Please make sure you have read my disclaimer! This is a personal journey into self-tutoring in technical analysis. Did you read that Disclaimer yet?
Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Wednesday, 16 January 2013
EURUSD: 10.23
Well, gut feel to bank looks good with hindsight. Now, in the good old days (not so long ago!) I would be thinking all sorts about this price action - is it going up, will I miss out, what if..... But now, I am a grown up trader, I just watch. Firstly, T1 is facing down - this will take time to turn up if it is going to turn up and before then will need to flatten out. To do that requires five waves up and then three back to provide a low risk entry. However, price is floating around at the moment in no mans land - no where near D1 and no where D2. That lack of thrust, I mentioned this morning, is going to be giving the market jitters too - which way to go? Thrashing around like this, will cause a reaction as stops get hit and entries taken, back and forth. We are still in a downward regression channel off the top too. We have just rejected D9 for the first time after that surge last week. Bottom line, is that I need a 'D' line to work off and there is none near here. A punchy 3 waves up to D1 for a double top/steep retracement will be great for shorts and a 'cut' will be great for longs and vice verser for D2.
On the intra-day chart, we do have an attempt at a clear trend change in the short term. My-wave is cut, BUT NOT turned. This will take time. Maybe there will be chop chop sidewards action, until we get to D2 to the right - see above chart. To get a buy signal, requires My-Wave to cross over, consolidate and then for price to 'abc' retrace into into crest without pushing into the wave. If this coincides with expansion and D2 near by, then I'll post as an example of my buy signal. But for now, I wait.
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