channel as a whole is turning down and if this is to hold, I would expect price to meander over the the other side to test the validity.
Chart 3: The shorter term channel is the same green 'inner channel' on chart 2. This has been pushing the bottom perimeter for a week now and is showing positive divergence on both the MACD & SMi. In addition, this channel's own DMA is showing a 'Peak' which will act as a magnet. The top of the channel at present is in the 1.3400 area, which would put price above the median line of the 40 day channel in chart 2 and start to test the motive of this whole move down.
Chart 4: Whereas charts 2 & 3 utilise channels tied directly to the price action, this chart uses fixed time lines for trend cycles for comparison. The storyboard is the same however. On a monthly basis, the trend has turned down, but has not crossed its own DMA (yet!!). To the right is both the daily and weekly DMAs and if these do not hold when tested, price will be above the monthly trend line. These indicators do not lag price action - they are very fast and do represent the median of the daily, weekly and monthly price bars. The only 'wobble' factor to be borne in mind is that the lines are medians and price will vibrate within the high low range of those price bars, around these Lines in the Sky. Friday's question really was, "will the monhtly DMA hold or not?"
Chart 5: Here is the Gann Sqaure of 9 grid (pyrapoint on Ensign)calculated off the monthly classic pivot of 1.3273. I am using this as the matrix to follow my intraday My-Wave around the storyboard, created in the series of charts. I was looking at the weekly pivot but there is little variation in the numbers to the monthly and this needs less work building. The bounce off the monthly DMA can be seen quite clearly here and how accurately too. Immediately above is the daily DMA (now in expanded wave formation) and the weekly trend line. A gap up on Sunday night will put the cat amongst the bearish pidgeons but similarly, if the monthly DMA cracks, then big popping sound to the downside! Decision time indeed.
Chart 6: In the shorter term, the My-Wave (red/blue) bounced above its own DMA (green) and hopefully sets the tone for Monday. If the My-Wave loses its DMA again to the downside, well, I'll follow it downhill instead.
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