Please make sure you have read my disclaimer! This is a personal journey into self-tutoring in technical analysis. Did you read that Disclaimer yet?
Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Wednesday, 5 December 2012
EURUSD 7.44pm
Here is the chart to follow up the 5.13pm post. This is very short term at 15sec per bar but shows the count for that 'abc'. I am short with stop above the high there and thus far there is a chance of this regression channel failing on the first attempt. The daily My-Wave on the 1min chart is looking a lot more bearish than this mornings when I suggested it was primed for a stop run - might be worth looking back at that to see how different it looks. So the first pull down this morning has done more than the last week or so to turn this wave over, albeit it has to be considered a retracement move overall at present. Note how the 4hr trend is under both the 20 & 24hr bands and that the rest are all compressed. If price continues to ferret around under the band, the My-Wave will continue to drip downhill, hopefully into that 'C' wave. Widening out the lens a little, we can see the drop has only been retraced 45% at present, so my short maybe premature and I might lose my few pips trying but the last two charts suggest it was worth ago for the reward ratio. A 100% extension of the current drop from the current retracement high, takes price to D5. To get to D5, price has got to stay underneath D1/4 (orange) and cut D1. If price cuts D1, it brings D2 back into the equation. D2 is not too far away from D3, so if D2 does not hold D3 ..... you get my drift I hope. D3 is at 162% of the current drop/retracement measurements and bang on the green My-Grid parallels for the first drop as an 'A' wave. That looks kinda swoopy to me, and why i entered short with the flimsiest of scenarios to support it. But price bounced off T4 and D1 this morning, so a retest there at least me thinks and if it pushes through, it takes out a blue My-Grid line and the next one is down at the Gann line 1.2941. Enough for tonight - I'll do the bigger picture in the morning and hope my short stop has held.
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