The thick gold line holding the price is T11 (the Trend) and the thin gold line is D11, its displaced brother. These are the largest cycles I work with on the daily charts, given the data required and visual elegance (I try!) I am trying to maintain. This is a 32 month cycle, so no mean trend regardless. D11 was cut during the bull run in 2004 and backtested, and finally held, in late 2005.
Price then dropped under T11 as the topping zone of D11 began in September 2008 and has remained under ever since - see orange markers at bottom of page. However, price has not dropped under D11 yet and as such, this whole corrective phase from 2008 should be seen as a reaction to the D11 cut to the upside from the first chart.
Price then broke under D10 in September 2011 and made a rush for D11, until it succumbed to the D10 bottoming zone - see orange markers at top of screen. When D10 was cut, so was D9 and this latter D line has held price ever since. It is a remarkable line in the sky. See how D9 is bowling out in a trough - if price were above it, this would be a topping zone for D9. With D9 unbroken, I am taking this as a 'last embers of the bull run' sign until it is broken to the upside. Of course, price could continue rolling up the underside of D9 for sometime yet. Now look at D10 and see how it is shaped in a mild 'M' shape; I am reading this as an overall bottoming zone in price action as we have seen, but split into 3 components. I believe we will see a double bottom and that D7's trough will call time soon enough and see price descend. We are at the 61.8% extension of the initial drive up from 1.2041, right under D9 and there is 5 waves within an expanding diagonal in place. This may not be the right count but this is my thesis whilst D9 holds.
I managed to call the turn up well enough in the week but jumped off the rocket at D8 and left too much on the table again. As matters stand, we do not have any sell signals at all, but from the last charts, we are right at D9 above and D1 is someways off to the right. Any opportunity to short as close to the top in place may be a very low risk entry for a substantial return, although we may just get more sidewards action until price reaches D1, and perhaps that grinding ending diagonal up the underside of D9. I have already thrown my lot in short on the off-chance, and hope for no gap up on Sunday. We shall see. If D9 breaks to the upside, then any retracements down to it may provide equally wonderful returns to go long with low risk but I am looking for a turn down at some point, whilst D9 holds above and D7 is in a trough.
The 30min bolly band needs to consolidate to provide the next elegant entry and of course, that may be up again if we get that ending diagonal underneath D9. If My-Wave turns down, then I'll start adding more shorts. Again if D9 breaks up, then different game all together.
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