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Disclaimer: This blog should be read as a 'whiteboard' of my daily thoughts and ramblings and specifically not, in any way, advice to trade. My interpretation of the works of Gann, Goodman, Fibonacci, Elliott, Hurst et al; is entirely my own and should be read as such. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this report are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Wednesday 21 November 2012

EURUSD 9.39am

Well this is starting to feel a little more like it huh! Been like trying to house train a boa constrictor this, but hopefully the writhing is over. Have added EW counts into the 60min chart, although still require yesterday's top to be taken out sharpish to move everything along. T4 is clearly pointing uphill now and took both those 1-2's to do it - the flatness of it before on the turn was a subject of previous discussion and T6 now looks about the top of the volatility envelope, so a realistic target. D4 is going to have to be dealt with first though, on the way to D5. Although I would feel better banking at D4 and looking for a roll down the underside, it could quite easily pass straight through in a thrust and then fold back over the right hand side like a feather. This thrust through could be worth 50pips more, so I'll keep the 1.3020 target in mind for now and see how close we get before a pull back - an ending diagonal for wave 3 would help tighten the first exit! Interestingly, the 85.4% fib-fan of the move down from 1.3171, sits at D4, so could be formidable resistance or hot butter through knife; the latter would fit with my prior comments. Above yesterday's high and we should have cracked my blue grid wall, leaving the red grid wall above in its sights. A move to there in wave 3 is going to make that gold dashed line from the weekend report, a realistic target for wave 5 in my mind - will look at calculations nearer the time. In the bigger picture, with D7 beat (if it is so), then the D8/D9 confluence at 61.8% extension of the possible 'A' wave up from 1.2041 to 1.3171, is my next longer term target after the gold dashed line in the prior chart. That is 1.3355. Another move down though would post pone the bullish count until a likely 5th wave is completed or more consolidation of course but I put that low on my options for now.

1 comment:

  1. I also hope you're right too. Let's see if this useless euro can push it through using the opportunity of holiday thin liquidity.

    F

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