Well, we got the D8/D9 confluence bounce and now we are rightly pushing D6 - A failure of D8 means D7; a failure of D6 means either D7 or D5 (as both are lower). So, D6 is key. If it is going to fail, I assume the market wants to be as short as possible for the move and that probably means price consolidates for a bit as the market gets its stops in the right place. As D10 failed in September 2011 and D9 has thus far stopped a move back to it, D11 could be on here, not just D7. The SMI forecaster has not called a bottom yet at all ahead in time and there is plenty of meat left in the SMI cluster for now. However, My-wave is far from turned down here and D6 has held so far. With D8/D9 overhead, price could be bouncing about for a bit until that My-wave squeezes.
Looks like a leading diagonal with My-Wave clearly bearish. But price is bouncing out of the 8hr bollys and I think initially to D1 for an initial rejection in 'a', nearer T4, for a deep 'b' wave there and then back up again for 'c'; rolling along the D4/D6 lines, maybe until D2 or even D3 have been touched again, in more consolidation. I have seen these long winded decision points so often with this pair so going to assume the same for now. I'll try and be ready to wave 3 down when it comes and hope not to miss it.
The intraday My-wave is bullish here and the last low is at 1.2996. A drive down to within 5 pips either side, combined with the SMI in the 2nd chart above in the oversold position, maybe worth buying if the My-Wave holds to the upside. This might pick up a 'c' wave up. Pennies from in front of buses perhaps but will keep my eyes open.
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