EURUSD: Weekend summary of near term picture

As of Friday's close, the daily My-Wave was still clearly impulsing downhill, although it had not ventured very far after the US markets opened in the afternoon. There is no trade for me on Sunday night/Monday morning until I see a reaction to Friday's move. As this last move was clearly impulsive, the next move uphill will help to clarify whether this bearish trend will continue or turn bullish. A sidewards, corrective wave will need to move back to the purple l6 line in this chart, to get me short, with a subsequent trend line break (purple T)to the downside and the MACD dropping through the zero-line. Given we have been pushing the 8hr Bollinger bands on this 60min chart, we may see price drive up through the purple trend line (T) and then up to the green 32 line instead in a sharper move. A break of this line would bring the blue 64 line into play and a stab at the 85.4% fib fan line from the 1.3138 pivot high. However, I would need to see My-Wave turnover completely from where she is right now and that requires some patience to go long! So I'll leave that for now and see what happens first. The 240min chart houses the weekly, monthly and 2monthly 'tides', and of late we have seen the weekly tide lead prices downhill, whilst the 2monthly catches up. The monthly has been moving sidewards for a while now but at worst is flat, not downhill. With the 2monthly slamming uphill and the daily Bollinger bands being buffeted right now, there is at least good reason to be cautious of a reversal uphill. The whole move from 1.3171 is clearly sidewards to this place in time, bouncing between the daily Bollinger bands and doing little to excite the MACD out of its ranging formation. Leaving possible bigger picture Elliot Wave counts aside, any impulsive move to the upside would suggest to me that we are not in a persistent move downhill right now and that higher is the place to go short again. With the 38.2% retracement zone of the 1.2041 to 1.3171 range, so close however, we might see a push for that in this current move, but I'll be led by the My-Wave rather than predict that for now. The weekly My-Wave and regression channel analysis seems to be drawing out a 3rd wave down at present in the green channel, leaving room for a 4th wave up and the downward 5th wave ending diagonal to complete the back-test of the blue regression channel and then escape the green channel. This would fit with the need to get back to the purple 16 line in the earlier chart. All conjecture for now, but interesting as ever. I'll post the longer term charts during the week, once the near term picture becomes a bit clearer.